I saw the supply chain disruptions coming and made final preparations for it, I saw layoffs coming in my aviation-related job so I updated my resume, took a good severance package, and found a new, remote-based job with significantly higher pay. And yes, I also significantly re-balanced my portfolio and took advantage of the crash early this year. In all, I expect about 40% additional income/unrealized gains this year than last. To me that's more than minimal.
Rationalists that were paying attention get the 1st chance of understanding the ... (read more)
Good question.
* on the first date I do lots of flattery, both verbal and tonal
* On the second date I may say “I like you” or mention that I am seeking a long term partner if asked
* My body language tends to be more boyfriend
* I know I want to date someone by the second date. Most women take much longer. I’m uninhibited so my intentions usually show
* I overshare about myself (1st and 2nd dates)
* I prefer to send longer/higher effort texts than most guys
* sometimes I intentionally or unintentionally hide my attraction signals (verbal and body language). My last three relationships all started with that behavior.
* I mention qualities I prefer in a long term partner on the first or second date (so stupid in retrospect)
* I ask women what they want in a long term partner on the first or second date
* Meters-Briggs has a junk, so that’s fine. My past romantic partners have consistent big five profile either.
Sure there are sources of bias. I can’t control for them. But th
1. No generalizability needed. It just has to work for me and the women I normally date. Who cares if it would work for the “average guy”
2. I have no reason to assume a small effect size. My current positive rate on dates is 20%. Lots of room for improvement.
3. The subjectivity isn’t a problem because I’m the analyst and implementer. I don’t need well defined terms like communicating an academic study. I can reproduce the study from memory whenever I want.
Finally, there is no real cost to the study. Currently I’m ambivalent between treatment and control.
I saw the supply chain disruptions coming and made final preparations for it, I saw layoffs coming in my aviation-related job so I updated my resume, took a good severance package, and found a new, remote-based job with significantly higher pay. And yes, I also significantly re-balanced my portfolio and took advantage of the crash early this year. In all, I expect about 40% additional income/unrealized gains this year than last. To me that's more than minimal.
Rationalists that were paying attention get the 1st chance of understanding the ... (read more)