wedrifid comments on Undiscriminating Skepticism - Less Wrong

97 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 March 2010 11:23PM

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Comment author: wedrifid 23 January 2012 04:05:37AM *  1 point [-]

If so, the first three premises are contradictory - Bob says Gloops are plink 0.7 of the time, and almost all of that time he is correct, so p(Gloops are plink) > 0.4.

Thankyou and well spotted. Those completely arbitrary magic numbers don't stand up to a second glance. In particular 0.7 is just silly. If you already know what the expert is going to say you barely need the expert to say it and so cannot be in a state of knowledge such that p(B) is so low. I'd better change them.

Comment author: Caspian 24 January 2012 09:44:42AM *  0 points [-]

That didn't solve the main problem, I think I found what it was. I'll reply to the other post.