All of Zian's Comments + Replies

The various extraordinary renditions during the "War on Terror" seem to be an existence proof that the USA is able to act as it pleases in other countries, especially when it is focused on a small number of persons.

I agree that the country is not 100% successful but that does not prevent the nation from trying to act.

Of course you should cut corners when you need to get somewhere fast. Ambulances go through red lights!

That is a deeply unfortunate line to see.

Humanity has known for decades that "[most medical calls] don’t dramatically worsen in the course of a very few minutes, and they don’t spread from person to person" (Journal of Emergency Medical Services, 2017).

In the case of red lights and sirens, maybe they made sense before bystander CPR and before we had empirical data. But not now.

The overuse of red lights and sirens doesn't save lives. It ends them.

I wouldn't call them "common-sense". When a modern-day tragedy (death of a child) is required before "hug a tree and survive" becomes a slogan, it seems safe to say that they are counter-intuitive.

If humans did the right thing by default (e.g. "If you are lost, 'Hug-A-Tree' and stay put."), there would be fewer sad stories.

Here's another tiny Windows Firefox bug report.

1. Expand any song.
2. Hit play.
3. Collapse the song.

The song keeps playing. Would've expected the music to stop when the video player wasn't visible.

As anecdotal support for "constantly tasting everything", I offer my high school scientific calculator. After one year of 2 hrs per day of chemistry class, its crevices around the display had a permanent collection of precipitate.

I suspect that even without intentionally tasting things, nearly everything in a lab is ingested as an aerosol. It would be unsurprising if months of such exposure led someone to develop a hunch about a molecule.

If you're looking for an experimental protocol, the ADHD MTA trial's protocol looks pretty good.

It is described at https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10591283/ and explains in detail how the doctors decided when to try increasing the dosage. It supports evand's assertion that improvement should be noticeable quickly.

How much ambient light is there? Is it all from sunlight?

You may also be interested in the Transit Cost database, which compares the cost of constructing things by country.

If you're feeling down, here's a recent project that seems to have worked out.

San Diego Mid-Coast Trolley Extension:

• Committed to building it: 2010 ("The project was adopted into the ...plan in October 2010." Federal Transportation Authority.) -- Not sure how to account for the prior work.
• Normal riders riding it: November 2021 (Wikipedia cites a local media outlet.)
• Predicted Cost: $2.1 billion (per the aforementioned Federal Transportation Auth

I got a little weirded out at the OAuth prompt because it said "johnny" wanted to get my account. I know who Neuronpedia is. I didn't know who "johnny" was until I did some more reading and figured out that you're Johnny.

Please consider registering a dedicated account for the organization ("Neuropedia", perhaps) and doing the OAuth through the organization's account so that the prompt doesn't surprise users as much.

In a later comment, the original poster said that the Total Protein seemed fine. Unfortunately, https://www.ajkd.org/article/S0272-6386(99)70278-7/fulltext suggests that the person looking at the labs would have to know that they ought to look closely at the albumin level, specifically. It wouldn't be the first time that "Reality has a surprising amount of detail" where overlooking 1 thing is enough to get into trouble.

It would be unsurprising if the albumin level turned out to be low, if the A/G ratio was slightly off despite the normal-looking total prot... (read more)

It is also possible that his lab values fell just barely within the normal ranges.

What are you comparing?

FYI, the Waveform article promotes the use of the Kruithof curve but that relationship between lumens and preference could not be replicated by a study from 1990 (https://doi.org/10.1177%2F096032719002200102).

Chapter 5 of a 2005 thesis ("Human lighting demands : healthy lighting in an office environment") from TU/e has specific recommendations for brightness, contrast, etc. Its DOI is 10.6100/IR594257 (https://doi.org/10.6100/IR594257).

Full citation: Aries, M. B. C. (2005). Human lighting demands : healthy lighting in an office environment. [Phd Thesis 1 (... (read more)

The content may be public but does copyright law allow these sorts of quotes?

Which venue controls Facebook posts' copyright? I assume that Lesswrong.com's liability is also affected by the law that applies to the location of Lightcone's office.

I do not know the answer but desired to mention them in case they are relevant.

Do you mean that the container with the contaminated fuel was stored outdoors in the container that you linked to?

If yes, then a couple things come to mind:

1. Did you confirm that the container was watertight?
2. Is it possible that the relatively small size of water molecules meant that they could sneak past mechanisms designed to hold back large hydrocarbons?

Thanks for the clarification.

Are you limiting the phrase "Social Security" to the funds given to the elderly or are you including things like disability payments?

It seems that having a teacher tell you when to move up/onwards is critical. Otherwise, it can be tricky to realize that the hardware is the limitation after months of working on your own abilities/skills.

Regarding the shopping example, I find that B2B websites like Fisher Scientific and McMaster-Carr have good search and filter options. Pcpartpicker.com is also a good example.

Calling 911 or your local emergency number is also a good default action because the call taker should be trained to walk you through some of the things the post described.

Don't be afraid of creating duplicate 911 calls for something like a big fire or car crash. Merging duplicates and rapidly closing out unnecessary calls is the communications center's job, not yours.

Expect to be asked for a description of the problem and your location. Don't worry if you don't know an exact address. You may also be asked for your phone number.

It is also OK to indicate that you are uncertain about something such as whether or not the patient is breathing.

I recognize many of the institutions you mentioned such as Nvidia and MIT. How confident are you that the more obscure ones like Hugging Face are trustworthy?

The title says "Reflecting on the 2022 Guild of the Rose Workshops" but the article does not discuss the results of the workshops or the experiences related to operating them. Instead, the article lists the contents of each past workshop.

Is it possible to update the title to better reflect the article's contents?

How do you think the employees in charge of the signs will benefit if they start omitting the phrase?

Please don't forget to deal with boring risks while working on existential risks.

Drive carefully and purchase vehicles with acceptable levels of risk.

Even an IIHS "TOP SAFETY PICK+" vehicle may be unacceptable if you are unwilling to let your head "[strike] the window sill of the driver door hard" when another vehicle strikes you from the side. That vehicle's head injury score was 391 and a score of 250 roughly equates to a concussion. There are other vehicles that allow the passenger's head and the driver's head to make "no contact" with hard surfaces in ... (read more)

An article about an airplane crash reported an example of over-fitting caused by training in the airline industry. 

Pilots were trained in roughly the following order:

1. How to recover from a stall in a small airplane by pushing down on the yoke.
2. Later, they were trained in simulators for bigger planes and "the practical test standards ... called for the loss of altitude in a stall recovery to be less than 100 feet. ... More than a hundred feet loss of altitude and you fail."

And then an airplane crashed when the pilot flying pushed the wrong way on the yok... (read more)

It seems that the broken hand example is similar to situations where we have a deep understanding of the mechanics of how something works. In those situations, it makes more sense to say "this leg is broken; it cannot do 99% of the normal activities of daily living." And the doctor can probably fix the leg with pins and a cast without much debate over exactly how disabled the patient is.

A large fraction of the ITAR list.

Some examples of dual-use items:

• Rockets
• Iron powder
• Ship hulls
• Airplanes
• Helmets
• Cordless telephones (digital spread spectrum)

Out of that list of examples, airplanes and ship hulls probably fit your requirements.

How about this instead?

//start quote

The statue made a rising whine as the lights began to pulse rhythmically. The legs stretched out, probing a bit in random directions for an instant before one found the surface of the floor and the rest immediately followed, each with its own sharp little click. When the machine appeared sure of its footing, it began to slowly push itself up while the weapon on its back glowed a dull red and swiveled around sharply. It was so beautiful! And a bit terrifying. I took a step back, and the statue seemed to notice! I can't sa... (read more)

How confident are you that it is possible to differentiate something significant (vomiting) from something that should be delayed? Is it hard to differentiate between different types of cries?

Which spreadsheet did you look at in the HUD data? Did you use the contract price?

Many widely-known organizations in this field have publicly-identifiable persons and assets that can be pursued if they fail to follow through on their promises. For example, in the United States of America, the Internal Revenue Service requires some organizations to complete Form 990, which can be viewed by everyone.

Are there plans to provide a similar level of assurance to people who are interested in this cause?

Also, for people in the United States, consider running the hot water from a nearby faucet until the hot water is hot. Then, turn off the faucet and turn on the dishwasher.

As always, check your dishwasher's manual for specific recommendations.

"Learning to research out of desperate need is like learning to drive on the way to the hospital."

Fully agreed as to the greater point but the flip side is that in real life, if the need is desperate, then entire chunks of this article can be skipped.

For example, if aliens will murder you if you don't tell them the correct name of the " Tiffany" in the CGP Grey poem, then you can blurt out "Theofania" and collapse into a heap in bed. No need to write anything

Similarly, if you are bleeding profusely from a stab wound, then it is probably sufficient to find ... (read more)

Would the costs of figuring that out and implementing it exceed the expected benefits? Assuming that everyone in the household is already boosted with the monovalent version, it seems unlike for the costs to be worthwhile.

For completeness, Guesstimate's URL is https://www.getguesstimate.com/.

To the degree that people do things only to signal, I don't expect your idea to take off.

The note about being under specified sounds like the article "They Write the Right Stuff". In the article, the writer describes the exacting process used to make software for the Space Shuttle. It involves considerable effort up front in defining the specifications and a large testing effort. And, there are also cultural factors and implied table stakes like everyone having a security clearance.

Yes they do.

A 2010 journal article found that if you ask 3 different people to measure the probed pocket depth, they will agree exactly about 55% of the time and they'll be within 1mm of each other 97% of the time.

There are also other symptoms to look for besides depth before a diagnosis should be given (e.g. bleeding and bone loss).

The American Academy of Periodontology published 2 tables that walk the user through staging and grading periodontitis. The tables include the following factors:

• Amount of bone loss visible when looking at the tooth directly
• Amount of bone l

I have a real world example.

Last week, I noticed a 3M Command Wire Hook kept falling down. Trivial fixes like cleaning the wall as described in the instructions did not work.

I tried to search for information about calculating the total load that is placed on the hook by 5 cables with different lengths and diameter along with various points of support.

After about fifteen to thirty minutes of trying to figure out statics (with no formal training besides the standard introductory college physics classes), I gave up. Then, I searched for information about the ... (read more)

I wouldn't fret too much about bias here. It's hard to incorrectly read "0". :)

Thanks for linking to a source.

I've also seen stores use Kimwipes to clean lenses.

What is the name of the coating?

Usually, you can look up somewhat detailed information about a lens coating using the Internet. Then, at the store, you can select the one you want.

For example, Sola had a patent on coatings that got transferred to Zeiss and Zeiss has a PDF that lists all the options and which coatings can go with which lenses.

Thanks for quoting the bit about Elua at the end. It is helpful to remember that despite Moloch, et al, humanity has managed some pretty impressive feats, even in the present day.

It's easy to think that the counterexample of science in earlier posts is something accomplished "Once upon a time in a land far away."

As a concrete example, I'm quite glad that the highly effective mRNA vaccines (Moderna/Pfizer) exist for the common man. They exist despite things like the FDA, the world of academic publishing, the need to find funding to survive, and so on.

Seconding UpToDate as a starting point and treating it like Wikipedia by using it as a source of references.

Then, you can use those references as a starting point in PubMed.

This suggestion is based mostly on watching my primary care physicians look things up at a major academic (university) medical center and conversations with physicians after using UpToDate + PubMed on my own.

>access if they wanted one

Based on a nearly universal sense (reading/personal experience/conversations with doctors) that it's hard to find an in-network psychiatrist/psychologist who's will to see a new patient, my prior on this is very low.

>motivation

That would help too. But there's probably a large set of people who could be helped if the "access" barrier was reduced/removed on its own.

>difficulty?

Agreed for both rationalists and non-rationalists.

>knowing how to fix brains?

Which condition(s) specifically come to mind when you think of something that "clinical psychology research already has...covered"? I was unable to think of one off the top of my head.