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Nominull comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 - Less Wrong
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I would say that the "most wise" one among Dumbledore, Quirrell, and Harry is definitely not the one whose model does not account for observed reality.
When we look at another person's action and assume a simple reason, "not their role," "lacking serious ambition," or "crazy, just crazy," we make an excuse not to spend more time modeling their motivations. That may be useful and efficient.
I think the author believes it is most wise to avoid the easy answers and continue to examine the problem.
I would have said Quirrell buy far. Your thoughts?
The "most wise" ought to be Quirrell, who is certainly being the most knowledgeable and the most sane. Unfortunately the meaning of "wise" has been twisted into knots by the history of literature, which has mixed it up with morality.
So... Harry then? Or still Quirrell?
I wrote Dumbledore off as evil long ago, admittedly based off my own idiosyncratic definition of evil. Some of his decisions are inexcusable.
If I didn't have as high an opinion of the author as I did, I'd think he meant Harry because Quirrell's cynical, mostly-accurate view is somehow immoral. Actually, I think it could be either Quirrell or Harry: Quirrell because he has a more detailed and largely correct model, Harry because he recognizes that whatever the cause of the Wizengamot's lack of ambition, it has to do with them being insane to the point of inability to achieve/imagine greatness, not purely because they have no great desires. That is, the Wizengamot wizards' problem isn't purely a result of lame terminal values. I'm probably not explaining this very clearly, and I apologize, but what it comes down to is that I think EY meant Harry is the most wise, and there are arguments for him actually being so, but Quirrell is either wiser or a close second. Also note that Quirrell is supposed to have a lot in common with Robin Hanson on the subject of most people's psychology.
Robin in Quirrell is apparent at times but Quirrell still seems quite Eliezer based to me :)
True. I said "on the subject of most people's psychology" because that's where the similarities to Hanson are strongest and also because that's the subject where he's competing for "most wise".
Harry is the wisest because he can notice his confusion.
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I'd like to change my answer to this.
What about efficacy? Having a good model doesn't mean you'll do anything interesting with it.
Namely?