The first half just needs to cut the dichotomy to be better, but I was strongly unsatisfied with the second half.

Humans are bad at choosing what to do in situations we're not used to or trained in, because our intuitive judgments don't work so good. If you would like me to support this claim further, I know a nice blog I could point you to.

Your argument in the last bits boils down to "valuing options in direct proportion to their probability is unintuitive, therefore we shouldn't do it," and has gigantic red flags plastered to it. Gotta watch out for those red flags.