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roystgnr comments on Nonmindkilling open questions - Less Wrong
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Substitute "next week" or "next month" as appropriate.
Next week: 90%+ Next month: See next week.
So, you very much expect it to rain some time next week, but specifically not next thursday. Is that because you have storm clouds coming in? 'cause if they're independent, that math doesn't work out at all.
probability of 7 days of not-rain
0.9 ^ 7 > 0.1
Indeed, am am expecting no rain on Thursday, but it's raining now. Specifically on Thursday, we will have a dry air mass moving in.