Vladimir_Nesov comments on lessmeta - Less Wrong

6 Post author: PlaidX 22 December 2009 05:57PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 23 December 2009 03:45:16AM 5 points [-]

It's more intuitive to use odds. Prior odds are 1:99, likelihood ratio (strength of evidence) given by a positive test is 95:5, so posterior odds are (1:99)*(95:5)=19:99, or probability of 19/118 (about 16%).