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MrHen comments on Open Thread: February 2010 - Less Wrong
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What is the correct term for the following distinction:
Scenario A: The fair coin has 50% chance to land heads.
Scenario B: The unfair coin has an unknown chance to land heads, so I assign it a 50% chance to get heads until I get more information.
If A flips up heads it won't change the 50%. If B flips up heads it will change the 50%. This makes Scenario A more [something] than Scenario B, but I don't know the right term.
Static? Unchanging? Complete (as far as definitions of the situation go)? Simple (as far as equations go - it lacks the dynamic variable representing the need to update)?
Thank you for responding! I was wondering if anyone ever would.
The best I could come up with was "Fixed" or "Confident." Your choices seem on par with those. Perhaps there is no technical term for this? I find that hard to believe.
Changing the original question slightly seems to be looking for a different but similar term:
Unfair coin A has been flipped 10^6 times and appears to be diverging on 60% in favor of HEADS
Unfair coin B has been flipped 10^1 times and appears to be diverging on 60% in favor of HEADS
If I flip coin A and it results in HEADS the estimation of 60% will move less than it would if I was flipping coin B. This makes coin A more [something] than coin B, but I don't know the right term.
More defined. You've reduced your uncertainty about its properties (unfairness) using more evidence.
I'm sorry, I avoid technical terms when thinking about such things.
Ah! That works wonderfully!
I'm pretty sure it makes your beliefs about coin A more [something] than coin B.
Okay, sure, I can deal with that. But I still need something to put in for [something]. :)
Left as an exercise for the reader.
Hey! That doesn't help...
Though, honestly, I am just looking for a word; a term that describes the behavior. I don't need the behavior explained.
It makes your beliefs about coin A more concentrated than your beliefs about coin B.
Yes! That feels like the term I was looking for, thanks.