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Alex_Altair comments on Prisoner's Dilemma Tournament Results - Less Wrong
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I am now very curious to see how U would perform if that were changed.
The reply is (to my great surprise, I thought this bit isn't much important part of that strategy) much better. It will earn more than 7200 points instead of 3200 before the change.
Hmm.. Starting with D - C as its first two moves, it will get in response from all TfT-based strategies a C - D Which means it will end up believing that other bots are likely to cooperate if it defects, and to defect if it cooperates. Which will be further boosted by the response in the third move (Defect), which will receive a (Cooperate) in response, thus further increasing its belief in the worth of defection. It seems likely to effectively become a defectbot in this manner.
On the other hand a C-D returns it a corresponding C-C, which followed by another D returns it a D; this seems more favourable for cooperation.
I have changed it to begin with C-C rather than C-D, but nevertheless you are probably right.
First impressions apparently matter.