Tyrrell_McAllister comments on The Absent-Minded Driver - Less Wrong
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You shouldn't be surprised that a chess world champion has made a mistake over the course of their entire career. However, given a specific turn, you should be surprised if the world champion made a mistake in that turn. That is, given any turn, you can rely on their making a good move on that turn. You can't rely with perfect confidence, of course, but that wasn't the claim.