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LauraABJ comments on Action vs. inaction - Less Wrong
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Comments (43)
The cost of a mammogram is about $100 and the cost of a breast biopsy is about $1000. Thus 2000 women X 10 years X $100/mammorgram + 8%X2000 women X $1000/biopsy = $2,160,000 per life saved.
This might be the calculation they actually looked at.
Good point - but they didn't give that as their justification. Also, you can get a better cost (in dollars and other measures) per life saved by giving women mammograms once every 2 years; and probably better still by giving them every 3 years.
Of course they wouldn't give that as a justification. Look at the reaction of the BC community over the change in recommendation with the justification of unnecessary anxiety/morbidity-- do you imagine there'd be less outrage if the reported reason for changing the guideline was money? They were retarded enough to bring this up during the health-care debate as it is...
To make the cost argument, you'd need to also present the cost differences caused by earlier detection of a small number of cancers. The cost of treating a single case might be greater than the cost of testing a thousand cases.
I suspect that the only way skipping early detection can be a win, cost-wise, is if it enables more people to die before they receive costly treatment.
Early detection can also lead to overdiagnosis. The report discusses that as a factor in their decision.
and if a million dollars is the bright line, this explains why the 3x better age range of 50-60 got a pass.
Really? The cost you are quoting for the procedures sounds low for the U.S., but I'm no expert. (comment reworded for clarity)
Note: the following is a response to a misunderstanding of MichaelBishop's comment in its original form, and refers to the price US society is willing to pay to save a human life.
Not really - I've heard US$1e6 cited before as a cutoff.
I didn't mean the value of life was low as a cutoff for making a decision. I meant the cost of the procedures sounded lower than I would have expected them to be. I will clarify the original comment.
Noted (literally)!