Stuart_Armstrong comments on The Ellsberg paradox and money pumps - Less Wrong
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How does this work, then? Can you justify that the bonus is free without circularity?
Sure. There may be circularity concerns here as well though. Also, if one expects there to be a market for something, that should be accounted for. In the extreme case, I have no inherent use for cash, my utility consists entirely in the expected market.
I also gave the example of risk-aversion though. If trades pay in cash, risk-averse Bayesians can't totally separate them either. But generally I won't dispute that the ideal use of this method is more complex than the ideal Bayesian reasoner.
I wonder if you can express your result in a simpler fashion... Model your agent as a combination of a buying agent and a selling agent. The buying agent will always pay less than a Bayesian, the selling agent will always sell for more. Hence (a bit of hand waving here) the combined agent will never lose money to a money pump. The problem is that it won't pick up 'free' money.