TobyBartels comments on The Absent-Minded Driver - Less Wrong

27 Post author: Wei_Dai 16 September 2009 12:51AM

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Comment author: TobyBartels 23 August 2010 04:54:46PM *  3 points [-]

  1. The probability of missing both turns for a p is 2*p […] Which is just 2*p or p^2

  2. The probability of making the first turn is just p […] So the expected utility is p*0 or just 0.

In (1), instead of 2*p, you want p*p. In (2), you want 1 – p instead of p. The final results are correct, however.

Comment author: gwern 24 August 2010 04:19:55AM *  1 point [-]
  1. I feel kind of silly now; what was I thinking in writing '2*p or just 2*p'?
  2. Right, right. I had difficulty remembering whether p was the chance of making a turn or missing a turn. Good thing the multiplication by 0 makes the difference moot.
Comment author: TobyBartels 24 August 2010 02:51:53PM 0 points [-]

Ah well, it happens.

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