All of Weedlayer's Comments + Replies

Edit: I misunderstood what you said by "rationalize", sorry.

As Polymath said, rationalization means "To try to justify an irrational position later"", basically making excuses.

Anyway, I wouldn't worry about the downvotes, based on this post the people downvoting you probably weren't being passive aggressive, but rather misinterpreted what you posted. It can take a little while to learn the local beliefs and jargon.

I would consider 3 to be a few.

Do you feel confident that you could recognize a Bitcoin-like opportunity if one did appear, distinguishing it from countless other unlikely investments which go bust?

4Vaniver
When I have thought that there was a narrow time window during which long-run predictable effects were mispriced, I have been correct 3 out of 3 times (but didn't follow through at all once, or completely another time, for various logistical reasons). Obviously, I haven't successfully recognized every such opportunity, but it seems like I'm good enough at recognizing gold when I come across it that when I think I've found gold it makes sense to bet on that belief. I tell people to expect that sort of thing roughly once every five years; this is emphatically not a claim that I can look at the market and make a good pick every day. They're also not all at the scale of Bitcoin. The smallest of the three was when I correctly predicted the point of maximum pessimism during the Deepwater Horizon spill to within a week, which was worth about a 50% gain as the price returned to normalcy.

You should definitely post the entire quote here, not just the snippet with a link to the quote. For a moment I thought the one sentence was the entire quote, and nearly downvoted it for being trite.

While the quote is anti-rationality, it IS satirical, so I suppose it's fine.

I'm fairly confident it stands for "Society for Creative Anachronism".

Too strong.

Nobody EVER got successful from luck? Not even people born billionaires or royalty?

Nobody can EVER be happy without using intelligence? Only if you're using some definition of happiness that includes a term like "Philosophical fulfillment" or some such, which makes the issue tautological.

-23Robin
-5Vaniver

The quote always annoyed me too. People bring it up for ANY infringement on liberty, often leaving off the words "Essential" and "Temporary", making a much stronger version of the quote (And of course, obviously wrong).

Tangentially, Sword of Good was my introduction to Yudkowsky, and by extension, LW.

The tricky part is the "achievable levels of accuracy". It would be possible for, say Galileo to invent general relativity using the orbit of mercury, probably. But from a pebble, you would need VERY precise measurements, to an absurd level.

Honestly, I did read the source, and it's very difficult to get anything useful out of it. The closest I could interpret it is "Theory (In what? Political Science?) had become removed from "Other fields" (In political science? Science?)".

In general, if context is needed to interpret the quote (I.E. It doesn't stand on it's own), it's good to mention that context in the post, rather than just linking to a source and expecting people to follow a comment thread to understand it.

Sorry if this is overly critical, that was not my intention. I just don't get what the "internecine conflict" you are referring to is.

I'm not really getting anything from this other than "Mainstream philosophy, boo! Empiricism, yeah!"

Is there anything more to this post?

0[anonymous]
If you read the comment thread on the source, you see that it isn't actually philosophy boo, empiricism yeah, but rather an internecine conflict within academic political science.

EV (Shot) = -$90 EV (No Shot) = -$104

Difference (Getting the shot minus not getting it) = -$90 - (-$104) = $14

Therefore, get the shot.

The first two values are in the tree. The difference can be figured out by mental arithmetic.

Would that be altruistic value? If I'm not mistaken, the cost of blood donation is generally just time, and the benefit is to other people. I have heard infrequent blood donation might be a health benefit, but I don't know much about that.

4Metus
Sure, why not altruistic value? If you consider hospitalisation cost even for users with insurance you can consider altruistic value in blood donation too. Of course, any topic is fine. I didn't even know I wanted to know this before I read this post.

Well, if you don't value your health at all, then this seems valid.

0Nornagest
OP's analysis has a term for quality of life issues stemming from the illness; it just happens to be a fourth of the magnitude of lost productivity ($200 vs. $800). The latter ends up dominating the calculation. There's also a term for the costs of palliative care, estimated at $100, but that looks a little sketchy to me; a package of Theraflu and some tissues and cough drops would run maybe $20. On the other hand, Lumifer's health insurance would probably cover the flu shot. Mine would.

I have already gotten a flu shot this year, primarily because the cost of getting one is approximately 10 minutes and 0 USD (They're covered by cost of attendance at my university and in a very convenient location for me).

Also more than have died from UFAI. Clearly that's not worth worrying over either.

I'm not terrified of Ebola because it's been demonstrated to be controllable in fairly developed counties, but as a general rule this quote seems incredibly out of place on less wrong. People here discuss the dangers of things which have literally never happened before almost every day.

1gwern
And for all the scaremongering over so-called 'dinosaur killer' asteroids, total casualties are very low (even including Chelyabinsk)!
-6Strange7

My moral position different from (in fact, diametrically opposed to) Alice's, but I'm not going to say that Alice's morals are wrong

You do realize she's implicitly calling you complicit in the perpetuation of the suffering and deaths of millions of animals right? I'm having difficulty understanding how you can NOT say that her morality is wrong. Her ACTIONS are clearly unobjectionable (Eating plants is certainly not worse than eating meat under the vast majority of ethical systems) but her MORALITY is quite controversial. I have a feeling like you ac... (read more)

1Lumifer
I think the terms "acceptable" and "not acceptable" are much better here than right and wrong. If the positions were reversed, I might find Alice's morality unacceptable to me, but I still wouldn't call it wrong. No, I'm not talking about different values here. Having different conflicting values is entirely normal and commonplace. I am here implicitly accepting the multi-agent theory of mind and saying that a part of Bob's (let's call the guy Bob) personality would like to change his values. It might even be a dominant part of Bob's conscious personality, but it still is having difficulty controlling his drive to win. Or let's take a different example, with social pressure. Ali Ababwa emigrated from Backwardistan to the United States. His original morality was that women are... let's say inferior. However Ali went to school in the US, got educated and somewhat assimilated. He understands -- consciously -- that his attitude towards women is neither adequate nor appropriate and moreover, his job made it clear to him that he ain't in Backwardistan any more and noticeable sexism will get him fired. And yet his morals do not change just because he would prefer them to change. Maybe they will, eventually, but it will take time. Sure, but do you accept that other people have?

There's no law of physics that talks about morality, certainly. Morals are derived from the human brain though, which is remarkably similar between individuals. With the exception of extreme outliers, possibly involving brain damage, all people feel emotions like happiness, sadness, pain and anger. Shouldn't it be possible to judge most morality on the basis of these common features, making an argument like "wanton murder is bad, because it goes against the empathy your brain evolved to feel, and hurts the survival chance you are born valuing"... (read more)

0Decius
Yes, it should. However, in the hypothetical case involved, the reason is not true; the hypothetical brain does not have the quality "Has empathy and values survival and survival is impaired by murder". We are left with the simple truth that evolution (including memetic evolution) selects for things which produce offspring that imitate them, and "Has a moral system that prohibits murder" is a quality that successfully creates offspring that typically have the quality "Has a moral system that prohibits murder". The different quality "Commits wanton murder" is less successful at creating offspring in modern society, because convicted murderers don't get to teach children that committing wanton murder is something to do.
0A1987dM
I think those similarities are much less strong that EY appears to suggests; see e.g. “Typical Mind and Politics”.

This is a somewhat frustrating situation, where we both seem to agree on what morality is, but are talking over each other. I'll make two points and see if they move the conversation forward:

1: "There's no reason to consider your own value system to be the very best there is"

This seems to be similar to the point I made above about acknowledging on an intellectual level that my (factual) beliefs aren't the absolute best there is. The same logic holds true for morals. I know I'm making some mistakes, but I don't know where those mistakes are. ... (read more)

3Lumifer
That's already an excellent start :-) Ah. It seems we approach morals from a bit different angles. To you morals is somewhat like physics -- it's a system of "hard" facts and, generally speaking, they are either correct or not. As you say, "On any individual issue, I think I'm right, and therefore logically if someone disagrees with me, I think they're wrong." To me morals is more like preferences -- a system of flexible way to evaluate choices. You can have multiple ways to do that and they don't have to be either correct or not. Consider a simple example: eating meat. I am a carnivore and think that eating meat is absolutely fine from the morality point of view. Let's take Alice who is an ideological vegetarian. She feels that eating meat is morally wrong. My moral position different from (in fact, diametrically opposed to) Alice's, but I'm not going to say that Alice's morals are wrong. They are just different and she has full right to have her own. That does not apply to everything, of course. There are "zones" where I'm fine with opposite morals and there are "zones" where I am not. But even when I would not accept a sufficiently different morality I would hesitate to call it wrong. It seems an inappropriate word to use when there is no external, objective yardstick one could apply. It probably would be better to say that there is a range of values/morals that I consider acceptable and there is a range which I do not. No, I don't think so. Morals are values, not desires. It's not particularly common to wish to hold different values (I think), but I don't see why this is impossible. For example, consider somebody who values worldly success, winning, being at the top. But he has a side which isn't too happy with this constant drive, the trampling of everything in the rush to be the first, the sacrifices it requires. That side of his would prefer him to value success less. In general, people sometimes wish to radically change themselves (religious (de)conve
1hyporational
I think akrasia could also be an issue of being mistaken about your beliefs, all of which you're not conscious of at any given time.

What basis do you have for judging others morality other than your own morality? And if you ARE using your own morality to judge their morality, aren't you really just checking for similarity to your own?

I mean, it's the same way with beliefs. I understand not everything I believe is true, and I thus understand intellectually that someone else might be more correct (or, less wrong, if you will) than me. But in practice, when I'm evaluating others' beliefs I basically compare them with how similar they are to my own. On a particularly contentious issue,... (read more)

3Lumifer
No, I don't think so. Morals are a part of the value system (mostly the socially-relevant part) and as such you can think of morals as a set of values. The important thing here is that there are many values involved, they have different importance or weight, and some of them contradict other ones. Humans, generally speaking, do not have coherent value systems. When you need to make a decision, your mind evaluates (mostly below the level of your consciousness) a weighted balance of the various values affected by this decision. One side wins and you make a particular choice, but if the balance was nearly even you feel uncomfortable or maybe even guilty about that choice; if the balance was very lopsided, the decision feels like a no-brainer to you. Given the diversity and incoherence of personal values, comparison of morals is often an iffy thing. However there's no reason to consider your own value system to be the very best there is, especially given that it's your conscious mind that makes such comparisons, but part of morality is submerged and usually unseen by the consciousness. Looking at an exact copy of your own morals you will evaluate them as just fine, but not necessarily perfect. Also don't forget that your ability to manipulate your own morals is limited. Who you are is not necessarily who you wish you were.

Ah, I understand. Thanks for clearing up my confusion.

Ah, that's probably not what the parent meant then. What he was referring to was analogous to sharing your burden with the church community (or, in context, the effective altruism community).

0Lumifer
Yes, of course. I pointed out another way through which you don't have to bear it alone.

So if my morality tells me that murdering innocent people is good, then that's not worse than whatever your moral system is?

I know it's possible to believe that (it was pretty much used as an example in my epistemology textbook for arguments against moral relativism), I just never figured anyone actually believed it.

2hyporational
It's not clear to me that comparing moral systems on a scale of good and bad makes sense without a metric outside the systems. So while I wouldn't murder innocent people myself, comparing our moral systems on a scale of good and bad is uselessly meta, since that meta-reality doesn't seem to have any metric I can use. Any statements of good or bad are inside the moral systems that I would be trying to compare. Making a comparison inside my own moral system doesn't seem to provide any new information.
4Lumifer
You are confused between two very different statements: (1) I don't think that my morals are (always, necessarily) better than other people's. (2) I have no basis whatsoever for judging morality and/or behavior of other people.

It's also worth mentioning that cleaning birds after an oil spill isn't always even helpful. Some birds, like gulls and penguins, do pretty well. Others, like loons, tend to do poorly. Here are some articles concerning cleaning oiled birds.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127749940

http://news.discovery.com/animals/experts-kill-dont-clean-oiled-birds.htm

And I know that the oiled birds issue was only an example, but I just wanted to point out that this issue, much like the "Food and clothing aid to Africa" examples you often... (read more)

Obviously your mileage may vary, but I find it helps to imagine a stranger as someone else's family/friend. If I think of how much I care about people close to me, and imagine that that stranger has people who care about them as much as I can about my brother, then I find it easier to do things to help that person.

I guess you could say I don't really care about them, but care about the feelings of caring other people have towards them.

If that doesn't work, this is how I originally though of it. If a stranger passed by me on the street and collapsed, I wo... (read more)

4[anonymous]
Thank you. That seems like a good way of putting it. I seem to have problems thinking of all 7 billion people as individuals. I will try to think about people I see outside as having a life of their own even if I don't know about it. Maybe that helps.

I'm actually having difficultly understanding the sentiment "I get annoyed at those who think their morals are better than mine". I mean, I can understand not wanting other people to look down on you as a basic emotional reaction, but doesn't everyone think their morals are better than other people?

That's the difference between morals and tastes. If I like chocolate ice cream and you like vanilla, then oh well. I don't really care and certainly don't think my tastes are better for anyone other than me. But if I think people should value the w... (read more)

3Lumifer
I don't.

I'm not sure what point is being made here. Distributing burdens is a part of any group, why is religion exceptional here?

2Lumifer
Theory of mind, heh... :-) The point is that if you actually believe in, say, Christianity (that is, you truly internally believe and not just go to church on Sundays so that neighbors don't look at you strangely), it's not your church community which shares your burden. It's Jesus who lifts this burden off your shoulders.

I have say I didn't find this post particularly useful.

On my first reading, I was having some difficultly understanding what point you were making. You seem to use some words or phrases in highly non-standard ways, I still have no idea what some sentences like "Its fairly easy to make sense on a mid-level" mean. I get the general impression of a post by someone whose first language isn't English, or who didn't proofread their own work, and that makes reading it a chore, not predisposing me to like it. Cleaning the post up and using more simpl... (read more)

0ShannonFriedman
I added the summary, does this clarify for you sufficiently?
2ShannonFriedman
Thank you for explaining. I've explained a bit in some of the other comments. It is true that the things I am attempting to communicate are very foreign to this crowd, and I haven't spoken to rationalists at large in quite awhile, especially on a heated topic like this one and am out of practice. I'm going to do my best to do a more thorough summary in the morning after sleeping on it. Although I am a native Californian and English speaker, I am culturally very different than Less Wrong at this point, and thus forgot quite how thorough I need to be in clear speech for Less Wrongers to get what I'm trying to say. When you speak to people who are more or less on the same page with you, its very different than speaking with a different group with a different belief set. You need to take the messages down to a much more basic level to define terms and whatnot. I had actually thought I had done that, but still clearly missed many steps. I'm also very positive reinforcement and appreciation oriented, so its pretty jarring to run into so much hating and so little appreciation. Not that I can't handle it, but its certainly a lot less pleasant to have all of the imperfections picked apart than to have the effort and signal appreciated. There are a lot of different ways to say the same things and reach the same (or better) results. But that is a different post, which I will probably write elsewhere. A lot of what I teach people how to do is be nicer to themselves, and thus, as they learn this and their lives get better, they are also very nice to me and change their basic assumptions to friendlier kinder ones that are pleasant to work with.

This quote reminded me of a quote from an anime called Kaiji, albeit your quote is much more succinct.

Normally, those people would never wake up from their fantasy worlds. They live meaningless lives. They waste their precious days over nothing. No matter how old they get, they'll continue to say, "My real life hasn't started yet. The real me is still asleep, so that's why my life is such garbage." They continue to tell themselves that. They continue. And they age. Then die. And on their deathbeds, they will finally realize: the life they lived

... (read more)
4A1987dM
More succinctly... -- John Lennon, “Beautiful Boy (Darling Boy)”