moridinamael comments on PredictionBook: A Short Note - Less Wrong

20 Post author: Jayson_Virissimo 10 November 2011 03:10PM

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Comment author: moridinamael 10 November 2011 04:24:10PM 1 point [-]

I contemplated a strategy of always taking the average of the listed predictions. But that would be boring.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 12 November 2013 06:16:02PM 1 point [-]

A less boring strategy: make two accounts, one assigning probabilities based on your intuition alone; the other based on the average of the listed predictions. Compare their calibrations.