whpearson comments on Open Thread: July 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Alicorn 09 July 2010 06:54AM

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Comment author: whpearson 14 July 2010 08:53:46PM *  7 points [-]

From the article (there is a near invisible more text button)

Calculating the actual odds of Ginther hitting four multimillion-dollar lottery jackpots is tricky. If Ginther's winning tickets were the only four she ever bought, the odds would be one in 18 septillion, according to Sandy Norman and Eduardo Duenez, math professors at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

And she was the only person ever to have bought 4 tickets (birthday paradoxes and all)...

I did see an analysis of this somewhere, I'll try and dig it up. Here it is. There is hackernews commentary here.

I find this, from the original msnbc article, depressing

After all, the only way to win is to keep playing. Ginther is smart enough to know that's how you beat the odds: she earned her doctorate from Stanford University in 1976, then spent a decade on faculty at several colleges in California.

Teaching math.

Comment author: nhamann 15 July 2010 07:34:28PM 2 points [-]

I find this, from the original msnbc article, depressing

Is it depressing because someone with a Ph.D. in math is playing the lottery, or depressing because she must've have figured out something we don't know, given that she's won four times?

Comment author: whpearson 16 July 2010 09:39:49AM 1 point [-]

The former. It is also depressing because it can be used in articles on the lottery in the following way, "See look at this person good at maths, playing the lottery, that must mean it is a smart thing to play the lottery".

Comment author: Blueberry 16 July 2010 09:23:48AM 1 point [-]

Depressing because someone with a Ph.D. in math is playing the lottery. I don't see any reason to think she figured out some way of beating the lottery.