I'm not assuming that the relevant predictors in my scenarios are infallible. In the Blackmail scenario, for example, I'm assuming that the blackmailer is fairly good but not perfect at predicting your reaction. So it's perfectly possible for an FDT agent to find themselves in that scenario. If they do, they will clearly do worse than a CDT agent.
You're right that I shouldn't have called FDT's recommendation in the Twin case "insane". I do think FDT's recommendation is insane for the other cases I discuss, but the Twin case is tricky. It's a Newcomb Problem. I'd still say that FDT gives the wrong advise here, and
Thanks. A few points, mostly for clarification.
- I'm not assuming that the relevant predictors in my scenarios are infallible. In the Blackmail scenario, for example, I'm assuming that the blackmailer is fairly good but not perfect at predicting your reaction. So it's perfectly possible for an FDT agent to find themselves in that scenario. If they do, they will clearly do worse than a CDT agent.
- You're right that I shouldn't have called FDT's recommendation in the Twin case "insane". I do think FDT's recommendation is insane for the other cases I discuss, but the Twin case is tricky. It's a Newcomb Problem. I'd still say that FDT gives the wrong advise here, and
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