CronoDAS comments on Shut Up and Divide? - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Wei_Dai 09 February 2010 08:09PM

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Comment author: CronoDAS 09 February 2010 10:25:52PM *  4 points [-]

I don't know how much money it takes nowadays to save a life; the value keeps changing, and different studies biased in different ways conclude different things.

According to GiveWell it costs something on the order of $1,000 to save a life.

Comment author: GuySrinivasan 09 February 2010 10:54:59PM 1 point [-]

Also according to Bill Gates. But that calculation is wrong in an important way. In fact (AFAICT) it currently costs something on the order of $1000 x N to save some large number of lives N via any single method whose efficacy has low variance in the number of lives saved.

If you're willing to use a lot of different methods and only fund them up to some relatively low limit, you can save a lot more expected lives per dollar - but the cheap methods aren't always scalable due to (e.g.) not enough people with an easily cured fatal disease, and if you're spending enough money the costs of finding all of the cheap unscalable methods may be fairly high.

If you're willing to accept a high variance, like p=0.9 of saving no one and p=0.1 of saving tons of people, you can save a lot more expected lives per dollar - but you're a lot more susceptible to error here, since these methods often don't have nearly as many data points that show p is really 0.1 and not 0.001.