But then, Wei Dai's posting was intemperate, as is your comment. I mention this not to excuse mine, just to point out how easily this happens.
Using the word "intemperate" in this way is a remarkable dodge. Wei Dai's comment was entirely within the scope of the (admittedly extreme) hypothetical under discussion. Your comment contained a paragraph composed solely of vile personal insult and slanted misrepresentation of Wei Dai's statements. The tone of my response was deliberate and quite restrained relative to how I felt.
This may be partly the dynamics of the online medium, but in the present case I think it is also because we are dealing in fantasy here, and fantasy always has to be more extreme than reality, to make up for its own unreality.
Huh? You're "not excusing" the extremity of your interpersonal behavior on the grounds that the topic was fictional, and fiction is more extreme than reality? And then go on to explain that you don't behave similarly toward Eliezer with respect to his position on TORTURE vs SPECKS because that topic is even more fictional?
Is this rationality, or the politics of two-year-olds with nukes?
Is this a constructive point, or just more gesturing?
As for the rest of your comment: Thank you! This is the discussion I wanted to be reading all along. Aside from a general feeling that you're still not really trying to be fair, my remaining points are mercifully non-meta. To dampen political distractions, I'll refer to the nuke-holding country as H, and a nuke-developing country as D.
You're very focused on Wei Dai's statement about backward induction, but I think you're missing a key point: His strategy does not depend on D reasoning the way he expects them to, it's just heavily optimized for this outcome. I believe he's right to say that backward induction should convince D to comply, in the sense that it is in their own best interest to do so.
Or perhaps they can be superrational and precommit to developing their programme regardless of what threats you make? Then rationally, you must see that it would therefore be futile to make such threats.
Don't see how this follows. If both countries precommit, D gets bombed until it halts or otherwise cannot continue development. While this is not H's preferred outcome, H's entire strategy is predicated on weighing irreversible nuclear proliferation and its consequences more heavily than the millions of lives lost in the event of a suicidal failure to comply. In other words, D doesn't wield sufficient power in this scenario to affect H's decision, while H holds sufficient power to skew local incentives toward mutually beneficial outcomes.
Speaking of nuclear proliferation and its consequences, you've been pretty silent on this topic considering that preventing proliferation is the entire motivation for Wei Dai's strategy. Talking about "murdering millions" without at least framing it alongside the horror of proliferation is not productive.
How are you going to launch those nukes, anyway?
Practical considerations like this strike me as by far the best arguments against extreme, theory-heavy strategies. Messy real-world noise can easily make a high-stakes gambit more trouble than it's worth.
Is this rationality, or the politics of two-year-olds with nukes?
Is this a constructive point, or just more gesturing?
It is a gesture concluding a constructive point.
You're very focused on Wei Dai's statement about backward induction, but I think you're missing a key point: His strategy does not depend on D reasoning the way he expects them to, it's just heavily optimized for this outcome. I believe he's right to say that backward induction should convince D to comply, in the sense that it is in their own best interest to do so.
This is a distinct...
It's an old book, I know, and one that many of us have already read. But if you haven't, you should.
If there's anything in the world that deserves to be called a martial art of rationality, this book is the closest approximation yet. Forget rationalist Judo: this is rationalist eye-gouging, rationalist gang warfare, rationalist nuclear deterrence. Techniques that let you win, but you don't want to look in the mirror afterward.
Imagine you and I have been separately parachuted into an unknown mountainous area. We both have maps and radios, and we know our own positions, but don't know each other's positions. The task is to rendezvous. Normally we'd coordinate by radio and pick a suitable meeting point, but this time you got lucky. So lucky in fact that I want to strangle you: upon landing you discovered that your radio is broken. It can transmit but not receive.
Two days of rock-climbing and stream-crossing later, tired and dirty, I arrive at the hill where you've been sitting all this time smugly enjoying your lack of information.
And after we split the prize and cash our checks I learn that you broke the radio on purpose.
Schelling's book walks you through numerous conflict situations where an unintuitive and often self-limiting move helps you win, slowly building up to the topic of nuclear deterrence between the US and the Soviets. And it's not idle speculation either: the author worked at the White House at the dawn of the Cold War and his theories eventually found wide military application in deterrence and arms control. Here's a selection of quotes to give you a flavor: the whole book is like this, except interspersed with game theory math.
I sometimes think of game theory as being roughly divided in three parts, like Gaul. There's competitive zero-sum game theory, there's cooperative game theory, and there are games where players compete but also have some shared interest. Except this third part isn't a middle ground. It's actually better thought of as ultra-competitive game theory. Zero-sum settings are relatively harmless: you minimax and that's it. It's the variable-sum games that make you nuke your neighbour.
Sometime ago in my wild and reckless youth that hopefully isn't over yet, a certain ex-girlfriend took to harassing me with suicide threats. (So making her stay alive was presumably our common interest in this variable-sum game.) As soon as I got around to looking at the situation through Schelling goggles, it became clear that ignoring the threats just leads to escalation. The correct solution was making myself unavailable for threats. Blacklist the phone number, block the email, spend a lot of time out of home. If any messages get through, pretend I didn't receive them anyway. It worked. It felt kinda bad, but it worked.