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Harry Potter and The Methods of Rationality

What if Harry was a scientist? What would you do if the universe had magic in it? 
A story that conveys many rationality concepts, helping to make them more visceral, intuitive and emotionally compelling.

Raemon4d*9347
Heroic Responsibility
I think this part of Heroic Responsibility isn't too surprising/novel to people. Obviously the business owner has responsibility for the business. The part that's novel is more like: If I'm some guy working in legal, and I notice this hot potato going around, and it's explicitly not my job to deal with it, I might nonetheless say "ugh, the CEO is too busy to deal with this today and it's not anyone else's job. I will deal with it." Then you go to each department head, even if you're not even a department head you're a lowly intern (say), and say "guys, I think we need to decide who's going to deal with this." And if their ego won't let them take advice from an intern, you might also take it as your responsibility to figure out how to navigate their ego – maybe by making them feel like it was their own idea, or by threatening to escalate to the CEO if they don't get to it themselves, or by appealing to their sense of duty. A great example of this, staying with them realm of "random Bureaucracy", I got from @Elizabeth: E. D. Morel was a random bureaucrat at a shipping company in 1891. He noticed that his company was shipping guns and manacles into the Congo, and shipping rubber and other resources back out to Britain. It was not Morel's job to notice that this was a bit weird. It was not Morel's job to notice that that weirdness was a clue, and look into those clues. And then find out that what was happening was, weapons were being sent to the Congo to forcibly steal resources at gunpoint. It was not his job to make it his mission to raise awareness of the Congo abuses and stop them. But he did. ... P.S. A failure mode of rationalists is to try to take Heroic responsibility for everything, esp. in a sort of angsty way that is counterproductive and exhausting. It's also a failure mode to act as if only you can possibly take Heroic responsibility, rather than trying to model the ecosystem around you and the other actors (some of whom might be Live Players who are also taking Heroic Responsibility, some of whom might be sort of local actors following normal incentives but are still, like, part of the solution) There is nuance to when and how to do Heroic Responsibility well.
niplav2d*360
People Seem Funny In The Head About Subtle Signals
Hm, I am unsure how much to believe this, even though my intuitions go the same way as yours. As a correlational datapoint, I tracked my success from cold approach and the time I've spent meditating (including a 2-month period of usually ~2 hours of meditation/day), and don't see any measurable improvement in my success rate from cold approach: (Note that the linked analysis also includes a linear regression of slope -6.35e-08, but with p=0.936, so could be random.) In cases where meditation does stuff to your vibe-reading of other people, I would guess that I'd approach women who are more open to being approached. I haven't dug deeper into my fairly rich data on this, and the data doesn't include much post-retreat approaches, but I still find the data I currently have instructive. I wish more people tracked and analyzed this kind of data, but I seem alone in this so far. I do feel some annoyance at everyone (the, ah, "cool people"?) in this area making big claims (and sometimes money off of those claims) without even trying to track any data and analyze it, leaving it basically to me to scramble together some DataFrames and effect sizes next to my dayjob.[1] > So start meditating for an hour a day for 3 months using the mind illuminated as an experiment (getting some of the cool skills mentioned in Kaj Sotala's sequence?) and see what happens? Do you have any concrete measurable predictions for what would happen in that case? ---------------------------------------- 1. I often wonder if empiricism is just incredibly unintuitive for humans in general, and experimentation and measurement even more so. Outside the laboratory very few people do it, and see e.g. Aristotle's claims about the number of women's teeth or his theory of ballistics, which went un(con)tested for almost 2000 years? What is going on here? Is empiricism really that hard? Is it about what people bother to look at? Is making shit up just so much easier so that everyone keeps in that mode, which is a stable equilibrium? ↩︎
tslarm1d2131
Did you know you can just buy blackbelts?
In the case of Calibration Trivia, my gut reaction is that you're being a bit unfair to the 'clever fellow' (or at least to the hypothetical version of him in my head, who isn't simply being a smartarse). It sounds like you're presenting Calibration Trivia as a competitive game, and within that frame it makes sense to poke at edge cases in the rules and either exploit them or, if the exploit would clearly just be tedious and pointless, suggest that the rules are preemptively tweaked to unbreak the game. I know the ultimate purpose of the game is to train a real skill, but still, you've chosen gamification as your route to that goal, and maybe there are no free lunches on offer here; to the extent that people derive extra motivation from the competitive element, they're also going to be focused on the proxy goal of scoring points rather than purely on the underlying goal of training the skill.
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493Welcome to LessWrong!
Ruby, Raemon, RobertM, habryka
6y
76
Berkeley Solstice Weekend
2025 NYC Secular Solstice & East Coast Rationalist Megameetup
168
The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction
Raelifin
3d
16
87
LLM-generated text is not testimony
TsviBT
6d
80
[Today]LW-Cologne meetup
[Today]ACX Montreal meetup - November 8th @1PM
First Post: Chapter 1: A Day of Very Low Probability
25Solstice Season 2025: Ritual Roundup & Megameetups
Raemon
2d
0
272I ate bear fat with honey and salt flakes, to prove a point
aggliu
5d
38
233Legible vs. Illegible AI Safety Problems
Ω
Wei Dai
4d
Ω
68
289Why I Transitioned: A Case Study
Fiora Sunshine
7d
48
740The Company Man
Tomás B.
2mo
70
690The Rise of Parasitic AI
Adele Lopez
2mo
178
168The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction
Raelifin
3d
16
73A country of alien idiots in a datacenter: AI progress and public alarm
Seth Herd
1d
6
189You’re always stressed, your mind is always busy, you never have enough time
mingyuan
7d
6
151Lack of Social Grace is a Lack of Skill
Screwtape
6d
22
357Hospitalization: A Review
Logan Riggs
1mo
21
232On Fleshling Safety: A Debate by Klurl and Trapaucius.
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13d
51
148What's up with Anthropic predicting AGI by early 2027?
ryan_greenblatt
5d
15
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dynomight1h220
0
Just had this totally non-dystopian conversation: "...So for other users, I spent a few hours helping [LLM] understand why it was wrong about tariffs." "Noooo! That does not work." "Relax, it thanked me and stated it was changing its answer." "It's lying!" "No, it just confirmed that it's not lying."
GradientDissenter12h5928
cdt, jamjam
2
There’s a cottage industry that thrives off of sneering, gawking, and maligning the AI safety community. This isn't new, but it's probably going to become more intense and pointed now that there are two giant super PACs that (allegedly[1]) see safety as a barrier to [innovation/profit, depending on your level of cynicism]. Brace for some nasty, uncharitable articles. I think the largest cost of this targeted bad press will be the community's overreaction, not the reputational effects outside the AI safety community. I've already seen people shy away from doing things like donating to politicians that support AI safety for fear of provoking the super PACs. Historically, the safety community often freaked out in the face of this kind of bad press. People got really stressed out, pointed fingers about whose fault it was, and started to let the strong frames in the hit pieces get into their heads.[2] People disavowed AI safety and turned to more popular causes. And the collective consciousness decided that the actions and people who ushered in the mockery were obviously terrible and dumb, so much so that you'd get a strange look if you asked them to justify that argument. In reality I think many actions that were publicly ridiculed were still worth it ex-ante despite the bad press. It seems bad press is often much, much more salient to the subjects of that press than it is to society at large, and it's best to shrug it off and let it blow over. Some of the most PR-conscious people I know are weirdly calm during actual PR blowups and are sometimes more willing than the "weird" folks around me to take dramatic (but calculated) PR risks. In the activist world, I hear this is a well-known phenomenon. You can get 10 people to protest a multi-billion-dollar company and a couple journalists to write articles, and the company will bend to your demands.[3] The rest of the world will have no idea who you are, but to the executives at the company, it will feel the world is wat
Daniel Paleka17h6413
0
Slow takeoff for AI R&D, fast takeoff for everything else Why is AI progress so much more apparent in coding than everywhere else? Among people who have "AGI timelines", most do not set their timelines based on data, but rather update them based on their own day-to-day experiences and social signals. As of 2025, my guess is that individual perception of AI progress correlates with how closely someone's daily activities resemble how an AI researcher spends their time. The reason why users of coding agents feel a higher rate of automation in their bones, whereas people in most other occupations don't, is because automating engineering has been the focus of the industry for a while now. Despite the expectations for 2025 to be the year of the AI agent, it turns out the industry is small and cannot have too many priorities, hence basically the only competent agents we got in 2025 so far are coding agents. Everyone serious about winning the AI race is trying to automate one job: AI R&D. To a first approximation, there is no point yet in automating anything else, except to raise capital (human or investment), or to earn money. Until you are hitting diminishing returns on your rate of acceleration, unrelated capabilities are not a priority. This means that a lot of pressure is being applied to AI research tasks at all times; and that all delays in automation of AI R&D are, in a sense, real in a way that's not necessarily the case for tasks unrelated to AI R&D. It would be odd if there were easy gains to be made in accelerating the work of AI researchers on frontier models in addition to what is already being done across the industry. I don't know whether automating AI research is going to be smooth all the way there or not; my understanding is that slow vs fast takeoff hinges significantly on how bottlenecked we become by non-R&D factors over time. Nonetheless, the above suggests a baseline expectation: AI research automation will advance more steadily compared to auto
Mo Putera3h110
0
Something about the imagery in Tim Krabbe's quote below from April 2000 on ultra-long computer database-generated forced mates has stuck with me, long years after I first came across it; something about poetically expressing what superhuman intelligence in a constrained setting might look like: And from that linked essay above, Stiller's Monsters - or perfection in chess: In 2014 Krabbe's diary entry announced an update to the forced mate length record at 549 moves: Krabbe of course includes all the move sequences in his diary entries at the links above, I haven't reproduced them here.
LWLW21h33-12
clone of saturn, waterlubber, and 7 more
13
I just can’t wrap my head around people who work on AI capabilities or AI control. My worst fear is that AI control works, power inevitably concentrates, and then the people who have the power abuse it. What is outlandish about this chain of events? It just seems like we’re trading X-risk for S-risks, which seems like an unbelievably stupid idea. Do people just not care? Are they genuinely fine with a world with S-risks as long as it’s not happening to them? That’s completely monstrous and I can’t wrap my head around it.  The people who work at the top labs make me ashamed to be human. It’s a shandah. This probably won’t make a difference, but I’ll write this anyways. If you’re working on AI-control, do you trust the people who end up in charge of the technology to wield it well? If you don’t, why are you working on AI control?
GradientDissenter3d*8413
Ryan Meservey, RobertM, and 6 more
13
Notes on living semi-frugally in the Bay Area. I live in the Bay Area, but my cost of living is pretty low: roughly $30k/year. I think I live an extremely comfortable life. I try to be fairly frugal, both so I don't end up dependent on jobs with high salaries and so that I can donate a lot of my income, but it doesn't feel like much of a sacrifice. Often when I tell people how little I spend, they're shocked. I think people conceive of the Bay as exorbitantly expensive, and it can be, but it doesn't have to be. Rent: I pay ~$850 a month for my room. It's a small room in a fairly large group house I live in with nine friends. It's a nice space with plenty of common areas and a big backyard. I know of a few other places like this (including in even pricier areas like Palo Alto). You just need to know where to look and to be willing to live with friends. On top of rent I pay ~$200/month (edit: I was missing one expense, it's more like $300) for things like utilities, repairs on the house, and keeping the house tidy. I pool the grocery bill with my housemates so we can optimize where we shop a little. We also often cook for each other (notably most of us, including myself, also get free meals on weekdays in the offices we work from, though I don't think my cost of living was much higher when I was cooking for myself each day not that long ago). It works out to ~$200/month. I don't buy that much stuff. I thrift most of my clothes, but I buy myself nice items when it matters (for example comfy, somewhat-expensive socks really do make my day better when I wear them). I have a bunch of miscellaneous small expenses like my Claude subscription, toothpaste, etc, but they don't add up to much. I don't have a car, a child, or a pet (but my housemate has a cat, which is almost the same thing). I try to avoid meal delivery and Ubers, though I use them in a pinch. Public transportation costs aren't nothing, but they're quite manageable. I actually have a PA who helps me with
J Bostock1h20
0
HPMOR presents a protagonist who has a brain which is 90% that of a merely very smart child, but which is 10% filled with cached thought patterns taken directly from a smarter, more experienced adult. Part of the internal tension of Harry is between the un-integrated Dark Side thoughts and the rest of his brain. Ironic then, that the effect that reading HPMOR---and indeed a lot of Yudkowsky's work---was to imprint a bunch of un-integrated alien thought patterns onto my existing merely very smart brain. A lot of my development over the past few years has just been trying to integrate these things properly with the rest of my mind.
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