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Raemon comments on Rationality quotes January 2012 - Less Wrong
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If I had been thinking better I would have specified "did he know" rather than "did he plan" so that we could resolve the issue. (I think there is at least a 30% chance one (if not both) of us will have forgotten this wager by the time the reveal happens)
That's what PredictionBook is for. So far I have a good record for long-term use of it...