= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
lmm comments on Closet survey #1 - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (653)
I think I agree with your premises here, but my conclusion is that our predictions will be weakly correlated with reality and our best plans will have a 55% or 51% success rate, not that they will have no effect or negative effect.
There no reason to assume that messing with a complex system that you don't understand means that you will have on average a 50% success rate.
There are many cases where trying to push a complex system into a local optima might have bad consequences. The system might get more robust but lose resiliency.