All of whyzenna's Comments + Replies

My forecast is based on: * The past trend of increasing qubits in quantum devices * The current leading commercially available device having 20 qubits * Google's plans to make Sycamore, which has 54 qubits, available I don't have a background in quantum computing, so there's a chance I'm misinterpreting the question in some way, but I learned a lot doing the research for the forecast (like that there's a lot of controversy regarding whether quantum supremacy has been achieved yet). Amusingly, during my research I stumbled upon this Metaculus question about when a >49 qubit quantum computer would be created which resolved ambiguously due to the issue of how well-controlled the qubits are. For the purposes of this forecast I assumed it would resolve based on the raw number of qubits, without adjusting for control.