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WrongBot comments on Open Thread: July 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong
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"Where'd you get your universal prior, Neo?"
Eliezer seems to think (or, at least he did at the time) that this isn't a solvable problem. To phrase the question in a way more relevant to recent discussions, are those statements in any way similar to "a halting oracle exists"?
Solomonoff's prior can't predict something uncomputable, but I don't see anything obviously uncomputable about any of the 3 statements you asked about.
Right. But can it predict computable scenarios in which it is wrong?
Yes. Anything that can be represented by a turing machine gets a nonzero prior. And its model of itself goes in the same turing machine with the rest of the world.