Morendil comments on Causal diagrams and software engineering - Less Wrong

32 Post author: Morendil 07 March 2012 06:23PM

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Comment author: Morendil 07 March 2012 08:55:04PM 2 points [-]

Not really. If hindsight bias is "when people who know the answer vastly overestimate its predictability or obviousness" (from the linked post), this is different - it's "when people who know the outcome identify a cause that exonerates them from blame".

Comment author: dvasya 07 March 2012 10:33:50PM 0 points [-]

Okay, how about this then? :)

Always make sure to write down your predictions in advance.

Comment author: Dmytry 09 March 2012 10:16:25AM *  0 points [-]

Well, that is not entirely how science works because often you take in the results and then you see some pattern you didn't suspect would be there. The problem is when you don't really know how many possible patterns your brain was testing for when it seen the pattern.