All prediction market platforms trade continuously, which is the same mechanism the stock market uses. Buy and sell limit orders can be posted at any time, and as soon as they match against each other a trade will be executed. This is called a Central limit order book (CLOB). Example...
I've been thinking about ways to optimise the EA Forum to increase the likelihood that ideas go from peoples' heads to being published in some form (relevant). My general idea is like this: 1. Make it an easy default action to start writing out an idea and save it as...
About a year ago I decided to try using one of those apps where you tie your goals to some kind of financial penalty. The specific one I tried is Forfeit, which I liked the look of because it’s relatively simple, you set single tasks which you have to verify...
right now I might buy, then explain, in the hope that other people will believe me, also buy, and I can sell high
I think this would still work, as long you don't explain before your buy order goes through 🙃
if trades are public like manifold right now, this might result in trading strategies like "mimic the most successful traders" becoming plausible
I think this is right, because you could copy a successful trader in the same transaction they are buying in, so they would lose their first mover advantage (previously people could copy, but only after they picked up shares at the best price). This would be a good reason to not have... (read more)
Some counters on why you might want HFT: https://blog.headlandstech.com
Thanks! In reading about this, I saw that that batch auctions had been proposed and tried in various financial markets, but they hadn't caught on, so it's interesting to see some of the pushback.
I'm not super convinced by the arguments in that post. I think a lot of them are begging the question wrt whether to prefer continuous or batched trading. I.e. given that trading is continuous, HFT does provide a lot of utility in various ways, e.g. reducing spreads between distant markets. But the reason those spreads exist is because continuous trading creates the possibility for something to happen in New York while... (read more)
Some of the points apply more obviously to high volume markets, but I actually think this would be a bigger improvement on thinly traded markets. Mainly because of the aggregation of liquidity and "better ergonomics". With 3-5 people, the issue of whether any of the participants are even checking the market at any given time is more of a problem, so there is a bigger benefit to having an agreed-upon time at which to expect everyone to have their orders ready.
Expiration dates on limit orders achieve something in this direction, but it's not quite the same thing that batched trading would achieve.
Consider the case where you place an order based on your current forecast, and then some event happens while you're not watching the market:
All prediction market platforms trade continuously, which is the same mechanism the stock market uses. Buy and sell limit orders can be posted at any time, and as soon as they match against each other a trade will be executed. This is called a Central limit order book (CLOB).
Most of the time, the market price lazily wanders around due to random variation in when people show up, and a bulk of optimistic orders build up away from the action. Occasionally, a new piece of information arrives to the market, and it jumps to a new price, consuming some of the optimistic orders in the process.
The... (read 1338 more words →)
Yeah I have also had to stop using it recently for this reason (at great cost to my productivity :( ), mainly because the non-AI part of the app became insanely slow. I've yet to find a good alternative (that has one-off tasks + robust verification + usable mobile interface), please let me know if you do find one, I'm currently leaning towards building a very basic one myself
I've been thinking about ways to optimise the EA Forum to increase the likelihood that ideas go from peoples' heads to being published in some form (relevant). My general idea is like this:
On (2), I think it would be good if we could recommend a system to people to get drafts over the line, but I have never successfully followed any such system myself.
Does anyone have a process you follow that reliably results in publishing things from your draft pile?
Example systems for illustration:
Example 1
Possibly of interest: the fastest rocket sled track uses a similar idea, they put a helium filled tube over the final section of the track:
... (read more)Just as meteors are burned up by friction in the upper atmosphere, air friction can cause a high-speed sled to burn up, even if made of the toughest steel alloys. An engineering sleight-of-hand is used to increase those "burn-up" limits by reducing the density of the atmosphere around the track. To do this, one needs a safe, non-toxic, low-density gas such as helium. Helium is only one seventh the density of air, significantly reducing friction between the high speed sled and the atmosphere. Enter the "helium bag" concept.
No
That was when I took a week off work to do side projects, glad it at least shows up in this graph 😌
Thanks for the tip... deep down a part of me knows there are ways to get around Freedom, but they're non-obvious enough that I haven't cheated yet
Glad to be of help! I was almost put off by the overly rave reviews when I first tried it lol but now I can imagine myself writing one.
I haven't tried Focusmate, although I do do timed work sessions (and did before I used the app) and now use the app to enforce a certain amount of time per day, so this achieves a similar effect.
I registered on forfeit and see that it has pomodoro forfeits in the app, so using it for focusmate may be redundant.
It might be redundant, although one thing that is really great about it is that because screenshots are the universal interface you can keep using the... (read more)
About a year ago I decided to try using one of those apps where you tie your goals to some kind of financial penalty. The specific one I tried is Forfeit, which I liked the look of because it’s relatively simple, you set single tasks which you have to verify you have completed with a photo.
I’m generally pretty sceptical of productivity systems, tools for thought, mindset shifts, life hacks and so on. But this one I have found to be really shockingly effective, it has been about the biggest positive change to my life that I can remember. I feel like the category of things which benefit from careful planning and execution over time has completely... (read 5250 more words →)
Could you share what the questions were in the application form? I'm thinking of applying next year but I see there's no longer a way to get to the application form from the site.