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SarahC comments on Open Thread: July 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong
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No, just personal experience and observation backed up by stories and blog posts from other people. See also Joel Spolsky on Hitting the High Notes. Spolsky's line is that some people are just never going to be that good at programming. I'd rephrase it as: some people are just never going to be motivated to spend long hours programming for the sheer fun and challenge of it, and so they're never going to be that good at programming.
This is a good null hypothesis for skill variation in many cases, but not one supported by the research in the paper gwern linked.