SilasBarta comments on The Absent-Minded Driver - Less Wrong
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I didn't change the problem; I pointed out that he hadn't been appropriately representing the existing problem when trying to generalize it to partial information. Having previously agreed with his (incorrect) assumptions in no way obligates me to persist in my error, especially when the exchange makes it clear!
Which original problem? (If the ABM problem as stated, then my solution is gives the same p=2/3 result. If it's the partial knowledge variant, Wei_Dei doesn't have an unambiguously correct solution when he fails to include the possibility of picking Y at X and X at Y like he did for the reverse.) Further, I do have the mixed strategy dominating -- but only up to r = 61%. Feel free to find an optimum where one of p and q is not 1 or 0 while r is greater than 61%.
That wasn't the reason for our different solutions.
Well, I hope you're no longer tired, and you can check my approach one more time.