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Edit: While some points may remain useful for the sake of reference, this theory is disproved in Chapter 82, and Aberforth's death no longer lacks narrative purpose.

Who killed Narcissa?

Suspects:

Dumbledore
Bones
Lucius
Voldemort
Someone else

HJPEV tells us that this doesn't fit the headmaster's style. His style is curiously consistent.

There is one offhand remark, vengeance, and a practical cold-heartedness favoring Bones. "Why not Bones?" is only a little better than no argument at all.

Lucius is presented as a devoted family man. It would be inconsistent characterization for him to do this. That works for real life, but HP&tMoR is fiction, which must make sense.

Voldemort has reason not to do this, as it made a fool out of one of his tools and weakened his side by making them less willing to strike indiscriminately.

I have a 'someone else' theory: Aberforth killed Narcissa. Aberforth is dead, and meaningfully so due to Conservation of Detail. We know little else about him from HP&tMoR. Only that he didn't testify against his brother in the death of his sister, and his brother got quite stern when he died. Basically, this theory allows me to put a piece in a puzzle because it fits, not because the image on the piece makes me think it goes with the pieces next to the hole. Also, I get to write the following paragraph.

In a world where innocents are dying, where evil is winning and good people live in fear for their loved ones, one man had the courage to do what must be done. Aberforth Dumbledore is Narcissa's Immolator.

Aberfoth kills his enemy's wife, informs his brother of what he's done, and then dies either at his own hand or, less style-consistently, his brother's. He knows that his brother will take this atrocity/sacrifice and make the best of it, and in so doing he saved countless 'light side' family members.

He did it all to make up for killing his sister and allowing his brother to kind of take the blame. Maybe.

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orthonormal13y20

It's going to turn out that Dumbledore did intentionally burn an innocent Narcissa Malfoy to death, but for a justifiable reason (though it's going to be interesting to see what that could be), and thus Harry is going to have the impossible task of convincing Draco to let him out of the promise.

2hairyfigment13y

I disagree. The last part is an inference, and I think we have more evidence that the killing prevented any peace between Lucius and Dumbledore in Voldemort's absence. (I don't know how much stress to put on this, but we learn that Draco thinks the death had this effect in the same chapter where he tells us to understand strange plots by looking at the outcomes. Seems at least 90% certain the author meant us to suspect Voldemort when he wrote that.) Now, Donny just pointed out that Voldemort could have faked his death entirely by, say, transfiguring some chickens and burning them. We also know that his treatment of Bellatrix ensured her devotion to him would not count as a happy memory and would thus continue in Azkaban. I think he intended this effect, meaning he planned for the possibility of seeming to lose. It sounds like he planned for that from the start. Setting fire to a chicken back in Chapter 17 should increase P(Dumbledore did it, and is a sadist). But supposedly DD's weakness lies in doing evil "For the Greater Good," not in having fond memories of the time he burned a woman to death. Seems more likely to me that he suspects Voldemort faked a burned body (per Donny's guess), but can't say so because he has no convincing explanation for why V hasn't visibly acted since then. So he just taught Harry to doubt such appearances.

1clgroft13y

Interesting idea. My pet theory for some time has been that Narcissa was a Horcrux, and that Dumbledore was destroying said Horcrux by the only means he could—Fiendfyre. Are there any obvious gaps? (EDIT: pedantarrific below points one out.)

See in context

9 Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81

by bogdanb

27th Mar 2012

1 min read

1112

9

This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 81, which should be published later today. The previous thread passed 400 comments as of the time of this writing, so it will pass 500 comments soon after the next chapter is posted, if not before. I suggest refraining from commenting here until chapter 81 is posted; comment in the 12th thread until you read chapter 81. After chapter 81 is posted, I suggest all discussion of previous guesses be kept here, with links to comments in the previous thread.

There is now a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author’s Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.) When posted, chapter 81 should appear here.

The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag. Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system. Also: one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight,nine, ten, eleven, twelve.

As a reminder, it’s often useful to start your comment by indicating which chapter you are commenting on.

Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically:

You do not need to rot13 anything about HP:MoR or the original Harry Potter series unless you are posting insider information from Eliezer Yudkowsky which is not supposed to be publicly available (which includes public statements by Eliezer that have been retracted).

If there is evidence for X in MOR and/or canon then it’s fine to post about X without rot13, even if you also have heard privately from Eliezer that X is true. But you should not post that “Eliezer said X is true” unless you use rot13.

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18Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89

15Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 17, chapter 86

13Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 23, chapter 94

12Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 20, chapter 90

12Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82

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Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81

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[-]jimrandomh13y600

This is probably not the solution Harry's going to use in Chapter 81 (I'm writing this before it was posted), but a friend and I were discussing it and came up with a possible solution. I decided it would be much more fun as a piece of fanfanfiction rather than an abstract description, so here it is. I hope you have as much fun reading it as I did writing.

Chapter 81b: Alternate Solution

Beyond all panic and despair his mind began to search through every fact in its possession, recall everything it knew about Lucius Malfoy, about the Wizengamot, about the laws of magical Britain; his eyes looked at the rows of chairs, at every person and every thing within range of his vision, searching for any opportunity it could grasp -

And the start of an idea formed - not a plan, but a tiny fragment of one. He spelled out N-O-T-E on his fingers, and, as discretely as he could, drew a piece of paper out from his bag that he did not remember putting there. It read:

"Mess with time if you want!"

And then he heard a loud bang, and another while he was stuffing the note back in his bag, and he looked up to see that a circular piece had pushed out from the wall, (that wall that could've withs... (read more)

7ArisKatsaris13y

Highly unlikely for something like this to happen in the actual HPMOR -- but I actually enjoyed it, so I thank you for posting it.

2Alsadius13y

Seconding this.

6NihilCredo13y

The next time Eliezer puts up an omake page, he definitely needs to include this.

7Alsadius13y

Hell, you could damn near make an omake page out of all the alternate theories we posted.

3wedrifid13y

I love it! Especially the last paragraph.

1DanArmak13y

So, you didn't explain how he could do that. Last time it took a spell from Quirrel to hold the shell in place. I'm guessing it's not as simple as holding the shell with one hand and spinning the hourglass inside it. Also, Harry can't clone (loop) himself four times during the trial if he goes back two hours. That would result in looping himself four times for the time period from 2 to 1 hours before present. To loop himself four times (or he could make it five) during the trial itself, he should go back only one hour.

5jimrandomh13y

Quirrell anchored the hourglass with a spell, and then Harry spun the shell around it. We never see Harry perform the anchoring spell, but we don't have any information about its difficulty, so presumably Harry could do it too if he prepared. He's giving himself an extra hour to prepare. The second, third, and fourth iterations only involve going back one hour, so that leaves a turn to spare. I'll edit to make that clearer.

0play_therapist13y

I love it. I didn't realize you could write fiction so well!

[-]Xachariah13y480

Idea: Making the money back will be much more difficult than most people anticipate, including Harry.

Reason: Many wizards are highly motivated towards finance and would exhaust every opportunity to generate infinite gold. The rich wizards of the Wizengamot considered 100,000 galleons to be a lot of money.

First, imagine all the ways a wizard could make effectively infinite amounts of muggle money. Arbitrage. Use a time turner and win at the stock market. Use a time turner and win the super-lotto. Imperius (or love potion, false memory charm, groundhog day attack, etc) any billionaire and take part of their fortune. Mind trick some bankers with fake documents (as Dumbledore does in book 6). Go rob some banks with invisibility and teleportation (and/or a time turner). Use magic to secure a job with a 50 million dollar golden parachute with very generous terms. Make huge amounts of drug money as a courier via teleportation/portkey. Sell 5 galleon trinkets to muggle collectors for millions of dollars each. Etc., etc., etc..

Some of them are more risky, some of them are less risky, but I bet that any member of these forums could get at least $50 million in a week if we were w... (read more)

[-]Desrtopa13y370

I think that taking advantage of muggles in lots of ways is against the law, so imperiusing or memory charming a billionaire would be forbidden. I wouldn't be at all surprised if people have thought of and maybe tried using time turners to cheat the muggle lottery, so I'd give fair odds that's illegal too. When it comes to arbitrage though, remember that while wizards in general may not be tremendously stupid, they tend to be incredibly clueless about the muggle world; remember that Arthur Weasley can pass as a premier expert on muggle artifacts. The fact that the values of gold and silver in the muggle world are totally divorced from their value in the wizarding world is likely to be very little known, and the concept of arbitrage may be completely foreign to them as well (look how primitive their whole financial system appears to be.)

The fact that Mr. Bester, Harry's occlumency instructor, said he wished he could remember "That trick with the gold and silver" implies that a) the idea is not obvious to most wizards, and b) he thinks he would at least stand a chance of getting away with it.

[-]Eponymuse13y140

I completely agree. Recall also Draco's speech about muggles scratching in the dirt, and his reaction to Harry's estimate of the lunar program budget. It's not just wizards not paying attention to relative values of gold and silver in the muggle world---for the most part, the possibility that there could be a substantial amount of either in the muggle world doesn't occur to them. Now you might expect muggleborns to know better, even after making allowances for the fact that they enter the wizarding world at age 11. On the other hand, if a muggleborn is clever enough to see the potential for profit, they might also be clever enough to see what Harry apparently does not---that calling attention to the fact that the muggles are ripe for exploitation is a Bad Idea.

[-]Xachariah13y170

I would actually suspect parents of a half blood (is there a name for this?) would be the weak link, rather than muggle-born children.

You've got people who have lived their whole lives as muggles, then suddenly they fall in love and get married and find out their spouse is a wizard. They've spent ~20 years in the muggle world and probably have a career of their own. No way they don't ask their spouse to spend a couple hours and let them both live like kings for the rest of their lives. And if they don't even get that much information about their other's life, that's some seriously messed up power dynamics in that household.

0Anubhav13y

Pop quiz: What percentage of Muggles have ever heard the word "arbitrage"? (Retracted because reply makes sense)

9Xachariah13y

I'm thinking more "Go magic that banker and we'll be rich." Or "Hey can you use that wicker spinmaster thingy to get us the lotto numbers?" I presume if the witch/wizard owned one they'd figure out what it does eventually. They'd have to after a long enough time living together.

[-]Desrtopa13y140

Also, as Harry himself speculates, muggleborns, like his mother, probably tend to fall into the habit of not thinking of muggles as Real People anymore, because it's too emotionally taxing, and they're living in a different world. They may stop concerning themselves with the muggle world much by the time they're grown up. The muggle raised wizards in the original canon certainly seemed to.

1Normal_Anomaly13y

All good points, but I don't think Harry is planning on "calling atttention to the fact that the muggles are ripe for exploitation". He's presumably planning to make the money without anyone except one or two adults he needs for transportation/permission/whatever knowing how he did it.

5Xachariah13y

Oh, I'm sure taking advantage of muggles is treated even worse than taking advantage of pets. But there are a lot of rich people and a lot of ways to steal their money. Ditto with the lottery. Maybe they police the lottery, but do they police stock exchanges, leveraged currency trading, futures markets, prediction accounts, sports betting, Vegas, etc.? It takes ten minutes to think of a dozen ways to get effectively infinite muggle money with magic. There's no way to stop it all. Hence, the block (if it exists) has to be at the interface point. Somewhere in between when muggle money turns into galleons.

[-]Desrtopa13y260

My guess is that rather than policing any of various muggle institutions, they investigate, as we do in our own world, whenever anyone appears to suddenly come into possession of large amounts of money for no clear reason, and if they find out they did something illegal, they throw them in jail.

Maybe people are already using wizardry to get huge amounts of money through the muggle world, but if so they may have to store and use the money very inconspicuously.

[-]Xachariah13y230

I wonder if they do. The wizarding world is a bizarre mix of modern and ancient traditions. It seems just as likely for them to have an income tax as not. So, they may or may not have the bureaucratic apparatus in place to know how much money people have and make.

I also wonder what the official stance would be on, say, bilking the stock market. It seems like standing up for muggle rights would be an unpopular political stance. Since there's no direct victim and you're doing things that aren't even illegal in the muggle world (nevermind they don't have time-travel), it seems unlikely the authorities would care to stop you, unless they have a blanket ban on anything that would result in inflation.

God, I'm such a double-nerd. There's a dark lord to be fought and I'm hoping the next plot arc is about wizard tax law and how magical Britain handles inflation.

[-]Alsadius13y170

The funny thing is, it's not really bilking the stock market. The whole argument for stock trading is that traders create value by accurately pricing securities, and thus allocating capital efficiently. Time travel is just a ridiculously efficient means of doing so. Given common access to Time-Turners, the stock market would literally be perfectly efficient(assuming that using turner-induced stock prices doesn't violate the 6-hour rule). People without them would be very pissed off, but I'd actually argue it as being the right and proper way to run a stock market if the technology existed.

7Username13y

The only thing is, once you have enough time turners to control most of the volume of the market, there are no longer any linear-time causal inputs (read: people) deciding what directions the market will take. Market fluctuations would literally come from nowhere, though it might be best said that they would come from Time. And given Harry's previous scary experiment (DO NOT MESS WITH TIME, ch. 17), I'm not sure it's such a good idea to let Time be the one to control this.

2wedrifid13y

Bolded word is redundant. This is a service being provided and nobody is having wealth that they have 'rights' to taken away. This is different in nature to using using time travel or to win at cards or roulette. The muggles end up better off than they were AND Harry is better off. Almost as though it is a trade. (Essentially I just agree with Alsadius.)

9TuviaDulin13y

This is by far the likeliest explanation I've seen. It does lead one to wonder how many wizards are sitting on huge piles of muggle money and slowly converting it into galleons as needed.

6fubarobfusco13y

In canon there is a Misuse of Muggle Artifacts office, but it's not terribly competent. However, the Minister of Magic also liaises with the Muggle Prime Minister; and presumably there is some exchange of information between their staffs. Any financial irregularities large enough to register on a national level could register that way.

[-]kilobug13y100

In canon at least, it's pretty clear that there is few interaction from Muggle Prime Minister and Minister of Magic, unless exceptional events occur. IIRC, in first 5 years, there is only two interactions : the Minister of Magic informing the Prime Minister about the escape of Sirius Black, and the dragons for the Triwizards Tournament. And there seems that not once did the Muggle Prime Minister directly contact the Minister of Magic, it only went the other way around.

So I'm sceptical about that. More likely the Ministry of Magic has someone working in the staff of the Muggle Prime Minister and informing the Ministry if something odds is happening.

3RobertLumley13y

This would require a wizarding equivalent of the IRS, which I've never heard of. I've never seen mention of taxes, but they obviously have to pay the ministry employees something. One of the consequences of their primitive monetary system is that it is very easy to obtain money without the government knowing it. Perhaps they could use muggle taxes to buy gold to be minted into galleons, and pay employees that way. In cannon, the prime minister knows about the wizarding world, and it's possible that information of it is just highly classified. I suppose money could be magically tracked, but there would still need to be a ministry department. And if that is possible, it easily defeats most money-making strategies.

5Desrtopa13y

If any money tracking is going on, I suspect it's done by the goblins, who I believe canonically have means of magically tracking things. You don't need to magically track money though, to keep record of how much money is in people's bank accounts, and take notice if someone who's not supposed to have lots of money suddenly starts making a lot of very expensive purchases.

3RobertLumley13y

That's assuming you put it in a bank account.

7Desrtopa13y

If you don't put it in a bank account, then assuming no magical tracking, you could spend lots of money so long as you don't reach a point where anyone starts asking "Hey, where did you get all this expensive stuff?" Since the wizarding world has so much smaller a population than ours and seems to be quite class stratified, it's quite conceivable that every person who's supposed to be really wealthy is already known and identifiable, and any Joe Shmoe who tries making a thousand galleon purchase is instantly flagged as suspicious.

1alex_zag_al13y

There's another motivation for secrecy. Anyone who makes money off the Muggle world benefits from being the only one making money off the Muggle world. If they're making lots of money, they don't want other people to start thinking about how.

[-]Logos0113y340

First, imagine all the ways a wizard could make effectively infinite amounts of muggle money. Arbitrage. Use a time turner and win at the stock market.

Neither of which are known to the Wizarding world, as evidenced by the Occlumency teacher's reaction to his discovery of it. (and his discovery of it, and his discovery of it... :) )

Something doesn't add up.

Your assessment of the Wizarding World's evaluation of the Muggle world. To the supermajority of Wizards, science is a total unknown. Economic and sociopolitical theory are terms they've simply never heard of.

They are isolated and effectively are like the apocryphal Chinese Emperor who burned his fleets because there was nothing left to discover; or the equally apocryphal Patent Office official who wanted to close the Patent Office in the 1800's because there was nothing left to invent.

So basically what you're seeing is what's called "hindsight bias". It is obvious to you, who knows what "Muggles" have, that the Wizards are vastly disadvantaged here -- insanely so -- but remember that as further demonstrated by Draco's total ignorance of Man's visit to the Moon, Wizards believe Muggles are "wallowing in the mud". The idea that they might LEARN from Muggles is actively suppressed by a concerted political campain by a powerful and long-standing major political faction.

[-]David_Gerard13y180

The people who would do this are not on the Wizengamot: Maybe this does happen. Perhaps all the muggle-born realize how easy it is to live a life of luxury in the muggle world and do exactly that, and only venture into the magical world when the want to go shopping. They have the best conveniences of both worlds and none of the dangers of either. This... actually sounds kinda plausible. Plus, there isn't a great job market for muggle-born.

Like going off to live in a poor country if you have a first-world income to live on. I believe it's already been remarked that this is about how magical Britain views muggle Britain.

[-]BlackNoise13y140

Some counter-evidence for getting gold being difficult: In chapter 27, Mister Bester (the Legilimens who trained Harry) said:

Though I do wish I could remember that trick with the gold and silver.

Implying that it was at least somewhat practical as a means for getting rich quickly.

8JoshuaZ13y

Bester has only thought about it for a few seconds so there could be problems that would occur to someone who is knowledgeable about the wizarding economy if they thought about it for a bit.

[-]BlackNoise13y170

I meant it as Bayesian evidence. (updating P(Arbitrage works) down on Bester regretting means updating up on him not Regretting)

Plus, this is stronger evidence for us than for Harry due to Conservation of Details and the recent disclaimer by EY that there are no red herrings, and that simple solutions != bad solutions (and in fact, the opposite is usually true).

ETA: Also, Bester probably thought about it more more than a few seconds, at least the first time he saw it in Harry's mind - Remember that he didn't just see those Ideas/secrets, he's also seen key moments of his previous conversations.

1Logos0113y

Bester also knew he wasn't going to be able to Remember it. And that he was supernaturally compelled to forget it. So why intentionally build anguish over something that would be awesome if you had it but that you simply can't have? I don't think his failure to follow through with it, given his obligations -- and compulsions -- to not do so -- should be counted as weighting against the efficacy of the principle.

1Alsadius13y

I don't follow your point. Who was discussing anguish? It seemed like mild annoyance in the original text, and a comment that annoyance does not imply truth in Joshua's comment.

[-]FiftyTwo13y130

Theres also a psychological dimension to consider. To most wizards, and especially the rich pure bloods who this would be most relevant to, muggles, muggle-borns and anything associated with them are incredibly low status. Mere knowledge of muggles is seen as a major social negative (see treatment of Arthur Weasley). As such they would have a strong incentive not to investigate muggle knowledge, and if you suggested to Lucius that he made his fortune and power from dealing with Muggles his brain might actually explode from shame.

5kilobug13y

Yes, but if it were just that, you would except a few low-status wizard to suddenly become very rich through muggle-side tricks. Arthur Weasley is probably too Gryffindor to do it himself, but since he has quite a lot of work with wizards doing tricks with "muggle artificats", you could except a few of them to get very rich by fiddling with the muggle world (especially muggle born, at 11 you know about stock markets and lottery) if it were so easy. My best guess is that it's illegal and the law enforcement is strong enough to not be worth the risk. Like, if you suddenly arrive at Gringotts with gold coming from nowhere, an investigation is done, and if that gold comes from a "muggle source", you're in trouble.

[-]Alsadius13y130

Remember, most of wizarding Britain is either people who were taken out of the muggle world at age 10-11 and don't come back, or people who never lived there at all. How many of them are actually going to understand finance well enough to have a sense of how to exploit it? And the ones who actually have money at Gringott's are almost by definition the ones who never even spent those 11 years in the muggle world, so they may well not have any idea that finance exists. And even if they do, the ignorance and prejudice is rather overpowering, and may well prevent proper use of it. Someone who has both seed capital and the knowledge of how to exploit the crap out of it is going to be rare, and the DMLE is likely going to step on anyone who gets too egregious about using wizarding advantages to do so.

(Edited first sentence for accuracy)

[-]Logos0113y100

Remember, most of wizarding Britain is people who were taken out of the muggle world at age 10-11 and don't come back.

I don't believe this is correct. In fact, isn't there a section in MoR where McGonagall relates to Harry that less than 10 "muggleborn" Wizards are being inducted into Hogwarts that year? (With Harry being one of them?)

5Alsadius13y

Right, I meant to edit that and got distracted. Replace with "Remember, most of wizarding Britain is either people who were taken out of the muggle world at age 10-11 and don't come back or people who never lived there at all".

5Alicorn13y

Halfbloods are more populous, and their Muggle parents probably give them some nontrivial connection to the Muggle world.

3pedanterrific13y

"Halfbloods" the way you're thinking don't actually exist in MoR. Wizard + muggle = all their children are squibs. Yeah, half the children of a wizard/squib pair are wizards, but how often do you think that occurs? Canonically Harry is referred to as a halfblood because his mother was muggleborn; that sort of thing- not muggleborn, but not "pure"blood either- probably accounts for most of the population.

5JoshuaZ13y

We don't know if this is the case. Looking at squib/wizard descent rates from wizard/muggle marriages would be an obvious additional test of Harry's genetic hypothesis, which he hasn't done. We don't know if Harry is correct about there being a single wizard gene.

5Normal_Anomaly13y

I really don't get how the genetics works in either MOR or canon. In canon, there are wizards with one wizard parent and one muggle parent, who aren't squibs (Snape and Riddle for two). That implies it's dominant. Also, squibs in canon are born to 2 wizard parents (Neville's pure-blood and was thought to be one, and it's mentioned in the definition), and squibs are implied to be pretty uncommon, which they wouldn't be if they were all heterozygotes. In the end, though, I support EY's right to make it work out however he feels like, because canon is confused and self-contradictory and MOR's point about complex adaptations being either ubiquitous or absent is true.

[-]bogdanb13y190

In canon, there are wizards with one wizard parent and one muggle parent, who aren't squibs (Snape and Riddle for two).

In canon they call “squib” the non-magic-capable child of two wizards.

In MoR, that means the child has only one copy of the recessive magic gene. (Either mommy didn’t love only daddy, or one copy of the gene got messed up somehow.) But in MoR you need to distinguish between genetic|squib (has one copy of the gene), and genealogic|squib (can’t do magic but has wizard/witch parents).

All genealogical|squibs are genetic|squibs, but wizards use the word “squib” only for the former, since wizards don’t know much about genetics, and about the magic gene in particular. They call anybody who isn’t a part of magic Britain a muggle (genealogical |muggle), even though they might actually be genetic|squibs.

An example: Wizard Nasty Pants does the nasty with lots of muggle women a couple of centuries ago. He doesn’t like commitments, so he abandons the women to raise their children alone.

All his children are genetic|squibs, but they’re raised by muggles and—after Mr. Nasty dies because he tried that with a witch married to a Gryffindor—nobody knows they had a wizard parent.

M... (read more)

3kilobug13y

Also, we cannot completely ignore the possibility of the "magic machinery" (the one that recognize the genetic marker) to have some kind of shuffling process that'll occasionally turn on or off the magical marker when an egg is fertilized. Either randomly, or based on events (triggers like "an egg fertilized exactly at the second where the moon is the fullest will have a high probability of having the magical marked added"). We have no hints towards that, so Occam's Razor would tend to give it a low probability, but it would seem coherent to me with the twisted, not really occamian, way magic seems to work. Harry's and Draco's experiment on the genes was low-scale enough so they had no chance of detecting any such shuffling. But sure, adultery is a much more plausible explanation of why squibs would occasionally appear in pure magical couples, and why there are "muggleborn".

5Eugine_Nier13y

Or that there is no genetic marker at all and the machinery uses some algorithm of its own to determine who should have magic which is heavily biased towards children of wizards.

3bogdanb13y

Well, Harry and Draco’s “experiment” (I’d say “poll” would be a better term) didn’t have a huge support population, but their numbers suggest that the bias would have to match suspiciously well with a genetic marker. That is, it seems that the actual results would be the same either way.

2JoshuaZ13y

I agree with most of this. However, I think it is worth noting that JKR's understanding of biology is about as good as her understanding of math or astronomy so I don't expect her to have even thought of this sort of thing. I don't think the nature of complex adaptations is a great argument in this context given that we've already found that magic doesn't seem to act very much like what science tells us to expect in general. While I support Eliezer's right to do what he wants, I suspect that Harry will turn out to be wrong about this, and that we'll find out in the story.

[-]see13y120

Let's quote the current author's notes:

One thing I did notice was that many readers (a) neglected simple solutions in favor of complex ones, (b) neglected obvious solutions in favor of nonobvious ones, and (c) suggested that the correct hints had been put there for deliberately deceptive purposes.
General announcement: I do not lie to my readers. Almost everything in HPMOR is generated by the underlying facts of the story. Sometimes it is generated by humor – I can’t realistically claim that comic timing that precise would occur in a purely natural magical universe. But nothing is there to deliberately fool the readers.
Methods of Rationality is a rationalist story. Your job is to outwit the universe, not the author. If it taught the lesson that the simple solution is always wrong because it is “too obvious”, it would be teaching rather the wrong moral. There are some cases where people have scored additional points by successful literary analysis, e.g. Checkov’s Gun principles. But the author is not your enemy, and the facts aren’t lies.

Now, yes, it is possible that Eliezer Yudkowsky's Author Note on this very chapter is a lie, and he will suddenly reveal a whole series of... (read more)

4ajuc13y

So everybody except Harry are holding idiot balls?

[-]RobertLumley13y240

I think that's an inescapable result of the idiot world J. K. Rowling made. There is just so much in cannon that makes so little sense.

9anotherblackhat13y

Doing something stupid, or just being an idiot in general isn't the same as holding the idiot ball.

7see13y

There are at least three methods of paying off the debt relatively easily, mentioned earlier in this discussion, that are fundamentally unavailable as ways of making money for the vast majority of wizards on the Wizengamot. One, using the Philosopher's Stone, is explicitly mentioned in the very comment you replied to. So, no, I don't think the people in the story are holding Idiot Balls.

2buybuydandavis13y

In terms of the knowledge that Muggles have culturally accumulated, yes. They're at least 500 years behind the times.

5Percent_Carbon13y

It varies. There are trains and gaslamplikethings and indoor plumbing.

0[anonymous]13y

I'm willing to bet most of them run on a non-negligible ammount of magic, though.

3pedanterrific13y

But the others, maybe. Or maybe not; we also have

2[anonymous]13y

I revise my position. 500 years seems to be excessive, in many areas. I would guess that the Hogwarts Express, and potentially even the toilets do rely on some level of magic, though.

0bogdanb13y

My understanding was that most of the “modern” items (excepting things like the lamps in Azkhaban) are magic-based items, they simply got the ideas from muggle items. There’s no obvious indication that Minerva’s clock was purely mechanical; the one Trelawney used had voice recognition, for example. Even torches are a “muggle-inspired technology” if you think about it. Purely magical lighting would be a glowing globe, or even unexplainably-lit rooms like the Wizengamot hall, there’s no reason to have it shaped like a torch (albeit proximity self-lighting and ever-burning) unless you got inspired by real torches and just went on with tradition, and at least many of those are probably not created by enchanting a manufactured torch. (Given how many there are in Hogwarts, and that you seem to find them even in rooms that didn’t exist yesterday, I’d guess the weird self-building architecture just includes most of them by itself.)

[-]JoshuaZ13y100

f they're arguing over lucrative ink importation rights it means they've already figured out arbitrage

Not really. All sorts of arguments and fights over importation rights occurred even during the height of merchantilism. That importing goods can be profitable is a much more obvious claim than that moving goods between markets can be profitable. The second is more abstract. Moreover, they don't think of the Muggle world as that important, so the fact that the Muggle world has imbalanced prices may not be obvious to them as something to even think about.

8SkyDK13y

I disagree. Harry can do partial transfiguration. If he cannot figure out ways to earn insane amounts of cash just through that then he is too retarded to be called rational (remember that he can actually extract resources in ways the wizarding world cannot - as I write in another place: mining ++). Plus you underestimate the degree of separation between the two worlds plus the extreme lack of respect the wizarding world holds for muggles. And about the 100.000 galleons: well if they're bright, ambitious and socially aware plus they're using questionable sources they SHOULD act surprised. Not acting surprised would give away their game to the idiots remaining. I will be severely disappointed if EY will waste time on the money issue. It doesn't deserve much more than a paragraph. Perhaps two just to let us know that Harry won't abuse it, because he doesn't want to call too much attention to himself.

3MixedNuts13y

How would one legally extract money from partial transfiguration? If you have a large object you want transfigured, is it cheaper to hire the only wizard in the world who can do partial transfigurations, or a team of powerful wizards who can just work on the whole thing? And how often does that happen anyway? He could make money from teaching it, but that'd be slow. Eliezer seems to believe that wizards are selectively stupid about economics, so you're probably right about the general issue. They could need to import it because they can't produce it locally at all. Also, please don't use slurs.

4Xachariah13y

I think partial transfiguration gains power by being a literal carving device. Normal transfiguration can force an object to take a shape, but they always revert. Partial transfiguration can carve pieces off selectively and have it be permanent. Eg, "the sculpture was always in the block of marble, I just removed what was not the sculpture." Although you'd need to set up incredible safety protocols. Presumably you'd transform the waste into a non-evaporative liquid while keeping a bubble headed charm on until you finite'd everything. Harry Potter is his own little subtractive universal CNC machine. He's infinite axis; he can work on any material; he can work on any size. A mail order service could be a multi-million dollar a year business, depending on how tight he could control his tolerances. This goes doubly so because it's in 1991 compared to modern day. Edit: Actually, I suppose sufficiently powerful wizards could do this too. They would just transfigure the whole block of steel into an engine+oil, drain it all, then finite it back so just an engine remained. And I don't think there's a big enough market for Harry to work exclusively on sculptures in the sides of the mountains or anything. Drat, foiled.

1SkyDK13y

Slurs? (oh you mean "idiots"? I'd refrain from that in the future; I didn't mean to be offensive EDIT: later clarified to referring to retarded which I'll also refrain from using in the future... me not being a native speaker will end up being expensive karma-wise). Transfiguring a whole mountain would: a) take more magical energy than most wizards could muster. b) not extract any resources. Partial transfiguring has the distinct advantage of not having to transfigure entire objects (such as mountains). Perhaps a spell could also help with actually finding valuable resources. Besides that partial transfiguration is an excellent break in/out spell (as seen earlier in TSPE) and I do not recall saying that Harry had to stay legal. He's shown already his ability to disregard the law (again TSPE) if he thinks it's worth it.

3arundelo13y

MixedNuts meant "retarded".

3wedrifid13y

I really hope Eliezer doesn't spend more than a sentence on that - and even then I would want the sentence to be mild. Any more than that and it would strike me as too much use of explicit sloppy thinking to justify narrative convenience.

8RomeoStevens13y

maybe I'm forgetting some piece of evidence but couldn't the simple explanation be that muggle gold isn't actually wizard gold and vice versa? Magical signature as mentioned or any number of other ways.

7Nornagest13y

He's got plenty of time, and doesn't need that much seed money or that high a growth rate -- unless Lucius has a plan that'll get intolerable well before his payment comes due. I ran some numbers, and if he's making 3% profit on each of one-third of all trading days for six years (which I think is if anything conservative -- the arbitrage hack early in the story would be a couple orders of magnitude more profitable until someone catches on), he needs a principal of a little under 40 Galleons to break the 100,000 mark by the end of year 7. For 60,000, it's more like 25. That's a decent amount of money if we're going by the prices we've seen for goods, but I'd be surprised if he couldn't borrow it from any of the suitably impressed adults he's surrounded himself with. Especially if they've got a motive to screw the Malfoys over.

[-]ygert13y180

Note that Harry secretly buried 100 Galleons in the backyard of his parents' house back in chapter 36, so having seed money is not an issue.

5JoshuaZ13y

Upvoted for an essentially accurate analysis. However a minor nitpick: The marginal fees and resources involved will likely make this not very profitable if one started out with a small amount of money. So it would make more sense to start out with say at least a hundred Galleons or so. (Incidentally, why are Galleons capitalized? Is that convention? Other currencies like pounds, dollars and euros aren't generally capitalized.)

3billybobfred13y

It seems to be a convention of fiction. Lots of fictional terms are capitalized when real-world analogues are near-universally left lowercase. (Species names immediately come to mind.)

3Nornagest13y

The coin names are capitalized in the Potter books, yeah. Don't know why.

4Xachariah13y

And for ridiculousness, have him start with a 100 million superlotto payout and get 5% instead of 3%. He'd have a couple hundred quadrillion dollars by the time he had to pay Lucius back. Obviously he couldn't earn that much. Aside from that much money not existing, they'd shut down all trades well before he got to the first trillion dollars. But still, it'd be amusing to have him with a giant mountain of gold equivalent to all the worlds combined reserves. "Lucius, you just grab that double-life-sized solid gold statue of myself. Don't worry about the small change, I've got extra."

5Nornagest13y

Well, sure, that's exponential growth for you. I'd actually rule out the scenario I present in the grandparent on narrative grounds: it's not interesting from a plot or a rationalist perspective to be interrupted every chapter or two with a description of Harry's latest trade, or even with his latest plan to wring another 5% out of his capital. (Maybe not that latter -- Spice and Wolf pulled it off. But that's a different kind of story.) Point is, this doesn't need to be attention-getting in or out of story, just repeatable. There are boring options that would work (day trading with a Time-Turner being only the first to come to mind). Since that's an unstable state for a story and the debt could easily have been omitted, at this point I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. I'm not expecting that shoe to come in the form of unexpected changes to the financial structure that the early chapters set up, though. That does paint the Wizengamot in a rather unflattering light, but these are people that have only the vaguest idea of what cars are -- an enormous blind spot concerning the Muggle world is quite consistent with the established culture.

6moridinamael13y

Further, perhaps ambiguous evidence that Harry's machinitions won't be as successful or simple as he imagines. From Chapter 20, in reference to Quirrell's insistence that Dumbledore pay for Harry's Occlumency lessons with a neutral party: Dumbledore immediately identifies Harry's money-making scheme as a terrible idea (even without knowing what exactly it is) and is actually willing to compromise his prior stance merely by being reminded how ignorant and childish Harry can be. Dumbledore is probably the number one character, except for perhaps Snape, who has demonstrated the most knowledge of Muggle technology, culture, and institutions. I think it's a good bet that Dumbledore, hearing Harry's statement, immediately realized that Harry had hatched some hare-brained scheme with all kinds of horrible consequences that were obvious to Dumbledore, with his knowledge of both worlds, but opaque to Harry.

[-]TimS13y180

For what it's worth, I interpreted this exchange as Dumbledore recognizing why it would be bad for someone to read Harry's mind. In other words, a competent plotter who didn't have society's interest at heart could implement Harry's ideas successfully to cause significant harm. I didn't take the exchange to show that D believed the ideas wouldn't work basically as intended with a minimum of unanticipated consequences.

In short, Lucius Malfoy shouldn't be able to read Harry's mind to gain a destabilizing amount of wealth.

4IneptatNormal13y

I think it's also important to remember that all these fancy smancy new ways of making money haven't really been around that long. Wizards live to be more than a hundred years old, and in general don't have a bunch of children. There's been only a couple generations in which many of these money making methods have been around - for example, the stock market has only existed in a convenient form since, say, 1910? And this story takes place in 1992. Eighty years really isn't that long in wizard years. And while a small percentage ten-year-olds in the 1990s might happen to have some idea of how the stock market can be manipulated for personal gains, probably only a vastly smaller number may have known in, say, 1940 - before the information age. The noble houses - the wizards that probably make up the majority of the Wizenagamot - are kind of implied to have been rich and powerful for a long time. If any of these people are young enough to have gone to Hogwarts after the thirties, and been humble enough to have taken Muggle Studies, and really paid attention when it came to the Great Depression, and happened to do background reading on the subject in order to exploit it, then sure, maybe it's already done. But given the information we have, I doubt this is widely known and regularly done enough to be a problem for Harry.

4anotherblackhat13y

Certainly, the planning fallacy applies. And even if, for example, arbitrage worked the way it seems, and without the extra pitfalls that have been mentioned, there's a lot more to it than just swapping silver for gold and back. Harry's 11, he can't leave Hogwarts, his finances are tightly controlled by Dumbledore, 100,000 galleons = 1.7 million sickles ~= 17 tonnes of silver. Your dad doesn't just slip that into his back pocket. You're going to need help lifting it, security to guard it, vehicles to move it... On the other hand, Harry has a lot of resources that haven't even been mentioned yet. There's a house in Godricks hollow for example, and the Granger's would probably be willing to contribute. He hasn't even really made an accurate count of his vault. He described the stacks as a rough pyramid, but then estimates they're 20 wide and 60 tall - so in other words, each step of the pyramid is only three coins high. I made a small model out of poker chips, and it looks more like a flat than a stack. If it were a normal author, I'd figure the description was bad and the "estimate" was spot on, but EY is smart enough to realize that estimates aren't that accurate. Harry might have underestimated and already have 100,000. Of course, he might have over estimated instead. Maybe he should learn a magical counting spell.

7buybuydandavis13y

A good chance they could pay off the entire debt. They seemed very well off. I've got a friend who is a dentist. He could pay it off if he wanted to. 2 dentists? If they had decent business sense, it wouldn't be a problem. This is in the US, however. I'd guess that pay scales are different in Britain.

1Normal_Anomaly13y

I think you may be thinking of 100,000 dollars or pounds. 100,000 galleons is 2 million pounds.

[-]buybuydandavis13y100

And he still owes 60,000 galleons, which is 1.2mil.

A pair of dentists with over a decade of practice? My friend with 15 years of practice by himself could handle that. It's not pocket change, but this was to avoid the torture execution of their daughter. I think they could pony up for that.

9Exotria13y

This has its own problems, though. The Grangers were concerned enough when it seemed Harry might be dangerous, since he was temperamental at their house. They'd pull Hermione out of the wizarding world if they knew that she nearly got locked in a place that actively sucks away happiness.

7buybuydandavis13y

First, I don't know whether it's an option to bail out of the wizarding world at this point. She has a blood debt to Malfoy which has yet to be paid off by Harry. I'm sure Harry would be fine with whatever she chose to do, but I don't know that the wizarding world is going to let her walk, at least until the debt is paid. And she better hide very well is she does walk, because Malfoy wants her dead. The only protection she has from that is the wizarding world. Second, if a boy saves your daughter from a torture execution, throwing away his fortune, and going into hock for a fortune besides, you might feel obligated to pay down that debt, and even repay him his lost fortune, regardless of your choices about being a part of the wizarding world.

1bogdanb13y

Besides what dandavis says, even in canon Hermione memory-charmed her parents.

3drethelin13y

As far as transporting, Harry has a magical chest that contains entire rooms and can walk on its own. Dumbledore, Quirrel, or any bribeable adult wizard can teleport him to gringotts or to any muggle bank or jeweler he would like to go to, and there are definitely spells for swiftly transporting items across a room or whatever. I think by far a bigger problem would be getting any muggle bank to accept 17 tons of silver in a single transaction without any sort of possible background checks.

0ygert12y

Luckily, there are magical methods. Confundus charm, say, or the Imperius curse. (Yes, that does have the downside of being unethical, so Harry probably would not do it.)

3Jonathan_Elmer13y

Why not just chose a muggle institution that has a lot of gold and is corrupt enough you don't mind stealing from(shouldn't be hard) and walk in under the cloak of invisibility, alohomora the locks and fill up the bag of holding with gold? I agree that sounds too easy to not already have been done though.

3MinibearRex13y

I think this one would fall under the jurisdiction of the DMLE. In Canon, there were a few scenes with Arthur Weasley in which he discussed criminal cases involving wizards using magical powers against muggles.

2GLaDOS13y

"I wonder who came up with the idea of suspending liquid latinum inside worthless bits of gold. "

1RobertLumley13y

Hm. What if there is an enchantment on all galleons that prevents them from being melted down? Or better yet, just prevents muggles from seeing them? That would solve a lot of these problems, and still would not violate what Griphook said. I can't think of anything in cannon or in HPMOR that contradicts this. But I could be forgetting.

6AspiringKnitter13y

I can't think of anything in MoR that contradicts it, but in canon, when a wizard tries to pay a muggle, the muggle later comments about someone trying to pay with a bizarre kind of coin. IIRC, it's in Goblet of Fire, and it's the muggle who runs the campground where they're having the World Cup. He got memory-charmed afterward. So he definitely saw some kind of wizard money.

2billybobfred13y

Page 77 in my copy of GoF. So, yes, Muggles can see Wizard money, at least in canon.

0dspeyer13y

Apparently confirmed by Dumbledore's dilemma in Chapter 82. And we're pretty sure that Dumbledore is smart and had access to a time turner. Perhaps the simplest answer is that there's no easy way to move large amounts of money from the muggle to magical world. Is it really possible to buy 17 tonnes of silver without attracting a ton of attention from governments? On the other hand, if the real criminal is found before the debt comes due, it's presumably a non-issue.

2pedanterrific13y

The more I think about this the stranger it seems. The war chest was five million pounds? Apparently Dumbledore doesn't have any rich Muggle friends who'd be willing to spot him a loan on that whole 'saving all Britain from a super-powered psychopath' thing. It's not like the DMLE is all-powerful or anything, Moody thinks that the Eye of Vance was "currently in the possession of a powerful Dark Wizard ruling over some tiny forgotten hellhole that wasn't in Britain or anywhere else he'd have to worry about silly rules." What's stopping any enterprising wizard from knocking over an African diamond mine? And while yes, Harry's debt is almost certainly going to be made irrelevant long before it comes due, the fact remains that one of the most powerful wizards in the world considered five million pounds to be really serious money. I'm kind of interested if (how) the story will address each and every possible moneymaking scheme and present reasons why Dumbledore couldn't do them.

1Sheaman377313y

Just because the debt could be made irrelevant long before it's due--not to mention long after the story is set to be finished--doesn't mean the "certain rights [that Malfoy has] over [Harry] before then" won't be a major factor in the story.

[-]Alicorn13y400

people who don't bother to create their own universes are statistically going to be less-motivated, less-experienced, and/or less-competent authors.

Do you have this opinion of realistic fiction too?

[-]Eliezer Yudkowsky13y190

I have always thought that but the story makes the point even better. Click on that link, everyone.

[-]Alicorn13y110

Uh, wow, I have linked this story on LW before, but your endorsement apparently makes a great big screaming difference to how much traffic a link gets.

Please endorse more of my things. I am addicted to web hits.

4Alsadius13y

No, it mostly suffers from the problem that the people who write it are trying to create Art, and that never ends well. Or, to answer the question you're actually asking, I'm arguing probabilities, not absolutes. Good fanfic exists - hell, we're on a thread to debate a fic sufficiently good that it caused me to read the original Potter books(seriously, the number of references in those first 30 chapters I missed the first time is kind of staggering). But it is not the majority.

1Blueberry13y

Yeah I love that story.

4Alsadius13y

Really? Seemed rather preachy to me. I got the point within a couple paragraphs, and got bored.

4Eliezer Yudkowsky13y

Could've been shortened with further editing (I think) but there was more than one point in it.

[-]Spurlock13y280

If you're Lucius at this point, how the hell do you now update your "Harry is Voldie" hypothesis?

On the one one hand, he just paid 100K galleons to save a mud blood girl. On the other hand, he spooked a dementor. On the other other hand, while that feat may be impressive, it's certainly not anything the Dark Lord had been known to do previously. And is he consprasizing with Dumbledore, or against him?

Probably a very confusing time to be the Lord of Malfoy.

[-]Lavode13y280

It makes a great deal of sense as a purely political ploy. Harry just greatly strengthened the legend of the boy who lived, and since that is the result, Lucius is likely to suspect that it was also the intent.

[-]erratio13y180

That mudblood girl is also the most talented witch of her generation. Maybe Harrymort just wants another Bellatrix and this is the first step towards it. Maybe the debt doesn't matter because Britain is going to be at war / Lucius will be dead before Harry would graduate. Also, Harry just gained a sworn minion out of it, which is arguably a lot more useful than a large sum of money.

[-]FiftyTwo13y130

Confirmation bias remains and this is Lucius who whatever his cunning isn't a rationalist. So he's more likely to be thinking "Why did Voldemort save the mudblood girl?" than consider that he was wrong thinking Harry was Voldemort.

8hairyfigment13y

If Harrymort regains 'his' former power, he'll have the use of all House Malfoy's wealth. But Lucius still doesn't know what the Dark Lord wants with Hermione Granger.

4ajuc13y

Great point. If Harry is Voldemort, Voldemort will keep Harry money because Lucius have them. If Harry is not Voldemort, Voldemort will earn Harry money, because Lucius have them now. Win-win once again. Lucius is a competent player, and Harry is underestimating him.

0[anonymous]13y

Where is Lucius thinking Harry is Voldamort coming from? I've heard this being discussed as cannon, but I didn't pick it up from the story. Was it in the author's notes somewhere, or did I simply miss something?

2jaimeastorga200013y

It's implied in Ch. 38 and all subsequent Lucius/Harry interactions. Specially relevant is the ironic "I prefer to deal with the part of House Malfoy that's my own age", which Lucius understands in a completely different way than Harry intends.

[-]tadrinth13y270

I'm not sure if anyone has commented on this, but I just noticed it while rereading the Self-Actualization chapters:

Hermione went to tremendous lengths to be her own person rather than just something of Harry's, including becoming a general and fighting bullies. Now she has sworn herself into Harry's service and house forever. That is really sad.

1TuviaDulin13y

That's only a legal formality, though. Harry hates the wizard society and wouldn't use its laws against her, and he'd discourage others from acknowledging it. Still, Hermione (unlike Harry) cares what others think of her, so being surrounded by people who act as if she belongs to Harry is going to hurt her.

3Eugine_Nier13y

He's just (ab)used the laws of wizarding society to get Hermione out. I can certainly imagine him using his position over her if it is useful for solving the next crisis he has to deal with. Also, Harry has a dark side, it might also do things.

2GeorgieChaos12y

The laws of Wizarding society are, broadly speaking, insane. There is a vast gulf between twisting or breaking a rule that makes no sense and violating the trust of a friend like Hermione.

[-]ArisKatsaris13y270

Sounded like marriage vows to me,

Can you please reread them instead of just going by memory? Here, I'll make it easy for you:

"Upon my life and magic, I swear service to the House of Potter, to obey its Master or Mistress, and stand at their right hand, and fight at their command, and follow where they go, until the day I die"

"I, Harry, heir and last scion of the Potters, accept your service, until the end of the world and its magic"

Now, please actually read the above sentences again, and tell me now whether they sound like marriage vows to you?

And if you still think they've gotten married, in short if you're arguing that P(they've gotten married)> 50%, then I'll put my money where my mouth is and bet you they haven't. I'll bet 10 of my dollars for every 1 of yours, up to a maximum of $10,000 of mine. That should be an easy way for you to make some money.

7lavalamp13y

Well, after yesterday, I certainly won't be betting against you, even though my odds are (slightly) lower. My reading is that Harry intended to get married, because that's the only applicable law he knew of-- but McGonagall figured out what he was about to attempt and instead triggered some sort of fealty or adoption law. But I don't think it's totally inconceivable that the wizarding world has marriage vows that sound like that.

[-]ArisKatsaris13y120

My reading is that Harry intended to get married, because that's the only applicable law he knew of-- but McGonagall figured out what he was about to attempt and instead triggered some sort of fealty or adoption law.

Agreed mostly, but I don't think McGonagall figured out that he was about to propose marriage to Hermione. She just came up independently with the idea of inducting Hermione into House Potter; and of course she preferred to use a more age-appropriate (and less emotionally-charged) path than marriage. The alternate option of service, which Harry didn't even know existed.

6lavalamp13y

I'm not sure how good McGonagall's model of Harry is, so maybe you're right, and she didn't figure out what he was planning. Hm. In my model of the wizard world, what McGonagall did was a totally obvious solution to every wizard in the room except Harry; everyone in the room not on Malfoy's side probably even came in expecting Lucius to extract this fealty vow or something similar from Hermione before Azkaban was mentioned-- it should have been fresh in their minds. So I kinda feel like Lucius must have picked up the idiot ball to utter this. I can't explain why he didn't think of the obvious counter (was he so fixated on Azkaban that the fealty thing never occurred to him this whole time?). Unless he was trying to get Hermione joined to House Potter, but that seems really unlikely. Perhaps he didn't think there was any way he could lose to an 11 year old and thus didn't try hard enough.

6Eliezer Yudkowsky13y

I assumed the vow was obscure, ancient, Almost Never Done in modern times for good reasons (consider the content!), and that Lucius just wouldn't have imagined his model of Harry doing that with a mudblood girl. Would've been fun to see Lucius's expression if Harry had actually proposed marriage, but that wouldn't have fit quite as well.

2lavalamp13y

Ah, that makes sense. I forgot that Lucius thinks he's dealing with Harrymort (and expects him to have a pureblood bias). Hm, that implies that Lucius didn't use Veritaserum on Draco after all (or he's really blinded by his bias). Well, either way I imagine Lucius is extremely confused right now...

0thomblake13y

Oddly, people seem to be assuming that "Lucius used Veritaserum on Draco" means "Lucius knows everything Draco knows". Which wouldn't follow even if Draco was given 3 drops, let alone the 2 he actually got.

0lavalamp13y

I think that's a reasonable default scenario. Truth is entangled (and Draco/Harry/Hermione's dealings is more so than usual); I would expect that as soon as Lucius asked a question with an unusual answer, he'd keep asking questions until he figured out nearly all that Draco knew. If Lucius used Veritaserum and managed to not ask any such questions, then he might as well have not used Veritaserum at all...

0APMason13y

And I believe he was interrogated by aurors investigating this crime - in which Harry was not involved - not by Malfoy.

0pedanterrific13y

"What have you been intentionally hiding from me, in descending order of importance?"

2thomblake13y

That first, while Lucius was primarily concerned about Draco's safety and what happened that night? And it seems like a major breach of trust to ask that directly, which Draco will remember so that it will harm their bond permanently. Also, I wonder how long Draco would be able to ponder which thing is the most important before starting to answer. It might be a moot point, since I'm pretty sure Veritaserum tends to make people think out loud. "Well, I hide a lot of things from you intentionally. That's what you taught me after all. But which one is the most important? I'm not even sure how to rank things like this, so I suppose I'm solving a problem. Harry would say that in this sort of situation, one should hold off on proposing solutions. So let me think of the salient features of how to sort a list of secrets in order of importance..." (no effort on my part to make this in Draco's voice)

1pedanterrific13y

No, not that first. But I'd expect him to get around to it eventually. And it won't harm their bond if Draco doesn't remember it- the Hogwarts wards only protect students from being Obliviated while they're in Hogwarts.

0thomblake13y

I doubt that's true in the purely consequentialist sense, and I don't expect Lucius to think like a consequentialist. A major violation of trust from the person Draco cares about and respects most of all, seems like exactly the sort of damage that could survive Obliviation (as McGonagall hinted in Chapter 6). And my model of Lucius would not want to violate Draco's trust, even if Draco couldn't remember it - he genuinely cares about being a good father to Draco. Old-fashioned nobles believe in virtue ethics, if any.

1pedanterrific13y

So, for what reason do you believe you have a better model of Lucius than Dumbledore does?

2thomblake13y

I don't. But I think I have a better model of what sorts of things Harry has been up to with Draco, than Dumbledore does. I think Dumbledore thinks that "whatever you have done with Draco" is one thing, and will be most salient to Draco. He's not expecting the Bayesian Conspiracy, and Draco's Patronus, and Harry's Patronus, and discovering that the blood purist hypothesis is false, and actually becoming friends with Hermione, and becoming pregnant with Harry's baby, and trying to reform Slytherin house, and so on...

1pedanterrific13y

So, if I'm understanding you correctly, you think that Lucius giving Draco Veritaserum is not in itself a violation of his trust? In the context of "assume Lucius will know" "he'll give him Veritaserum" the clear implication is that Lucius would use enough Veritaserum to make answering involuntary, which would seem a clear violation of trust to me.

1thomblake13y

Right, I assumed that the Veritaserum itself was just necessary as part of the legal process, for outside observers to make sure Draco isn't lying, and that instance is what they were talking about. Even in that context, "Tell me things you wouldn't want to tell me normally" is a violation of trust.

3pedanterrific13y

Okay, back up even further. You think that investigating Aurors will give a child victim Veritaserum and then leave him alone with someone else before it wears off? That's horrifying.

7thomblake13y

No, I thought that the investigating Aurors would not give a child Veritaserum without his legal guardian there, and thus Lucius would have access to whatever Draco said under Veritaserum. It occurs to me now that Lucius wouldn't be too prying in front of Aurors.

0Sheaman377312y

Why are you not assuming that Lucius could get his hands on Veritaserum himself and interrogate Draco later in private?

0thomblake12y

If we wanted to assume he would do that, we could assume that at any time - Harry should have been just as worried after the Christmas break.

1thomblake13y

On reflection, I do believe I have a better model of Lucius than Dumbledore does. I've read a lot of the same fanfic as the author has and I know a decent amount about the author's thought processes, neither of which is true of Dumbledore. And Dumbledore thinks of people in absolutes, and would probably think Lucius is incapable of honestly wanting to be a good father to Draco since he's "Dark".

0APMason13y

Did Eliezer say that Lucius interrogated Draco himself? I can't find it - I had assumed it was aurors, who in the course of investigating this particular crime would have no reason even to mention Harry's name.

0pedanterrific13y

I don't think so, no.

0APMason13y

Oh right. Slightly careless reading. Sorry about that.

2Percent_Carbon13y

It looks like readers didn't get this. They were overdosed on age-inappropriate romantic hopes or did not notice the gap between Harry's idea and MacGonagal's. Is this the sort of thing you respond to by changing the chapters that are already out? The whole service thing will probably be explained in the next chapter anyway, along with Lucius's "certain rights."

0thomblake13y

Waitwhat. I did not think anyone thought Harry was marrying McGonagall. Or am I missing something here?

3APMason13y

Marriage at eleven is inappropriate.

0thomblake13y

Aha. Missed the cultural context. Thanks!

0Percent_Carbon13y

Well, I mean that romance at eleven is inappropriate. I suggested marriage was seen because it would signal romance and signals of romance were desired because of hopes. But thank you, Perry. If you hadn't responded I would have answered the wrong question. I thought he misunderstood when I wrote about the gap between Harry's marriage idea and MacGonagal's fealty idea. And then maybe I would not have been clear enough again and there would have been more confusion and we might go on until one got fed up and both simply logged the other as 'dense' and left it at that.

3thomblake13y

Yeah, it would not have occurred to me that romance at age 11 is inappropriate, as I knew a lot of romantically-inclined people at age 11, and I tend to think of Wizarding Britain as a backwards, medieval society so "marriage at 11" doesn't ring any alarm bells. Plus, 11ish-year-old characters have already talked at length about romance in the story.

2wedrifid13y

Plus... polyjuice.

1Blueberry13y

And since we know no one has the idiot ball, that suggests that the fealty vow (or possibly wedding vow) to Harry was totally unexpected. My impression was that the Wizengamot was stunned by the events. Yes, they expected Lucius to extract something similar from Hermione. They weren't thinking of Lucius's debt to Harry, so until Harry mentioned it and stunned the room, McGonagall's actions wouldn't have occurred to them.

1Danylo13y

"to obey its Master or Mistress"

2pedanterrific13y

I don't think it's totally inconceivable that the wizarding world has marriage vows that sound like that.

1MartinB13y

It sounds more like a oath of obedience.

1pedanterrific13y

Yes. I agree. I was just saying that the gender-inclusive language specifically isn't a good reason to think that, given Wizarding Britain's displayed attitude toward homosexuality.

6ArisKatsaris13y

It's not the "gender inclusiveness" that's the problem, it's the vagueness. Harry is male, why not call him "Master" instead of "Master or Mistress"? It's because the oath is a fealty oath sworn to the House, and after Harry dies, the mastery of his house may pass to a daughter of his (which Hermione would then be still sworn to obey). Marital oaths are between specific people. In this case obedience was sworn to House Potter, and Harry accepted it as the heir and last scion of House Potter.

0pedanterrific13y

Yes. I agree.

5Blueberry13y

The problem is that I don't know enough about Magical Britain's culture and customs to make a good estimate. There's so much weird stuff going on there that there's not much that would surprise me. You are correct that taken completely out of context like that, they sound like service vows. And I'm biased because I want them to be marriage vows; after reading your posts I've updated in favor of service vows. I don't think P(marriage) > 50%. But you're offering me 10 against 1, and I am sure P(marriage) > 1/11. So I accept your bet. I'll put up $30 against your $300, to be judged either by an unambiguous statement in a future chapter of MoR, or by a comment on LW by Eliezer.

4ArisKatsaris13y

It's a deal on my part -- but I'll also understand/forgive/excuse you if you don't pay up, because I think Eliezer has effectively already confirmed my position in a comment, before I got to say "Deal".

2Blueberry13y

This one? It was posted after I said "I accept your bet," so I am honor-bound to pay up. But if you feel bad taking the money I can always donate to SIAI instead.

2ArisKatsaris13y

Yeah that was the comment I was talking about, and nah, I am okay with taking the money, if you also consider it fair enough. I'll PM you paypal detail. If paypal is not convenient for you, we'll figure some other way.

0Blueberry13y

Sent via paypal. Someone make more bets with me so I can come out ahead ;)

0Percent_Carbon13y

When you do that you are robbing Blueberry of a valuable and inexpensive learning experience.

2Alex_Altair13y

This blew my mind.

[-]gRR13y260

Hypothesis: the Source of Magic is an AI with the goal to work in the way (magical) people really believe it should work. Or maybe, to make the world work in the way (magical) people really believe it should work. The strength of belief appears to be important, so a strong belief can override weak ones. On the other hand, when something is already "generally known" to work in a certain way, this is a very strong belief.

Examples:

Broomsticks work by Aristotelian physics [because it was what people believed when the broomsticks were invented, and now people just know (=believe really strongly) that's how broomsticks should behave]
Spell names and laws [inventors create spells by finding sounds they believe should work. When spells become known, they stabilize in that form]
Potions Law
Ritual magic [people really believe in sacrifices and not getting something for nothing]
Ghosts (and afterlife?) [effects of religious beliefs]
Harry's partial transfiguration [very strong belief, finds a loophole to not be in conflict with existing strong beliefs of other people]

Magic doesn't make sense to Harry because it now reflects lots of ad hoc rules and beliefs accumulated in centuries. Wizards and witches believe them from childhood. [No wonder they are half-insane.]

Interestingly, this hypothesis implies that Dumbledore's narrative causality may actually work - people do believe in stories.

8Mass_Driver13y

Wow. That's just an absolutely fabulous theory. In one fell swoop, you explain why EY appeared to leave AI out of his largest story yet, plausibly account for a vast array of in-story phenomena, and rehabilitate a character (Dumbledore) who seems suspiciously irrational for someone who's supposed to have oodles of meaningful in-story-real-world accomplishments. The theory has falsifiable, concrete predictions -- for example, we should not expect the AI to care if Harry asks it really nicely to give everyone magic powers; nor should we expect magic to be able to do anything that a super-intelligent AI couldn't do (simulating cat-brains is AOK; uncomputably complicated time loops are not OK). The theory also seems to fit with Chapter 82's hint that people subsumed by pheonix fire are re-instantiated "instances" of a more general Fire. In other words, the AI can maybe call the "Harry" subroutine somewhere else if it wants. I'm in awe. One possible victory condition if the AI in fact is coded to enforce the beliefs of people with a particular genetic marker is for Harry to find a way to put that marker into most people / his friends using a retrovirus. Does anyone else find it in the least suspicious that Harry's father is an expert biochemist? So, have there been any fundamentally uncomputable events in the story so far? :-)

[-]brilee13y260

After this chapter, a lot of people are going to deduce that Harry was in fact the person who broke out Bellatrix. Including, probably Dumbledore.

Quirrell will likely be forced to show his hand when Dumbledore accuses him of having engineered the escape. Somehow, this turns into Quirrell leaving his post. End of story seems imminent :(

[-]Percent_Carbon13y180

No. Mind the Conservation of Detail.

Harry doesn't know that Dumbledore's patronus recognizes Harry's patronus. This is a trap EY has laid for Harry.

For no internal reasons, but for story reasons, Dumbledore will not figure out that Harry was in Axkaban until the next time both he and Harry have their patronuses up at the same time. It is set up to be a shocking reveal, maybe a cliffhanger.

1thelittledoctor13y

Yes, Dumbledore's icy glare at the end seems to imply that he figured it out.

[-]Anubhav13y210

Or just that he's pissed with Harry for putting himself in Malfoy's debt.

Or for painting a giant bulls-eye on himself.

The icy glare could really mean anything.

2FiftyTwo13y

OR for doing a stupidly flashy solution when an easier one was available, which he will now berate harry about in the next chapter....

[-]Vaniver13y250

Harry Potter is not so clever, part 2. (Perhaps I should call this "advice for Harry," to be less negative.)

"I accept your offer," said Harry's lips, without any hesitation, without any decision having been made; just as if the internal debate had been pretense and illusion, the true controller of the voice having been no part of it. "I should have the whole amount ready by the end of the month." It would take his arbitrage trick, but certainly the Headmaster would let him do that instead of going into debt to Malfoy.
Lucius Malfoy stood motionless, frowning down at Harry. "Who is she to you, then? What is she to you, that you would pay so much to keep her from harm?"
"My friend," the boy said quietly. "As is your son- I would have fought as hard and paid as much to keep him from Azkaban."
"Save it," Harry suggested.
"Let us all go home, indeed." His blue eyes were locked on Harry, as hard as sapphires.
Harry looked further up.
"This is how far I go for my friends, Lord Malfoy. And now that Hermione is safe, I would like your permission to visit Draco. "

Overall: what the heck is Harry's model of... (read more)

[-]Alsadius13y240

Harry may be an overachiever, but he's still 11 - he's allowed to be bad at manipulating people. He's still at the "All I have to do is out-clever everyone and I can take over the world" stage. He has the tools to pull it off much of the time, but he still thinks of his opponents as pieces, not as players, which is a pretty serious hole in his worldview when it comes to things like manipulating Lucius Malfoy.

[-]Viliam_Bur13y100

"I should have the whole amount ready by the end of the month." It would take his arbitrage trick, but certainly the Headmaster would let him do that instead of going into debt to Malfoy.

Even if he does his arbitrage trick, what benefit would he get from telling it to Malfoy in advance. Why share unnecessary information with a potential adversary? Why risk additional penalties if something unexpected happens and the arbitrage takes five weeks instead of four?

2Vaniver13y

The point there was to avoid the "I can't let you do that, Harry" by making it obvious to Dumbledore (who knows Harry's current wealth) that Harry has a trick up his sleeve. Mentioning the arbitrage trick in public would be a terrible decision, which is why Harry just thinks that.

9kilobug13y

I'm doubtful about the arbitrage trick to really work that smoothly - goblins will get suspicious quickly, and it'll probably be seen as a threat to the Statute of Secrecy and would lead to legal troubles from the wizarding side. It would have to be done slowly and quietly to go on, not to be rushed in a few months.

7Vaniver13y

Also problematic is that the Wizarding world undervalues Galleons and overvalues Sickles. If he can pay the debt in 1.7 million Sickles, then he's fine- but if he has to pay them in Galleons, and he just modified the Galleon-Sickle exchange rate to 50-1, then he's worse off. (He might have made enough from the arbitrage to pay back Malfoy, but maybe not.) Worst comes to worst, he asks Dumbledore to cure some rich muggles with cancer who are willing to pay. [edit]Remember, the trick only needs to work once. Take out 40k galleons, convert it to muggle gold (probably necessary, but maybe not), convert it to 50 times as much silver by weight, convert it to Sickles, and now he has (if they're the same weight coins) 2M Sickles, minus conversion losses. Hand off 1.7M of them to Lucius (or get them changed at Gringotts), and the debt is cleared. Now, Harry triples his money every time he does the trick- so he'll probably want to try it several times before losing a lot of his principal. But that's not a big issue.

[-]NihilCredo13y130

Worst comes to worst, he asks Dumbledore to cure some rich muggles with cancer who are willing to pay.

I think that the can of worms of why wizards don't immediately go cure world hunger etc. is best left to be opened near the end of the fic, if at all.

[-]Multiheaded13y160

Actually, there's a fairly complicated question of why don't we immediately go cure world hunger. I mean, the production and logistics aspects wouldn't be very difficult compared to what today's industry can output on an everyday basis. I guess that it's 80% pure irrationality and only 20% politics.

[-]Alsadius13y110

You mean IRL? It mostly boils down to "we've tried giving hungry people food, it doesn't work, and that's pretty much all the ideas we've got". It's a much messier problem than it seems at first glance, and it isn't all politics or insanity. To pick the most obvious, when you dump planes full of grain on the tarmac in Zimbabwe, what did you just do the finances of the local farmers who now need to compete with free? And what does that do to next year's crop?

4Eugine_Nier13y

I'd reverse those. (Although one could be considered a subset of the other.)

7loserthree13y

It's an interest-free loan. Unless the "certain rights" Lucius has over HJPEV until graduation are troublesome, it is in probably HJPEV's best interest to delay paying the loan back as long as possible. Or unless, I suppose, he expects significant deflation before graduation. I don't think any of the HJPEV's plans that we know of are likely to result in deflation, quite the opposite in fact.

9Vaniver13y

Dumbledore was willing to send Hermione to Azkaban to prevent Lucius from getting those rights (well, and the money). It seems likely to me that they're troublesome.

4TimS13y

Or that it doesn't fit Dumbledore's narrative.

3mjr13y

True as such. But storywise it would seem weird to leave this hanging. That's one reason why I'm already irrationally overinvested, I notice, in my theory that it'll get taken care of pretty much on the side by finding out the true culprit and thus cancelling the debt through the Wizengamot or, failing that, possibly through Draco. There are other options, of course. There have been good points about Dumbledore now having an interest to Make Money Fast for Harry, and about possible other people who might be willing to bankroll a business venture for the newly brightened legend. And, again storywise, I can see handling the "leave it hanging" option in a decent manner as well, if there's some closure about the relations of houses Potter and Malfoy (presumably with Lucius dead or imprisoned and stripped of his status).

1drethelin13y

This is only true if you assume harry won't have any other use for money for that whole time, which seems unlikely to me.

2loserthree13y

Either I misunderstand you or you have it exactly wrong. If HJPEV pays back the no-interest loan early, he has less money to spend in the meantime. If HJPEV pays back the no-interest loan at the latest possible time, he has plenty of money he can use to make more money, and to spend, in the meantime.

1drethelin13y

The way I imagine it working is that any money Harry might acquire is automatically spent on paying off his debt, but he doesn't get into trouble if this doesn't pay the debt until he turns 18. I don't think the situation where he makes plenty of money and does not pay off the loan will be allowed. So either Harry can not worry about the debt and pay it off eventually at the cost of not having any money til then, or pay it off sooner and then have free use of money.

0loserthree13y

I don't think we need to rely so much on your imagination. If a debt isn't due, it need not be paid on. There's nothing here that says he's required to pay anything else before he graduates. In fact, it's possible that the author meant us to understand that HJPEV didn't have to pay anything right now and that the whole hundred grand isn't due until graduation. But that would mean the author had been a bit sloppier than I'm fairly confident he is.

3bogdanb13y

Emphasis mine. I think (most of) whatever he has must be payed immediately, and the “due” part is only for the rest.

2wedrifid13y

Better than scaring him in a dark alley. At least he'll have time to think through his reaction. Far more important than not scaring Malfoy in public is not insulting him in public. Public scaring isn't too much of an issue unless the nature of the scare is also insulting.

6bogdanb13y

Also, he scared pretty much the entire Wizengamot (plus a Dementor!), not just Lucius. “I scared him, and people know why” is different than “I scared him, and people know it”. [ETA:] It’s no loss of face to be scared by someone who more or less scared everyone else.

4NancyLebovitz13y

I think that being pushed into showing fear is something like an insult, especially if anyone twits him about it.

4Alejandro113y

I read that at first as "if anybody tweets him about it" and spent some moments pondering the possibility of a magical Twitter (functioning by owl post, of course).

[-]pedanterrific13y210

So, Hooter?

[-]gwern13y250

So, new speculation: who are the sharp players in the Wizengamot who are drawing up lists on Harry?

They're not Lucius or Dumbledore, both of whom already know a great deal, and the former is too enraged to really be thinking beyond 'why did Voldemort just sacrifice all his wealth for a "friend"?'

I would be a little shocked if Umbridge was meant; she's so moronic in canon that even a MoR brain-upgrade still leaves her dim and bureaucratic, and she certainly doesn't match. And the powerful-wizard background is much more of a 'male' thing, to boot.

Mad-eye Moody could be expected to be making a list, but as far as I can tell he's not present and is remarkable enough that if he was, he would be mentioned. He's also apparently busy watching over & poisoning graves. In one chapter, Bones mentions he just retired, so he wouldn't be there in an Auror capacity. EDIT: Aftermath would seem to imply Moody was not there, because Harry didn't recognize the Moody in the Pensieve memory at all, despite him being quite striking.

Madam Bones seems too much on Dumbledore and Harry's side to be so suspicious, and not 'new' in any plot-meaningful sense. She's otherwise a decent enough candi... (read more)

9Desrtopa13y

Not just imply, I'm pretty sure that in the fourth book Dumbledore explicitly calls Bartemius Crouch "powerfully magical." The relevance of that may be limited if Eliezer hasn't read the book itself though.

[-]Eliezer Yudkowsky13y260

Well, he's certainly on the list now.

1gwern13y

D'oh!

8pedanterrific13y

Amelia Bones is Director of the DMLE, not Crouch.

6faul_sname13y

Moody saw it though. The Eye of Vance sees everything.

8pedanterrific13y

I don't think "The Eye of Vance saw the full globe of the world in every direction around him, no matter where it was pointing" necessarily means he can count the grains of rice in China without turning his head.

[-]faul_sname13y110

Not necessarily, but this does seem the sort of thing Moody would go out of his way to keep an eye (ha) on.

6Vaniver13y

Scrimgeour seems like a likely candidate for the strange male voice.

[-]DeevGrape13y240

Or, depending on how the interrogation went, ScrimQuirMort.

2gwern13y

Yes, Rufus is also good. He's not noble, but he is old, powerful, and apparently head of the Aurors, under Bones. And we just saw him on-screen for the first time ever, interrogating Quirrel - if the Ministry suspects him of being Dark (as how could they not, by this point?) it makes sense they'd interrogate him with one of their best hunters, who would be one of the people most likely to think about what they just saw. ('ScrimQuirMort' just gives me a headache.)

1Nominull13y

I think "the old wizard" was Dumbledore.

1gwern13y

Re-reading it more carefully, yeah. I thought he switched to Crouch and then back to Dumbledore in the pronouns, but guess not.

[-]Joshua Hobbes13y250

So how many other ex-death-eaters now officially owe House Potter? Surely they can pay him.

9SkyDK13y

It would be a bad use of political capital considering how easy he could gain money in other ways while keeping a majority(? - at least combined with some help from Dumbledore's side) vote on pretty much whatever issue up his sleeve...

3MarkusRamikin13y

Now that Harry's invoked the debt and alerted all ex-death-eaters, I imagine it will remain useful only until they figure out a way to nullify or lessen its importance. Like change the law or whatever, I don't know how they'd do it but I imagine they won't sit idly. So perhaps he should cash in while he still can.

7SkyDK13y

Highly unlikely: blood debts have probably been a significant political currency for a long time, and both due to institutional path-dependency and a lot of vested interests, I highly doubt that they'd change the importance of blood debts. Also: it seems like a lot of the justice system is built up around this concept. It would require a total overhaul of the justice system to deal with the blood debt. Otherwise they'd have to change the significance of being imperiuse'd which is also unlikely due to most of them otherwise being Azkaban(ne)d

[-]MarkusRamikin13y120

How about a concerted campaign to persuade the public to lessen the importance of that particular debt? Remind everyone that Harry was a baby at the time and couldn't have intended to defeat the Dark Lord, emphasise that it must have been some kind of freak accident, start spreading rumours with alternative explanations...

Anyway my point isn't about any single thing they could do; the point is that there are a lot of powerful and politically-skilled people who would very much want to do something, and I don't feel at all confident that we can assume they'll be unable to come up with anything now that the gambit is no longer a surprise one.

6SkyDK13y

You may very well be right. Due to free-riding and buck-passing I'd still expect a lot of them to do nothing. Recall also that they're all in internal power struggles over ink monopolies and what have you, plus Lucius lack of complete control has already been pointed out by Lucius. For all those who think the blood debt will hurt their rivals more than themselves there's good reason not to change the framing of the debt. Not to forget being the one to start this campaign will be both financially and politically costly. A beautiful collective action problem. Either way, we've too little insights into the political power balances to make qualified estimates about the "wall-paper's" reaction.

6Lavode13y

Harry probably wont call in any blood debts himself, but any former deatheathers with substantial spare coin will jump at the possibility to get out from under a debt to Harry by giving Lucius money, so that 60.000 might well be paid in full before he makes it back to hogwarts, let alone sets any money making schemes in progress.

3SkyDK13y

A possibility. Though for some of the lesser wealthy houses that is probably not the first option. For some a blood debt might also be a good way to join Harry's side if he seems to start winning. For the opposite reason a lot might do nothing because they expect Lucius to crush him before he makes claim to his debts. Free-riding and buck-passing are frequent solutions in the political game.

[-]buybuydandavis13y240

Ha!

Remember when H&C told Hermione that Harry would sacrifice her if she became inconvenient to his plans for global domination? Guess Hermione can tell him to kiss her ass on that one.

[-]Jonathan_Elmer13y220

I doubt she remembers any of that conversation.

0buybuydandavis13y

I hadn't thought of that. On the other hand, those statements seemed like manipulation to a purpose, and it's hard to see what's the point if you're going to wipe the memory of it away.

4Normal_Anomaly13y

She doesn't remember that iteration of the conversation. She remembers the last one (unless it was obliviated after the duel), which is the one where she was successfully manipulated.

6loserthree13y

He obliviated Blaise, he'll have obliviated Hermione.

2hairyfigment13y

Yes, technically it looks like he obliviated her much later -- after the final conversation led her to either curse Draco or think thoughts that made that story halfway plausible.

0bogdanb13y

She had three drops of Veritaserum, she would have mentioned that last iteration if she remembered it, but it’s apparent that her anger is not justified. So she was certainly obliviated before the interrogation.

3Jonathan_Elmer13y

I don't think the point of the groundhogs day attack was to find a convincing lie. I'm pretty sure the point was to identify a convincing memory. Once that was identified the entire conversation was oblivated and the false memory inserted.

[-]Nominull13y240

The next chapter is going to be horribly depressing, you know. Harry is going to have to have it explained to him why it's a bad idea to do things that are a bad idea. Otherwise this arc would have the wrong moral...

[-]see13y290

On the other hand, it's now in Dumbledore's interest to see Harry make a lot of money quickly in order to discharge the debt, which means he's far more likely to approve of things that otherwise would be considered unacceptable, like:

1) Tricks with the Time Turner involving lotteries, stock markets, and the like.
2) The gold/silver arbitrage idea.
3) Personal appearance fees and other financial trading on his fame as The Boy Who Lived.
4) Calling in debts owed by other Imperiused or supposedly-Imperiused victims of Voldemort.
5) Dumbledore himself using the Philosopher's/Sorcerer's Stone to make a lot of gold.

In short, a sixty thousand Galleon debt, while it feels huge, is not obviously a major obstacle given the number of possible solutions already implicitly presented in HPMoR, and it would almost seem a cheat for it to be one

That wiping out the debt easily might have its own negative consequences, on the other hand, is potentially interesting.

2Percent_Carbon13y

Making gold probably breaks the 'no counterfeit' rule as far as the goblins are concerned. Before it was edited out, there was a bit where a goblin was suspicious of this in an early chapter. It was silver, but still. Lucius has some kind of control over what Harry does because of the debt. That may limit some of these choices or just weaken them. Harry doesn't need to use the Time Tuner to make money on a stoke market. He just needs to open a stock market. But Dumbledore hasn't sacrificed his (twisted) ethics to suit his cause before. He is no more likely to do so now, just because it's convenient. This latest event is probably not strong enough to make him twist his ethics again, if you believe he twisted them in the past.

7Alsadius13y

But Dumbledore has given no sign that he finds it unethical to make money. All he's said was "You're not ready to play, I'm not going to give you the bankroll to upset the board". If the cash is going to something this concrete and hard to abuse, he'd likely allow it. I doubt he'd abet with a method as easy as the Philosopher's Stone, but he'd likely not stand in the way.

3Percent_Carbon13y

That is convincing and I'd change my post if this was that sort of place. Still, with more that six years before the debt comes due, Dumbldoe can say the same thing, "Not old enough."

2linkhyrule513y

And Harry can say, "Old enough to storm Azkaban. Old enough to get Lucius Malfoy to back down. Old enough to be deeply in debt."

6Percent_Carbon13y

That would be arguing that you should be allowed to do something because of all the things you were not successfully disallowed to do. It does not necessarily follow and probably does not Dumbledoredly follow.

2see13y

Of course, I could be wrong, but given that it was considered a legitimate source of "as much money and life as you could want" in canon, I'd expect HPMoR would be more explicit if it were considered illegitimate in HPMoR. Griphook's original reaction (which I have in a PDF I downloaded before the change) looked to me not like Griphook was wondering if Harry would be counterfeiting, and more like he thought Harry was planning to steal the Stone itself. (I assume it was edited out probably because the HP version of the stone, unlike the one in the AD&D DMGs, only makes metal into gold, and thus couldn't make silver.)

1Percent_Carbon13y

Would you please quote that passage here? I believe it was cut because it told Harry the Philosopher's Stone exists. Harry is interested in eternal life, so finding out about the Stone would cause a confrontation EY means to save for the end.

8see13y

While the current version says

0Percent_Carbon13y

Thank you. Based on canon, the Stone was being removed from the care of Griphook's organization at that time. It seems less likely he'd be concerned about theft and more likely he'd be concerned about what impact the Stone might have on his people. It's still a stab in the dark. But since pretty much the only thing we know about MoR!goblins is that they run 'banks' and they are in a constant state of war with counterfeiters, I think it's the best guess possible without diving out of MoR and into canon even more.

[-]linkhyrule513y100

Dunno about that. The debt will have concsequences, certainly, but Hermione is not in Azkaban.

[-]Nominull13y210

Yes, it's super sad to let a little girl be tortured to death. But there is a cost large enough that it is not worth paying to prevent it, even if the cost is only in terms of mere cash, political capital, personal reputation as not being more fearsome than Fear itself, keeping important military secrets for the coming war secret, and the enmity of those you failed to lose to. That's the meaning of the phrase "Taboo Tradeoffs", it's that stating you kept Hermione out of Azkaban is not enough justification.

Of course, if he had counted the cost, he would have been an awful hypocrite. Recall what he said after Hermione rescued him from the Dementor:

I'll say that no matter what it ends up costing you to have kissed me, don't ever doubt for a second that it was the right thing to do.

At least he's holding himself to the same standard, even if it's a bad one.

9Desrtopa13y

A lot of people would pay a lot of money for a reputation for being more fearsome than fear itself. Speaking entirely in terms of money, I think that this was probably a clear cut good idea, because in the long run, for Harry, money is likely not to be a limited resource in practical terms. Sure, millions of dollars worth of gold could theoretically be used to save a lot more people, but Harry doesn't have management of his account for the time being. By the time he's old enough to actually access his account at will, his debt to Lucius is likely to be a triviality, or already dispensed with.

5NihilCredo13y

The math here depends entirely on what the "certain rights" Lucius has over Harry are. Were the debt a purely financial issue, saving Hermione would be a no-brainer. Did those rights allow Lucius to realistically cripple Harry's efforts to fix the world, not saving Hermione would be a no-brainer. We still don't know, although the fact that Dumbledore ultimately went along with it suggests that it's closer to the former than the latter.

2faul_sname13y

The cost wouldn't be worth it, except that it may well allow Harry to amass wealth in excess of what he had before if he plays his cards right.

[-]75th13y230

I wish to register my alarm at this:

This was actually intended as a dry run for a later, serious “Solve this or the story ends sadly” puzzle

Given that he was "amazed" at our performance this time, presumably an equivalent performance would pass the future test — but even if that's true it doesn't comfort me much.

I humbly beg our author to consider simply withholding updates, rather than issuing an ultimatum that may result in us never getting the "true" ending. "I won't post any more chapters until you solve this," rather than "I'm going to torch the last few years of your life if you're not smart enough."

4AspiringKnitter13y

I agree, this is a bad idea. I didn't figure out the answer when it was just for fun; my performance will probably only get worse under stress (and there's not much farther to fall from "uh... well, maybe it has to do with destroying Dementors, I give up"). I know this shows no confidence in my own rationality, or that of the other readers, but can we please just have a normal story?

3James_Blair13y

There's nothing to worry about. We were presented with the same challenge in Three Worlds Collide. If we don't succeed, we will just get a false ending instead of a true ending.

[-]Xachariah13y170

A always thought the false ending was better.

What can I say? I'm a sucker for stories where everyone lives happily ever after. :-)

4Alex_Altair13y

I agree. The "false" ending definitely ranks higher in my CEV than the "true" ending.

375th13y

…did you mean "along with a true ending"? Because "instead of" is precisely what I fear, but your links seem to indicate that we might get both endings? I don't understand, and Three Worlds Collide predates my awareness of Less Wrong so I don't have firsthand knowledge of exactly how that went down.

4jaimeastorga200013y

I think he meant that in case of failure, the happy ending will simply become the "false ending" instead of the "true ending". Since we get both either way, there really isn't a difference.

375th13y

Gotcha. As long as we do get to read the full, complete, unbesmirched and unabridged "good" ending, I can live with that.

2James_Blair13y

Yes. The exact phrasing of the challenge was:

0James_Blair10y

So, after what happened.. turns out I was both wrong and right. So failure would have just meant the end, and yet there was nothing to worry about: the much larger audience managed to figure out a space of much more effective solutions, along with a much more hilarious space of failures.

[-]gjm13y220

There are reasons for avoiding being hit with an anti-polyjuice spell even if you aren't polyjuiced. (1) The spell would reveal that you aren't polyjuiced, which might be useful information for your adversaries if you're masquerading as someone else by other means. (2) If your policy is only to counter such spells when they would have revealed something, then your decision to counter or not is itself revealing. Better to have a general policy of not letting people probe you at all.

1[anonymous]13y

(2) is actually counter-productive. Your policy of countering anti-polyjuice spells is associated with your appearance. If you are known to counter such spells, then an adversary polyjuiced as you will have an easier time of getting away with it. But if you act like a normal person, then someone with your appearance countering such a spell would seem suspicious indeed. In Quirrell's case, however, Scrimgeour is already fairly certain that Quirrell is actually someone else. Polyjuice is the easiest explanation, and if it were rejected then Scrimgeour would simply try alternatives (e.g. check if Quirrell is a Metamorphmagus). Also, the paragraph above assumes the existence of allies. Quirrell would rather minimize the information anyone has about him, as a matter of course.

2MartinB13y

Regarding polyjuice. Keep in mind that Quirrell had to spend a while in the hospital wing in bed. He probably would not have had access to his juice. In HP4 you see how often someone polyjuiced has to refill - it is basically all the time.

2[anonymous]13y

Right. We, the readers, know that Quirrell is not polyjuiced. But Scrimgeour doesn't.

1MartinB13y

I found it weird that he only tried once, and basically ignored Qs counter to the test.

2Benquo13y

He is afraid to escalate.

5MartinB13y

Is he not the interrogator in a ministry holding cell? Oh boy.

4Benquo13y

And Quirrelmort seems to have wandlessly and effortlessly blocked his spell. That's pretty scary.

5MartinB13y

Well. But he is not supposed to give in. He has to get the next level of interrogators who can deal with this. Imagine a real police person in a similar situation.

2loserthree13y

Imagine a real police officer dealing with someone who cannot be disarmed. Perhaps the magical world has a "cannot put Superman in jail" threshold. Under it, they tread lightly. Over it, they pull out all the stops and doing whatever they're doing to Grindelwald.

0[anonymous]13y

That was more than twenty-four hours ago, you know.

[-]ArisKatsaris13y220

You misread the passage. McGonaggal helped Harry take Hermione into the sworn service of House Potter. A very feudal type of thing, but certainly no marriage.

[-]pedanterrific13y220

Lucius Malfoy's eyes narrowed. "By the report I received, you cannot cast the Patronus Charm, and Dumbledore knows this. The power of a single Dementor nearly killed you. You would not dare venture near Azkaban in your own person -"

Has Lucius not spoken to Draco in private yet?

If he hasn't... when he does, and tells Draco what happened at the trial, and finds that Draco isn't surprised (or at least, not more than usual when it comes to Harry)... what will he think then?

[-]alex_zag_al13y160

Even if he knew, saying that would be a good way to try to get Harry to reveal something. What he would have heard from Draco is that Harry has a super-bright Patronus whose form he keeps secret; he would be curious. So I don't think this quote is strong evidence that Lucius hasn't heard about the Patronus from Draco, since it is pretty likely that he would say something like this even if he has.

EDIT: Actually, since he believes Harry is Voldemort, he probably thinks the Patronus light he showed Draco was an illusion, and not useful for getting out of Azkaban at all. If he thinks Harry is Voldemort he's unlikely, then, to pry for information about it in this way.

7Alsadius13y

I expect the amount of time he had was not sufficient for a full report on everything Draco knows of Harry. Perhaps the Patronuses didn't come up? Seems an odd omission, but not an impossible one.

[-]pedanterrific13y240

Lucius didn't ask if Harry could cast a Patronus, I could buy that. But Draco's Patronus didn't come up? Harry's vow of vengeance against Narcissa's killer didn't come up? That whole thing was possibly the single most important interaction Draco and Harry have had, next to when Harry tricked Draco into sacrificing his belief in blood purity.

2Rejoyce13y

I thought Draco promised Harry that Draco wouldn't tell Lucius about their interactions. Several times.

8pedanterrific13y

I wasn't aware that Draco was an Occlumens. (If he can't beat Veritaserum, those promises mean precisely nothing.)

[-]Rejoyce13y150

Draco's a manipulative little snake. Lucius never probably never asked, "Son, are you able to cast the Patronus Charm?" because he was probably under the impression that Slytherins weren't able to cast Patronuses so why bother asking. Hence, the topic never came up. Draco's a scientist now, he doesn't completely believe everything that Lucius says anymore. Draco's probably avoiding talking about dangerous subjects with his father. And of course, he could always lie.

9Alsadius13y

Actually, he couldn't lie - he was interrogated under Veritaserum. That doesn't mean that the topic came up, of course.

[-]ajuc13y100

If regular courts had veritaserum, I imagine the first question they'd ask would be "What are the things you don't want to tell us?".

7GeeJo13y

But that is such a vague question. I could go on for hours about entirely irrelevant observations I wouldn't want to get out in public - how I feel about people at work, how much I enjoy certain bodily functions, sexual kinks. Nothing I'd want to tell them, but stuff I would objectively prefer for them to know than that I'd committed a heinous murder.

7ajuc13y

Yeah, phrasing it right wouldn't be trivial, but much easier than making wishes for UFAI, because Veritaserum is the equivalent of perfect box for AI, and Draco is human, so most of the definitions and assumptions he shares with the judges. So maybe: "Tell me the things, you think I would want to know about, according to the best model of me you can construct."

9wedrifid13y

Except if I'm an AI in a perfect box I can't do as I please and destroy everything but if I'm a free agent drugged with veritaserum I can but I'm completely honest and forthcoming about it. As in: [Harry is under the influence of a truth serum] Samir: Is there anything you'd like to tell me before we start? Harry: Yeah. I'm going to kill you pretty soon. Samir: I see. How, exactly? Harry: First I'm going to use you as a human shield. Then I'm going to kill this guard over here with the Patterson trocar on the table. And then I was thinking about breaking your neck. Samir: And what makes you think you can do all that? Harry: You know my handcuffs? Samir: Mmm-hmm. Harry: [holds up his hands] I picked them. [Samir gasps. Harry springs up from his chair and grabs Samir, using him as a shield while he kills the guard, then breaks Samir's neck] And... Ok, that name collision just completely changed the way I visualize MoR!Harry.

5loserthree13y

Someone will want to know that you're quoting True Lies. Someone else, I suppose.

1Alsadius13y

That's the sort of sentence that'd cause most people who don't post at LW to look at you funny. It's sort of impressive how much we seem to have forked English.

3TheOtherDave13y

It's been my experience that simply being the sort of person who would choose to post at LW given the option is sufficient to cause most people who wouldn't to look at one funny.

2wedrifid13y

They would look at us even more funny when the people who post even more at LW instantly reply "NO! Give that as a command to any sufficiently intelligent agent and everything is lost!" And Draco is across that threshold now that he has spent time with Harry. Even comparatively weak genies are dangerous if you give them orders.

0MugaSofer12y

How so?

2wedrifid12y

The genie was given the command requiring the creation of the best that they can construct without even any time or resource limitations. If the instruction is obeyed successfully then everything (except the immediate physical form of the speaker) is converted to computronium.

0MugaSofer12y

Draco would take into account his father's wish for life as we know it to continue and lacks the resources to transform anything into computronium. Talking to Harry does not transform one into a genie.

0wedrifid12y

He can do that, to the extent that he is able to ignore the influence of the drug. (ie. You are just denying the counterfactual.) No he doesn't. It would be hard and potentially take years. He could also be stopped by force by others or killed while making the attempt. He certainly has the resources available though and to the extent that the mind control magic is assumed to work he has perfect, concentrated motivation. Not assumed and not required. He just needs to be a vaguely competent intelligent agent (although the fact that he is already a gifted, machiavellian wizard also helps). The rest came in the ridiculously careless question given under the power of potent mind control magic.

0MugaSofer12y

Ah, I think I see the problem. IIRC, veritaserum forces Draco to be truthful, not to obey any given commands. Presumably if he was under such control (have we seen how the imperius curse works in the MORverse?) then he would indeed attempt to augment his own ability to perform the task, using whatever means available, and his conversations with Harry might indeed have suggested the possibility of computronium to him. That said, he might seek a faster method if one was available, since time is almost certainly limited - whether by the limits of the spell (most spells wear off with time, it is likely his friends and allies would attempt to cure him, and he has a limited lifespan assuming he does not anticipate immortality.)

3kilobug13y

Was Draco under Veritaserum when he spoke privately with Lucius, or only when he was interrogated by the Aurors ? We don't know how long Veritaserum lasts, nor how much time elapsed between the two.

[-]linkhyrule513y110

Nevertheless, I believe it was two drops used, not three - so Draco didn't have to volunteer information.

1loserthree13y

It doesn't have to be about Draco's status as a scientist. We know from the text that he is very afraid of disappointing his father. That could be enough to keep him quiet until he's asked about anything it might possibly pertain to. Then he's forced by the drops.

3smk13y

My speculations were: Maybe Lucius decided to let Draco keep some privacy. Or he just hasn't gotten around to fully questioning him under veritaserum yet. Or he's pretending that he doesn't know that Harry has a Patronus. Or someone obliviated Draco of this information before Draco was returned to his father. Or Draco is secretly an occlumens and he just pretended to let the veritaserum work on him. I don't think Draco is an occlumens. I also don't think Lucius is such a nice dad that he would respect Draco's privacy after Draco was nearly killed. I suppose he might not have had the chance yet, but if I was Lucius I would have tried really hard to get the chance to question Draco in detail before the trial. Unless Lucius was overconfident of his influence with the Wizengamot?

8loserthree13y

Draco knows that HJPEV claims to be able to Patronus. Draco knows that HJPEV presented himself as though he needed to hide his Patronus. Lucius knows that the 'light' side regards the ability to Patronus as a 'light' qualifier. If Lucius also knows what Draco knows, then he would know that inviting HJPEV to Patronus would probably result in one of two things: either he learns something HJPEV may believe to be a valuable secret, or he casts doubt on HJPEV's 'light' side qualities. it's win-win, just like you know he likes it.

1buybuydandavis13y

Yeah, Draco has been missing for a while. EY moved through this very fast. There's been a murder attempt on Draco, and a trial about it, and I don't remember seeing Draco since he was plotting to challenge Hermione.

3Blueberry13y

He's probably still healing.

[-]FAWS13y210

Why does Dumbledore not give a quick Summary of the worst consequences of being in debt to Lucius Malfoy? It's hard to see how that could necessitate telling secrets that cannot be revealed in public, the laws involved should already be known. Naming a few of the "certain rights" Lucius would have shouldn't take more time than Dumbledore actually spends trying to convince Harry.

9Anubhav13y

For that matter, why didn't Dumbledore mention the Imperius debt when they were talking about debts? Dumbledore's being awfully incompetent... Wonder why that would be.

[-]Alsadius13y300

I suspect that everyone discounts the "I was Imperiused!" claim for being an obvious lie, and thus discounts the implications of it being officially true. It's certainly a plausible hole in worldview - ignoring the implications of a false statement being "true" is an easy mistake to make.

8Desrtopa13y

It seems like a pretty glaring one to me; I argued in the tvtropes discussion thread that I didn't think this solution was going to be implemented, because I found it hard to believe that Dumbledore wouldn't have thought of it. It was actually the first thing that came to my mind when I was reading chapter 80, and trying to think of holds Harry had on Lucius; when you know someone's been lying, catching them out in the consequences of it is one of the handiest ways to gain advantage over them. By the time I finished the chapter, I had already dismissed it on the grounds that if Dumbledore, who's been maneuvering against Lucius in the realm of politics for over a decade, hadn't suggested it, there was probably some reason why it wouldn't work. The fact that he would let such a clear opportunity to use his opponent's deceptions against him slip has forced me to revise my estimate of his cunning considerably downwards.

[-]Logos0113y150

Dumbledore may simply not have considered Hermione WORTH the debt.

1Desrtopa13y

That seems rather more cynical than I'd expect from a Gryffindor with a phoenix riding around on his shoulder.

0Nornagest13y

Do we actually know that Dumbledore came out of Gryffindor in the MoRverse? He did in canon, and he certainly talks a good game, but neither one's necessarily decisive in this context.

6see13y

Chapter 27:

0Desrtopa13y

I think it's been mentioned a few times, but I can't remember a specific citation off the top of my head.

0hairyfigment13y

Interesting. I'd thought this chapter gave us evidence of Snape being evil, because a greater-than-or-equal-to-double agent should think immediately of disguises that need to seem real. And if we assume he's not evil then he probably sympathizes with Hermione's anti-bullying campaign. But he might not go against Dumbledore if DD didn't want to use the debt. (Still seems slightly sinister that he didn't tell Harry secretly. But not much, given their history and the likelihood Harry would think of it anyway.)

0Logos0113y

Wait -- where does Snape, of all people, come into this discussion?

0hairyfigment13y

Eh? Snape was there when they discussed a possible exchange of debts. I was saying that I'd expect him to think of the solution even if Dumbledore did not.

[-]kilobug13y180

I think Dumbledore is more into the "general wanting to win a war" mindset. In that mindset, you don't spend a trump card like a blood debt from one major enemy just to save one life. So he shouldn't (in his pov) speak about that issue to Harry.

2Desrtopa13y

I think this would be a more meaningful consideration if he had much reason to expect he'd be able to control how Harry would cash in that debt, and by the time it came up I think his acquaintance with Harry should have largely disabused him of that.

1Normal_Anomaly13y

He has shown to be a slow learner with respect to his ability to control Harry. In the last chapter, in fact, when he tries to stop Harry from accepting the debt. This slow learning is to be expected, because he's been able to control every other rebellious child he's had to deal with in N years of being headmaster, plus most of his political opponents, etc. And he believes that of course the Hero will listen to the guidance of the Wise Old Mentor.

6pjeby13y

I think it hasn't sunk in yet that he's not Harry's mentor; Quirrel is.

3mjr13y

At this point Harry is feeling pretty (over)confident in his ability to keep Lucius in check, so it's not a big deal to him. Witness his riddle.

2loserthree13y

I was going to say it sounds like a lien, but it turns out that word means something different outside the US. It sounds like a security interest.

[-]pedanterrific13y190

"I mean, suppose I came in here with a ton of silver. Could I get a ton of Sickles made from it?"

"For a fee, Mr. Potter-Evans-Verres." The goblin watched him with glittering eyes. "For a certain fee. [...]

"Give me a wild guess. I won't hold Gringotts to it."

"A twentieth part of the metal would well pay for the coining."

[-]bogdanb13y110

Also, IIRC McGonnagal was there, presumably she would have said something if Griphook was obviously lying or omitting something important, as suggested above. (Also, I got the impression goblins were really serious about money.)

[-][anonymous]13y170

Prophecy update!

Like most readers, I took Trelawney's magical clock for a listening device. What if it transmits instead of receives?

We've seen Dumbledore manipulating events into storylike patterns. He was the instigator of the three-way tie, and he precipitated Snape's fall and eventual redemption by the power of love.

In his Fortress of Regrets, Dumbledore gave the surface appearance of being terribly reluctant to allow his decisions to cause the deaths of others. But in the last chapter he was ready to let a small child be tortured to death - with much trembling reluctance, of course - in order to preserve his plans.

Could he have caused Trelawney to deliver the prophecy, triggering the other half of Snape's destiny, while feeding the Potters to Voldemort to create his orphan hero?

Dumbledore meant for Voldemort to have been killed by Lily's sacrifice. He believes it happened. Instead, Voldemort, taking the obvious trap (thanks Vladimir!) as a challenge to his wit (thanks Gwern!), pretended to lose (thanks buybuydandavis!), while fulfilling the letter of the prophecy in a manner maximally advantageous to himself.

He disarmed the trap by goading Lily into attacking him. He left a bu... (read more)

[-][anonymous]13y210

Oh hey. And we have a confession.

"I'm sorry to say, Harry, that I am responsible for virtually everything bad that has ever happened to you."

I actually noticed the dissonance when I read this, that Dumbledore had apparently overlooked the biggest and most obvious tragedy of Harry's life. But I didn't realize what it meant. Whoops.

8FAWS13y

And more significantly: There aren't really any other good candidates for what he might have done to cause this particular problem (even if he felt responsibility on account of e g. not having been able to beat Voldemort permanently himself it seems unlikely to phrase it like that).

0bogdanb13y

Well, he might just mean that he used the prophecy as a trap (by having Snape relate it to Voldie), not necessarily that he faked the prophecy itself.

9alex_zag_al13y

Unnecessary detail, may or may not be the case. If he was aware of the trap, it would not matter whether this disarmed it; he just needed to not cast Avada Kedavra on Harry. Harry's memory of the event does not end with Voldemort casting the Killing Curse on him.

2[anonymous]13y

You're right. I would go ahead and flag everything in that paragraph as questionable. The method of Quirrell's possession, for example: perhaps Voldemort erased his mind and is possessing him through an artifact. It wouldn't change the overall picture.

5alex_zag_al13y

Avada Kedavra leaves no mark, but getting killed by Lily's ritual sacrifice might. Even so, that the body was burned, which makes identification harder, is suggestive that it is not really Voldemort's.

9[anonymous]13y

Yeah, I'm less confident in the notion that Voldemort survived Godric's Hollow, and it's not integral to the hypothesis, but that's the obvious explanation for a burnt body, and the last few chapters have given me a new respect for obvious explanations.

5Eponymuse13y

It's also difficult to see why Voldemort would want to pretend to die at Godric's Hollow. He was winning the war. Why pretend to lose, throw away what he had built up to then, and try an entirely different approach to gaining power? I think the more obvious explanation for the burnt body is that whatever ritual magic protected Harry was very destructive to Voldemort. I think it is clear that some ritual magic is involved here; how else can we explain the danger of Harry's and Quirrell's magic interacting? And the violence of their magics' interaction in Azkaban makes it plausible that if Voldemort were to cast a killing curse directly at Harry, he might end up as a burnt corpse.

0[anonymous]13y

Tentative explanation: he was hedging his bets. If it's a trap, to walk into it would be stupid. If it's genuine, to ignore a warning like that would be stupid, too. He acted in a way that accommodated either possibility. I think the ritual he performed that night was copying himself into Harry (note to self: this may or may not be the same thing as horcruxing), and the resonance between their magics is a side effect of that. As to which explanation is more obvious, well, I don't think an argument from obviousness is valid in the face of a genuine disagreement, so I withdraw mine. It's reasonable, though.

1bogdanb13y

Also, if there was no one left alive except Harry, how did they know it was Avada Kedavra that rebounded from Harry, instead of some other spell? (When the Dementor attacks him, Harry sees the green flash and hears the words, but only when Voldie kills his parents, not when he’s attacked himself, as I recall.) They could have tried Legillimency on baby Harry, but nobody actually mentions that, and other than Moody it doesn’t seem like anyone would think of it.

1Eugine_Nier13y

Looking at the last spell cast by Voldemort's want.

0bogdanb13y

Of course, you’re right, I forgot you could do that. In MoR at least they should have thought of it, though they didn’t seem to try it on Hermione’s. Prior Incantato* doesn’t show who was target, though, and shows only the last spell IIRC, so it’d be easy to camouflage. I wonder if it “wandless” spells are still cast through the wand (just without holding it), or if they’re completely independent of it. (*Edit:) The first version of this comment mistakenly said Priori Incantatem, a different spell than the one I was actually describing.

1pedanterrific13y

Not only does it show who the target was, it summons a pseudo-ghost if the target was the victim of a Killing Curse. The one in canon showed at least the last four or five, I'm pretty sure. Edit: Whoops, sorry, didn't get the context. "Priori Incantatem" is the brother-wand effect, "Prior Incantato" is the analytical spell, which we know a lot less about- I don't believe there's evidence either way whether it's possible to use it to display the target or show multiple spells.

0bogdanb13y

I was right by accident. I was actually thinking of the Priori Incantato (the analytical one), which seems to behave how I described above. I didn’t remember the other one, but it just happens it doesn’t apply to the situation, since Harry didn’t have his wand yet. I’ll fix it above.

2pedanterrific13y

It's 'Prior (no i) Incantato'. The link in the great-grandparent is broken because you inserted an extra 'i'.

0bogdanb13y

Thank you!

2buybuydandavis13y

Ha! So Dumbledore inserts prophecy as a trap, and Voldemort plays along to set his own trap. Nice! One reason I like implanted prophecy theory is that it would play into rationalist biases against prophecy. I expect magic to be explained as commands to some AI in Atlantis. But prophecy? Seeing into the future? Messages from Atlantis? Maybe it's just my bias against backward in time causality, which he has really committed to anyway, with Comed-Tea. Me, I'd rather that prophecies are explainable by other means. But wouldn't this imply that Dumbledore doesn't really see Harry as the destined savior against Voldemort? Maybe he is just saving him to use as a trap again, unaware that Voldemort had already seen through the trap and was playing it for his own purposes? Yeah, saving him as a trap again makes sense, since the dark ritual should still be binding. As long as we're adding in people playing the prophecy, how about Lily and James? They could have been playing the honeypot knowingly, in league with Dumbledore. I'm reminded of Dumbledore bringing up Lily Potter as a heroine, and noticed the incongruity at the time, though I didn't notice my confusion, as it were. Now that I do, saying she was a heroine seems like she was promoted beyond her station, unless she played a knowing part in her sacrifice to attempt to bring down Voldemort. That would certainly qualify her for the ranks. One thing - a Voldemort plan to upload into Harry could be said to keep the terms of the dark ritual by allowing Harry to live on a permanent basis. And Harry as Dark Lord also satisfies those terms.

1bogdanb13y

I’m not sure I understand, what incongruity do you see there? IIRC, at least in MoR, the prophecy says something like “born to parents that have thrice defied him”, so James and Lily did take part in the war other than just trying to defend Harry when Voldemort came after him. (They had to have defied him three times so that he would know who the child is, assuming he went after him because of the prophecy.) That sounds kind of heroic even without them doing it just as a trap, given what used to happen to Voldie’s opposition.

2pedanterrific13y

McGonagall's description:

0bogdanb13y

Is this meant to explain the incongruity (if so, I still don’t get it), or to support that they were heroic (as McGonagall claims it)?

0pedanterrific13y

Support. It seems difficult to read that passage, then go on to see Dumbledore's naming Lily a heroine specifically as "promoting her beyond her station". Regardless of whether it's true or not, Lily = Hero is apparently the official Light-side position.

2buybuydandavis13y

Point in your favor - when discussing heroines during his time as Headmaster at Hogwarts with Hermione, he suggested she might add both Alice Longbottom and Lily Potter to the list. I'd count that as a point in favor of "thrice defying" as membership to the club. But still, does defying the Dark Lord thrice really put you in the top 3 witches of 40 years, and the top 15 or so witches and wizards? With all the people who died, with Dumbledore's room full of dead friends, there aren't others who had done more and risked more? Lily and James were in hiding. Are they really the best examples of heroes in the last 40 years - two people in hiding from Voldemort? Dumbledore: Hiding in Godric's Hollow sounds more like the former than the latter to me. Unfortunately, even in canon, "thrice defied" occurred offstage, so we don't know the details. Just to keep it clear, though, the prophecy occurred before the births of Neville and Harry, so well before the deaths of Alice and Lily, so whatever final defiances they had at their deaths are not part of the 3.

2bogdanb13y

Yeah, so I can’t quite contradict you. (Also, I haven’t read all books, and for those I read I wasn’t very careful with the details.) That said, my understanding was that first Lily and James fought Voldemort before they had Harry, and perhaps for a while afterwards. And presumably fought well, since they survived to do it thrice, and courageously, if they didn’t stop after the first time (which would qualify both as heroes). In contrast, the journalist mentioned at some point was killed, together with his entire family, after simply writing an article. He was possibly brave (or maybe just an optimist), but not quite heroic. (It’s not perfectly clear, but the wording of the prophecy seems to suggest that they defied V. thrice before H.’s birth, and possibly again afterwards.) My understanding was that they went into hiding after they learned that Voldie was going after Harry; presumably this was because of the prophecy, but it doesn’t mean they knew it was a trap (if it was). Note that in MoR Dumbledore says he taught Voldie & Co. not to go after families of the Order of the Phoenix just for blackmail—which obviously had to be before his death—which suggests that they went into hiding only because (and after) they knew Voldie had a better reason to go after Harry, the prophecy. But nothing (AFAIK) indicates that they’d be aware that it was a trap (if it was one). Also, going into hiding is not necessarily selfish or cowardly (i.e., wanting just to protect themselves and their son). If they knew and believed the prophecy they could just be trying to protect the future defeater of Voldie. Everyone was surprised at baby Harry (apparently) destroying Voldemort, including those that knew the prophecy, so their theory must have been that he’d defeat him after he grew up.

2buybuydandavis13y

But not what I'd call heroic, either. On the other hand, it would be definitely be heroic to set yourself up as bait for Voldemort on what was fully intended as a suicide mission. If we go with the theory that Dumbledore was setting a trap for Voldemort, based on a dark ritual, I would think it's rather important to make sure that Lily fulfills the dark ritual. IN fact, I think this theory requires that Lily and James are in on Dumbledore's plot, otherwise why not just apparate away? Have port keys set up? At least have Lily and James attack him together? The prior odds that Lily will just happen to fulfill the terms of a dark ritual seem miniscule, even if we assume that Voldemort had been prepped to give Lily a chance to live. If it was a plot by Dumbledore to have Lily perform a dark ritual, Dumbledore would tell her to increase the odds that she actually fulfills the ritual. Otherwise he's spending the lives of two members of the Order for a miniscule chance at killing Voldemort. IN fact, if Dumbledore is going to do this kind of plot, he'd want to set it up in advance with the people involved, not draft them after he got the ball rolling, so that he could arrange a proper prophecy.

2bogdanb13y

I’m not quite sure how you got to the dark ritual part. At least, I see no hint of this, nor any indication that Lily would go with it. Even if you’re going with the “love sacrifice as old magic” in canon and calling it “dark” just because it has a sacrifice, I’m not quite sure it would work if you did it with the explicit purpose of stopping Voldie (intent might taint the sacrifice). Dumbledore might create a situation where Lily would sacrifice herself for Harry, because Dumbledore intends to get rid of Voldie, but this (I think) requires that Lily not know about it, so that her intent is pure. Canon is careless enough with details to be hard to use for explanations. For example: It does sound weird, but then again if it were that easy even Voldie would have much more trouble killing people than it appears. http://harrypotter.wikia.com/ suggests that for side-along apparition (i.e., for taking someone with you who can’t do it themselves) the “passanger” needs to be a wizard, and might need to have a wand. So maybe they just couldn’t take Harry. Also, Voldie might just have a policy of casting Anti-disapparition jinxes when he attacks, it’s not clear how hard they are to make. Something like this might also explain why someone who’s hunted by Voldemort, even in hiding, doesn’t have with them a dozen intercontinental portkeys, just in case. (In MoR, at least. In canon they probably just didn’t think of it.) If he’s actually thinking in story terms rather than faking it, he’d likely think it almost certain rather than minuscule.

1pedanterrific13y

Why did you link there rather than here?

0bogdanb13y

Mental hiccup. It’s 2AM here :) By the way, there’s quite a bit lore on that site that would be quite interesting if we knew what parts of it applied to MoR, such as some info about Snape and Lily that don’t quite match what Snape says.

0buybuydandavis13y

In canon, portkeys aren't affected by disapparation jinxes - or so sayeth some site. You couldn't portkey out of Azkaban, so there must be some way to stop them. But probably not a lot, since Quirrell was relying on a few of them after they cleared Azkaban. But yes, I agree that canon is weak here. That's the benefit of this scenario - it makes a tighter plot that makes sense. They didn't run because it was a trap. Can't but this one at all. The assumption I'm working under is that it was a plot of Dumbledore's to destroy Voldemort. Why would thinking like a story mean that Lily would automatically fulfill the conditions of a dark magic ritual? Just because it would be convenient if she did? That just seems like massive wishful thinking on Dumbledore's part.

0bogdanb13y

I wouldn’t bet on it, it was just my impression that in stories good mothers sacrifice themselves for their babies in such situations—see canon for an obvious example—perhaps more often than in reality.

3buybuydandavis13y

Two aurors would be most likely to beg for mercy for their child and let themselves be slaughtered instead of fighting back? Harry himself noted the absurdity of thinking that would work, and I believe called it her "final failure as a mother". And wouldn't there be a whole lot of dark rituals going on, if mothers making sacrifices for their children would unknowingly and automatically invoke a dark ritual?

4pedanterrific13y

Alice and Frank Longbottom were Aurors, not the Potters. And it was Demented!Harry who thought "final failure as a mother"; Warm!Harry went on to think "He had regained an impossible memory, for all that the Dementor had made him desecrate it". It's my understanding that in this theory, it was Voldemort's line "I accept the bargain. Yourself to die, and the child to live." that fulfilled the description of a ritual, not anything Lily did.

0buybuydandavis13y

At least James was an auror, as testified by Remus, top of page 697. Perhaps not Lily. I've seen it concluded from the "thrice defied" that they fought him and lived to tell about it, but I don't think any of that has happened on stage. If she didn't offer it, I don't see why he would have said what he did out of the blue, or that it would have fulfilled the terms of a dark ritual even if he did, unless by saying that Lily instantly dropped dead. In this case, I see the ritual made by offer and acceptance. Without an offer, there is nothing for him to accept. The desecration was of his memory, not of his attitude toward it. I took that to mean that Lily actually did not try to cast the killing curse. (Although I personally don't consider that a desecration of the memory. It seemed quite sensible, if she was not trying to fulfill a dark ritual.)

0pedanterrific13y

Apparently not!

0pedanterrific13y

Sorry, this doesn't help at all. ffnet doesn't have page numbers, and page 697 of the pdf version mentions no such thing. Could you find the quote you're thinking of in the actual posted chapters, say on hpmor? This is true in canon; neither Lily nor James are Aurors in canon. Rituals do not require consent, they require that someone names that which is to be sacrificed, then that which is to be gained, in that order.

0buybuydandavis13y

Don't know that pdf version you're looking at. I'm looking at the pdf link on the front page of hpmor.com. pg. 697 Interesting for EY to deviate from canon and make him an auror. If it's true in canon that Lily and James fought Vodemort and lived to tell about it, then I think we should accept that as true here until there is evidence to the contrary, particularly with the "thrice defied" requiring some accounting. So two wizards, one of them an Auror, and both of them having fought Voldemort before and lived to tell about it. Which is the better strategy for them when confronting Voldemort? Fight him together, or have one fight separately, and one beg for mercy for their son? Also, just in cost benefit analysis, in one scenario, Voldemort has some chance of defeat, which should count for a lot in that strategy's potential benefits. Rituals have got to require more than you say, otherwise every promise of something for something would become a dark ritual. That the foremost Dark Wizard would unknowingly complete a dark ritual all on his is another of the great improbabilities. Prior probability too low.

2pedanterrific13y

From the current version: So, no. The better strategy is "run (and/or portkey, fly, apparate, floo, etc)". The fact that they didn't do this probably has to do with the fact that they were taken completely by surprise in their place of safety. And yes, the fact that if rituals could be done accidentally the world would look different is the main argument against this idea. Which is why its proponents have started to come up with conspiracy theories about Dumbledore planning everything, etc.

0bogdanb13y

I think perhaps I wasn’t clear enough: I’m not saying it makes sense, just that Dumbledore could plausibly think it does, and Lily could plausibly have reacted as she’s described to have done, even though that might not be very probable for most reference classes she might be part of in general. If you’re certain he’s actually completely sane and just pretending to be mad, with a few layers in between, then yes, it would be absurd for him, too. But Eliezer made his behavior sufficiently ambiguous that, even given his successes ( # ) I’m still not sure that he’s not biased to wishful narrative thought, his (apparent) successes explained in part by being powerful enough and in part by luck(**) and not-yet-revealed high-level plots. Note that several apparently rational and very competent characters—including Harry, Quirell, Amelia Bones and IIRC Moody—appear to believe or suspect this. I’m not saying it is so, but The Author seems to have made it really ambiguous on purpose. Note that we have no view into Dumbledore’s thoughts in any part of the text, so most of the evidence we have the other characters have, too. (#: He’s an old and powerful wizard who survived at least two great Dark Lords. See Moody’s musings on how hard that is.) (**: Given magic and that Felix potion, we can’t exclude that luck actually exists in MoR.)

1Eponymuse13y

Seems unlikely that the original prophecy was caused by Dumbledore, at least by the method of the magical clock. As in canon, Trelawney seems to have made the prophecy during a job interview, presumably before she was regularly sleeping with the clock. I expect that if Dumbledore wanted her to make a false prophecy at a specific time, something like an Imperius folled by Obliviation would be more expedient. Furthermore, we have seen Trelawney spontaneously prophecy in the dining hall; this prophecy at least appeared unplanned by Dumbledore.

0[anonymous]13y

Regardless of what the clock is for, it didn't play a part in the first prophecy, since Trelawney didn't receive it until after she was hired. And it's less likely that there are two ways of forcing someone to speak a prophecy than only one. The obvious explanation for the clock is that it's a listening device. The clock is evidence against Dumbledore being the source of the prophecies. The issue of the second prophecy is trickier. For a prophecy to be 'accidentally' overheard would be history repeating itself, if Dumbledore caused it. That would also be consistent behavior for a liar who tries to trick people into believing in destiny, as he did when he told Harry that his father's cloak had found its own way to its destined wearer. But it certainly looked like Dumbledore was surprised that morning, so I don't know. I think the weight of evidence is still on Dumbledore. For the reasons I've given in this thread, and also this: In the aftermath of the prophecy, his manipulation of Snape and Lily netted him a defeated Dark Lord, a double agent and powerful ally, and a newly horcruxed hero. If the prophecy hadn't occurred, he'd instead have... a bouncing baby boy. It's hard to see what he hoped to accomplish by driving Snape and Lily apart if he didn't intend to prod Voldemort into attacking the Potters. His plot has a prophecy-shaped hole in it. But I can't account for that damned clock, which means I've gone wrong somewhere. Ugh. I hope someone else gets interested in this question soon. I could use the help.

4pedanterrific13y

How do we know he was lying? Obvious solution: real prophecies exist and fake prophecies exist.

3Eponymuse13y

One possibility is that he didn't intentionally drive Snape and Lily apart. I don't think there's enough evidence of that to overcome the prior probability that Trelawney's prophecy was genuine. Note that Dumbledore himself seems to regard the prophecy as genuine---witness, for example, his apparently genuine interest in discovering the "power [Voldemort] knows not." Here's another way of looking at it. Assume Dumbledore planned in advance to defeat Voldemort by (i) convincing Voldemort of a false prophecy that would lead him to attempt the murder of a baby, and (ii) somehow manipulating the baby's mother into either performing ritual magic herself, or causing Voldemort to perform ritual magic that would bring about Voldemort's death when he attempted to kill the baby. We might now ask, is there a simpler way that Dumbledore might have tried to enact (i) and (ii), other than the means you have suggested? Note that a priori, assuming that Dumbledore is primarily concerned with defeating Voldemort, there is no reason for Dumbledore to deliver the false prophecy to Voldemort via an agent who is in love with the mother in question. He must then rely on the agent not understanding the prophecy in time. Furthermore, if the agent figures out the prophecy after relaying it to Voldemort, Dumbledore must then rely on Voldemort disregarding the agent's request to spare the mother. So going out of his way to push Snape and Lily apart, and then using Snape as a messenger, seems like a very unintuitive way for Dumbledore to execute this plot. Why not keep Snape and Lily together, see that they have a child, and then deliver the false prophecy to Voldemort via some other agent? Now, personally, I do think it's a possibility that Snape and Lily were driven apart by Dumbledore, maybe even intentionally. But I don't think it was for this reason.

2[anonymous]13y

Ah. See, my prior probability that Trelawney's prophecy was genuine is not very high. * Luna * The seer in the Weasley twins' story * The seer in the Quibbler story * Millicent * Millicent's source, presumably Rianne This story has an epidemic of false prophecy. This looks to me like it's intended to prime the reader to accept that an apparently true prophecy is actually false. I also think this is a consideration, but that appears to be a minority view. I'm expecting a false prophecy, and I'm looking for a reason for it to have occurred and apparently been fulfilled despite its falsity. I think Dumbledore expected the story to play out as it did in the novels. He would get a hero who was bred with the heroic qualities of his parents, bullheaded but pure of heart. Snape, who in HPMoR is terrible at riddles, would fail to solve this one, and his guilt at causing Lily's death would cement his status as a lifelong soldier of the light. Lily would die a martyr, and her sacrifice would ensure Voldemort's defeat. From canon: This is a complex plot that hinges on storybook logic, but that's not out of character for Dumbledore. (Yes, it's Quirrell saying it, but remember that he was right.) The plot is not too complex to be Dumbledore's, but it is too complex to succeed. That's why it didn't. Snape is no longer Dumbledore's. Instead of canon!Harry, he got HJPEV. Harry's mother attacked Voldemort, so her protection doesn't exist; Quirrell can pass the wards around his house at will. And although it failed, it has the outward appearance of having succeeded, because that's what Voldemort wants Dumbledore to believe. Apologies for repeating things I've said upthread. I wanted to set my beliefs in their proper context. I hope I've addressed your objections. One that I missed was Dumbledore's apparently genuine interest in discovering the "power [Voldemort] knows not." Dumbledore's relationship to storybook thinking is something I still don't understand. He seems to

[-]Nornagest13y140

My working theory for Dumbledore's emphasis on story logic is that it's a pragmatic decision supporting several different lines of influence.

First, we know he's pretending to be a lot crazier than he is: he acts like a character in a roleplaying game with "Insanity" marked down in the flaws section of his character sheet, not someone with an actual personality disorder, and going out of his way to act like Gandalf fits in fairly well with that.

Second, he spends a lot of his time working with kids, who're probably a lot more familiar with stories than with their real-life cognates: how many times does Draco make an analogy to something he's seen in a play?

Finally, people really are prone to generalize from fictional evidence, and maintaining a semi-fictionalized persona can aid in achieving instrumental goals when they're aligned with the narrative patterns it corresponds to. The Self Actualization storyline provides a good example of this in action: I read Dumbledore's part in that early on as using his persona to nudge Hermione into the high-fantasy hero role that Harry occupies in canon (and considerably more shakily in MoR). When she went off script, so did he. (I suspect that Riddle's Lord Voldemort persona was adopted for similar reasons, incidentally. He might even have picked up that trick from Dumbledore.)

5[anonymous]13y

I like this. More support from the text: the narrator draws a distinction between wizards who have walked the paths of power and everyone else. According to the narrator, it's the latter who apply story-reasoning to real life. Dumbledore is one of the former. ETA: This too. Which is a downright strange thing to say if you think Mr. Potter is the one with the prophesied "POWER TO VANQUISH THE DARK LORD". It's exactly what you'd say if you understood that the power of stories was a power you wielded over other people, and your hero was just another of your pawns.

3Eponymuse13y

Perhaps its not such a strange thing to say if you don't think Mr. Potter knows about the prophecy, and are trying to correct his insubordination. In the following chapters, Dumbledore doesn't act as though he has decided Harry is unsuitable as a hero. Rather than trying to replace him, Dumbledore begins to confide in him. Does Nornagest's explanation of Dumbledore's relationship with story-book reasoning affect your previous analysis? If you agree that Dumbledore feigns a story-book persona, rather than taking story-book logic seriously, then doesn't it seem strange that he would hatch such a plot? Note that his manipulation of the last battle in December is consistent with having realistic view of the world. Yes, Dumbledore did manage to acheive a "story-book outcome," but he clearly didn't expect this to happen---he had a contingency plan.

2pedanterrific13y

So the explanation for is that Dumbledore is lying, or...?

4[anonymous]13y

As I said, I don't really understand what's going on in Dumbledore's head. This is a lie. He claims to have deduced Harry's possession of the cloak by seeing the storylike pattern, when he personally wrapped the cloak and placed it next to Harry's bed. He's trying to convince Harry that life is like stories. Then he contradicts himself in a later chapter. Why? I don't know. "He did it because he's crazy" is an answer that can justify any outcome, doesn't concentrate probability mass, etc., but he sure isn't acting in anything like a coherent fashion.

4[anonymous]13y

In that chapter, he uses the "life is like stories" excuse to "deduce" the identity of the cloak without revealing that he already knew it. It works. Harry still has no idea that Santa Claus is Dumbledore.

0TimS13y

Dumbledore does think in stories, but he probably doesn't realize it. Some stories don't fit his model (if the villain carries too large an idiot ball or something?). That's the best explanation I can come up with.

0buybuydandavis13y

If it's a listening device. If it's a just a clock, it's not evidence of much. If it's a transmission device, I'd say it's evidence for Dumbledore being the source.

0MartinB13y

Sometimes the so called good commits serious atrocities to achieve a greater goal. This would be bad.

[-][anonymous]13y110

I agree. But y'know, it's odd that the three people most affected by the prophecy had their major life outcomes determined by Dumbledore's machinations. That's a coincidence that needs explaining, I think.

Another implication just hit me: it could make Sirius his accomplice, not Voldemort's. Odd that he didn't get a trial while Dumbledore was Chief Warlock of the Wizengamot, come to think of it. Huh.

7folkTheory13y

I'm not too sure Sirius has been Azkabanned at all...

[-]TheOtherDave13y170

I'm loving the idea that time travel is being proposed here as the simpler, less over-engineered solution to making a bunch of money.

[-]Blueberry13y170

I love Chapter 81, but it would have been way better if Draco was the one accused of murder, so Harry could marry Draco.

7thomblake13y

I smell omake

5Anubhav13y

He didn't marry Hermione.

5anotherblackhat13y

He also didn't get Hermione pregnant.

1Alex_Altair13y

That will certainly be in the Epilogue.

6Alejandro113y

As long as their child is not named Albus Severus...

[-]pedanterrific13y190

In this story, it seems a lot more likely to be Quirinus Tom Potter-Evans-Verres-Granger.

[-]Normal_Anomaly13y100

I'd feel sorry for that kid. But considering the genes and upbringing he'd have, I'm suddenly too busy feeling sorry for everyone else.

2Percent_Carbon13y

Not so certain: * Either character may die * Either character may decline romantic relations * We may fail to earn our happy ending.

2Blueberry13y

Well, if it were Draco, he would never have agreed to be in service, so it would have had to be marriage. Besides, we know he's hot for Harry but doesn't want to admit it, so it gives him an excuse to marry Harry.

7loserthree13y

Actually, Draco muses on the history of House Malfoy at some chapter I can't find right now, and how they're always the second-in-command to greatest leaders. Saying Draco would never agree to service is probably disregarding important and relevant information. Given your belief that the oath of fealty was a marriage vow and your claim here that Draco would not submit, a carelessly judgmental spectator Might come to possibly unfair conclusions about you. Namely, that you place such a high value on dominant roles for males and submissive roles for females that your perception is skewed. I'm curious if you think there might be some accuracy in that.

0Blueberry13y

I was more looking for an excuse to get Harry and Draco married. ;) But no, I think Draco is way too proud to swear subservience to Harry. I'm not exactly sure what you're asking. Those have historically been the usual gender roles. I obviously don't think that everyone follows them or that everyone should follow them, because I'm not an idiot.

3bogdanb13y

I know the wizards are relaxed about yaoi romance, but do we actually have any examples of actual same-sex marriage? (In MoR, I mean. I’m sure examples abound in slash-fiction.)

9bogdanb13y

Actually, it seems that they do have same-sex marriage. Chapter 42: By exception probat regulam it seems that there are same-sex marriages between MoR wizards.

2Blueberry13y

Awesome! Good to know.

875th13y

Given that the wizarding aristocracy is supremely concerned with perpetuating its bloodlines, I doubt that the issue of same-sex marriage has ever been brought before the Wizengamot.

7Armok_GoB13y

That shouldn't be a problem, polyjuce has been shown able to change gender, and to sustain the transformation indefinitely if taken regularly. Edit: This also explains (and is made more likely by) how harry getting Malfoy pregnant got taken seriously enough to end up in a newspaper.

5QuicklyStarfish13y

Urg... you now have me imagining what happens if polyjuice wears off someone eight-months pregnant.

1NihilCredo13y

Just a bad film: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0110216/

1Armok_GoB13y

Thanks, mission accomplished! ^_^

0Karl13y

I don't think taking polyjuice modify your genetic code. If that was the case, using polyjuice to take the form of a muggle or a squib would leave you without your magical powers.

2Armok_GoB13y

So? It should still create egg cells. There's some lower fertility from the yy possibility, and 66/33% rather than 50/50% of a boy. And maybe some increased risk of chromosomal diseases, but that should be it.

0TheOtherDave13y

This comment makes no sense to me at all. Are you presuming that genetic code controls the presence of magical powers independent of phenotypic expression?

1Karl13y

It's explained in detail in chapter 25 that the genes that make a person a wizard do not do so by building some complex machinery which allow you to become a wizard; the genes that make you a wizard constitute a marker which indicate to the source of magic that you should be allowed to cast spells.

0TheOtherDave13y

Whoops! Shows you how long it's been since I've read ch25. Thanks for clarifying that.

0pedanterrific13y

Do we know that it doesn't?

3Blueberry13y

I thought there was a Quibbler headline involving same-sex marriage, but upon checking I realized I was thinking of the one where Harry gets Draco pregnant. No, I don't think we have any information on the status of same-sex marriage or civil union in Magical Britain.

3bogdanb13y

The Quibbler is known for having ridiculous content, but I didn’t get the idea that reached the completely impossible level. Given magic, that headline might actually be physically possible.

1Blueberry13y

True. And the existence of that headline makes me think Magical Britain is at least somewhat supportive of same-sex relationships being formally recognized, though it's weak evidence.

[-]fubarobfusco13y180

"Romantic?" Hermione said. "They're both boys!"

"Wow," Daphne said, sounding a little shocked. "You mean Muggles really do hate that? I thought that was just something the Death Eaters made up."
— Chapter 42: Courage

In other words, the wizarding world is sufficiently accepting of same-sex relationships that Death Eaters could use the idea that Muggles are homophobic as a somewhat believable slander against Muggles.

1Blueberry13y

Ooh yes, there it is! Thanks.

0bogdanb13y

I think I actually found a hint.

[-]pedanterrific13y170

By this point Harry Potter had entirely forgotten the existence of Professor McGonagall, who had been sitting there this whole time undergoing a number of interesting changes of facial expression which Harry had not been looking at because he was distracted. [...]
So Harry, who at this point had a fair amount of adrenaline in his bloodstream, startled and jumped quite visibly when Professor McGonagall, her eyes now blazing with impossible hope and the tears on her cheek half-dried, leapt to her feet and cried, "With me, Mr. Potter!" and, without waiting for a reply, tore down the stairs that led to the bottom platform where waited a chair of dark metal.
It took a moment, but Harry ran after; though it took him longer to reach the bottom, after Professor McGonagall vaulted half the stairs with a strange catlike motion and landed with the astonished-looking Auror trio already pointing their wands at her. [...]
"Both of you stop being silly," Professor McGonagall said in her firm Scottish accent (it was strange how much that helped). "Mr. Potter, hold out your wand so that Miss Granger's fingers can touch it. Miss Granger, repeat after me. Upon my life and magic

... (read more)

2Shmi13y

-100? She just doesn't know when to talk and when to keep her mouth shut.

[-]ArisKatsaris13y230

She just doesn't know when to talk and when to keep her mouth shut.

You're so upset that McGonaggal's intervention prevented Harry from asking Hermione's hand in marriage? You're a Ravenclaw girl at heart, I see. :-)

[-]Spurlock13y110

+100. Prudence is really more of a Slytherin virtue.

8LucasSloan13y

Sure, but that's a Slytherin virtue.

[-]Rejoyce13y150

A matter with the Comed-Tea that was bugging me for a while:

Chapter 14:

SO THAT'S HOW THE COMED-TEA WORKS! Of course! The spell doesn't force funny events to happen, it just makes you feel an impulse to drink right before funny things are going to happen anyway!

Hypotheses: Comed-Tea on person = impulse to drink, Comed-Tea not on person = no impulse to drink.

According to Chapter 12:

Harry couldn't help but feel the urge to drink another Comed-Tea. (And when he didn't...) Harry inhaled his own saliva and went into a coughing fit just as all eyes turned toward him.

So no matter what, even if you don't end up drinking it, you will get the Impulse before something funny happens.

Chapter 46:

I have been saving them for special occasions; there is a minor enchantment on them to ensure they are drunk at the right time. This is the last of my supply, but I do not think there will ever come a finer occasion.

So Harry has used up all of his Comed-Tea. (edit: it appears that Harry actually has tons left unless he's not mentioning some he drank/gave away, look at bottom of post)

...

WHY? WHYYY?!

It is apparent that you'll still get the impulse to drink whether or not you do end up drinki... (read more)

8bogdanb13y

Chapter 17: He doesn’t seem to choke after this, but there follow several occasions where might have, had he been drinking. Anyway, the sentence means he kind of does use the Comed-Tea to kind-of-sort-of-predict the future, albeit not systematically. Regarding the counting, his line in chapter 14 might be meant to suggest he had been doing more experiments “not on camera”. There are only three occasions where he’s seen using it until then; he shouldn’t have been that frustrated about the explanation after that few tries.

7Eponymuse13y

Unless he actually followed through with saying that Voldemort is still alive, this wouldn't be enough.

0[anonymous]13y

What if he actually planned on going through with saying "The Dark Lord is still alive", but got Silencio'd by an invisible time-turned Harry he wasn't aware of right as he's about to say it? It'd be obvious, but at least he wouldn't actually release the secret?

0FAWS13y

We don't know that, committing to saying Vldemort is alive conditional on actually giving them a can might suffice.

4Eponymuse13y

Harry could still get a false negative. Remember, Harry will feel the impulse to offer a drink to Alice if and only if if Alice is about to be surprised. So not feeling an impulse to offer her a drink would indicate that either that Alice would not be surprised that Voldemort is alive, or that Harry will not actually end up telling her.

1FAWS13y

Again, we don't know that. The soda working in two steps as you seem to suggest (detecting future surprise, then determining whether that surprise is sufficient to cause soda spitting when drunk at the right time) is consistent with what we know about the soda. But that's not the only possibility consistent with what we know. The soda could also work in a single step and detect whether soda drunk at various points would be spit, without directly detecting surprise at all.

6Jonathan_Elmer13y

Regardless of the reason for the spit Harry would still have to follow through with whatever that is for the signal to be sent back in time to cause the urge to drink. Otherwise it would be like Harry escaping from that locked classroom after Draco tortured him without then going back in time and sending the Professor to let him out.

6[anonymous]13y

So from what we know of Quirrell, it would be just like him (having recently learned about Comed-Tea) to have a policy of spitting out soda that he drinks, so that no one gains information on whether or not he is surprised.

1Eponymuse13y

You are right, those are both possibilities. Though, one of them has been explicitly presented by the author, and endorsed by Harry. I don't think we have much reason to doubt the canonical interpretation.

3TheOtherDave13y

Earlier thoughts on Comed-Tea here

0brilee13y

I interpreted Comed-tea as the simplest example of backwards causality - an event A causing event B, where A occurs /after/ B in time. Eliezer introduced Comed-Tea to make the point that the HPMoR universe does not operate by what we imagine to be standard causality rules. I suspect that, the same way that messing with Time somehow results in a message saying "NO", it would be similarly impossible to commit to drinking Comed Tea.

0AspiringKnitter13y

You know, that is a really good idea.

[-]jimrandomh13y150

Prediction: Harry will try to explain the general concept of arbitrage to Dumbledore, and it will be blocked by the Interdict of Merlin.

Because otherwise, certain things about the wizarding economy make no sense at all.

[-][anonymous]13y280

Funny, but unfortunately people telling other people things is exactly what the Interdict of Merlin doesn't forbid.

[-]FAWS13y120

The Interdict of Merlin blocking transmission of non-magical knowledge between living minds?

8[anonymous]13y

The magics of Echo Gnomics from the Counterweight Continent?

3Alex_Altair13y

I don't quite understand. Arbitrage has nothing to do with magic.

2loserthree13y

It's a joke, I think. And if it is it's hilarious. I laughed aloud.

6jimrandomh13y

It was't a joke, but rather a completely serious prediction of a joke. That's hardly the same thing at all.

1Percent_Carbon13y

That one is funny too.

[-]thelittledoctor13y150

Something I just noticed on a second read-through - the reuse of the word "riddle" in context here seems like a reminder to Lucius of who he thinks Harry really is, and this is not the first time it's come up when Harry is exposed to Dementors. Perhaps this lends credence to the theory that riddle is the "strange word" he learned when first exposed?

[-]Percent_Carbon13y100

Voldemort used the word to tease as Quirrell and as the cloak and hat. He probably did it in the last war, too. Lucius may think that Voldemort is teasing him just like he used it, when Harry says it.

It's not a strange word, though. That's probably so we know the spell being cast was not AK.

[-]cultureulterior13y140

Progress of Eliezer vs JKR, Fvapr Ryvrmre unf fgngrq gung gur fgbel jba'g or ybatre guna gur frira obbxf, cre jbeq, naq gung vg'f zber guna unysjnl qbar

2Paulovsk13y

I don't get it pretty clear. Could you explain in few words?

6cultureulterior13y

The individual colored patches are the five first JKR books, and the overlapping patch is The Methods of Rationality, plotted by chapter and book, vs the number of total words written. MoR is now longer than all the first four books put together. The reason I made the graph was I was wondering if those two individual EY statements (rot13'd in my statement above) were would add up to make more than one bit of information, but they did not. If Eliezer finishes Methods of Rationality at 150% of current length, we'd end up midway into the sixth book.

0[anonymous]13y

I'm confused; you said you plotted the first five of JKR's books, but you said that MoR's longer than the first four books. The graph shows that MoR is longer than the first three books but halfway through the fourth. And why did you graph five books when Mr. Yudkowsky says it won't be longer than seven books? Shouldn't you have done seven?

[-]aladner13y140

"Enough, Mr. Potter," said Professor McGonagall. "We shall be late for afternoon Transfiguration as it is. And do come back here, you're still terrifying that poor Dementor." She turned to the Aurors. "Mr. Kleiner, if you would!"

Is it just me, or does that NOT sound like someone who just found out that dementors, thought to be manifestations of fear, are afraid of her student? I'm guessing it's one of two things:

She's so relieved that one of her student isn't going to be tortured to death that she isn't really processing everything else that's going on or
She thinks the whole thing is a trick Harry and Dumbledore came up with, and dementors aren't really afraid of Harry.

Either one could lead to a very entertaining aftermath.

[-]FAWS13y160

Unlike most of the room she knows Harry well enough that even him scaring a Dementor, no matter how surprising, wouldn't make her personally afraid of Harry; she might be worried about what trouble he could cause but she knows perfectly well that he wouldn't do anything to her. Besides it was less of a surprise for her since Dumbledore already told her Harry had developed a new charm.

3aladner13y

I agree that her being afraid of Harry isn't something I would expect, but her comments make me think she isn't taking the situation seriously.

075th13y

~And furthermore, in her post-Azkaban-breakout council with Snape and Dumbledore, Dumbledore explicitly told her that Harry has unique magics that would help orchestrate an Azkaban breakout. She doesn't know the specifics of Harry's ability, but Minerva would certainly be able to deduce that it has something to do with Dementors.~ [EDIT: Apparently I did not read your last sentence before deciding to post this.]

[-][anonymous]13y160

Or, she's simply ceased to be surprised at the extent of Harry's abilities outpacing her expectations of them.

[-]loserthree13y140

McGonagall is House Head of Gryffindor.

She is just that unflappable.

7pedanterrific13y

You have no idea how tempted I am to go back through the story and come up with a montage of Minerva sputtering incoherently / tearing her hair out / sticking her fingers in her ears and going la la la / at a loss for words / blurting something inadvisable / etc.

[-]loserthree13y170

She's so unflappable that she's the best choice to demonstrate that a situation inspires the maximum amount of flap, I guess.

6erratio13y

Or, you know, relief + dry sense of humour = exactly that kind of reaction as a coping mechanism. I am reminded of why I prefer British comedy to American - in American comedies everyone tends to be very obvious and melodramatic, while in British the tendency is more towards understated and deadpan. McGonagall's reaction fits perfectly into the latter category, trivialising the entire situation rather than mugging for the audience. (Not that some of the humour in the earlier chapters hasn't been overblown melodrama. Harry's parents leaving the room to have hysterics stands out as the most obvious example)

2summerstay13y

Fawlty Towers is a good example of the understated and deadpan nature of British comedy.

0summerstay13y

I'm kidding, by the way. Anyone who has seen it would know that it has a lot of broad slapstick humor.

0buybuydandavis13y

Watch the original Bob Newhart series for understated and deadpan.

3bogdanb13y

Or, she’s the head of Gryffindor, and she felt the need to at least appear to put up a brave front in support of her students.

3Normal_Anomaly13y

Or, in addition to everyone else's reasons, she's already working hard to maintain a calm demeanor for the sake of Hermione and Harry.

0dspeyer13y

A possibility is that she thinks very fast* and realizes that Harry ought to move away from the dementor (since it is effecting him some) but that it must be done in a way that makes Harry look strong, not weak. Showing that Harry has no problem standing undefended next to a dementor but walked away out of pity reinforces his strength nicely. *= fast may actually mean that Dumbledore went back and gave her carefully edited information so she could make plans in advance

0MartinB13y

Or she already knew.

[-]FAWS13y140

We know this not to be true since Quirrel changed back into his normal appearance when the polyjuice wore off in Azkaban while he was unconscious.

[-]thelittledoctor13y140

I think my favorite part of this update comes not from the chapter, but from the Author's Notes:

"If you write sufficiently good fanfiction, you can realize your romantic dreams!"

(Although "Make him go away" is either tied for the position or a close second.)

[-]Alsadius13y140

I have a suspicion that the average fanfic-created relationship is not caused by anything best described as "good".

2Incorrect13y

I'm genuinely curious how you came to that suspicion.

[-]bogdanb13y130

I think I figured out how Dumbledore knew about Harry wanting to change the rules of Quiddich. Instead of reading student minds he used the cloak:

This is the Cloak of Invisibility [...] Your father lent it to me to study shortly before he died, and I confess that I have received much good use of it over the years.

(Emphasis mine. Well, of course, that he would use it is obvious and the note is not proof of anything, but that’s what triggered the idea. Also, it makes a lot of sense that Harry’s father would lend the cloak to Dumbledore for study.)

If he did this on the train platform (which would make sense as an opportunity to be mysterious to new students, or just to Harry) there’s a bit of other interesting stuff he might have heard. Whatever Draco cast (the description doesn’t quite match Quietus, and it was wordless or at least not heard by Harry), it probably doesn’t work for a cloaked guy near you, and certainly not Dumbledore if he really wanted to listen.

3Percent_Carbon13y

Then maybe the cloaked Dumbledore is the one that told Harry to talk to Hermione. Would that make the mysteries less complicated, or more?

3ArisKatsaris13y

We already know it was McGonagall that told Harry to find Hermione, no? Where's the mystery?

0Percent_Carbon13y

No? No, I suppose. Could you tell me how we know that?

[-]ArisKatsaris13y110

Chapter 6:

"I am unlikely ever to forget it. Thank you, Harry, that does make me feel better about entrusting you with certain things. Goodbye for now."

Harry turned to go, into the Leaky Cauldron and out toward the Muggle world.

As his hand touched the back door's handle, he heard a last whisper from behind him.

"Hermione Granger."

"What?" Harry said, his hand still on the door.

"Look for a first-year girl named Hermione Granger on the train to Hogwarts."

"Who is she?"

There was no answer, and when Harry turned around, McGonagall was gone.

Chapter 8:

"No," Hermione said. "Who told you about me?"

"Professor McGonagall and I believe I see why."

While reading, I never considered this to be a mystery, or even a question.

9pedanterrific13y

To add another data point: When I read that, and after some subsequent events, I couldn't quite manage to ignore the fact that Quirrell was in the Leaky Cauldron at the time.

5Percent_Carbon13y

Perhaps you should. McGonagall said what she meant to say, and then she said goodbye. Also, McGonagall doesn't do the Batman Exit at any other point in the fic or the source.

5ArisKatsaris13y

The way I see it, she then had a last minute thought that the loneliness avid book-reader Harry mentioned and the loneliness she saw in avid book-reader Hermione might be healed if they met each other. But she didn't want to say anything more, because it'd be inappropriate to actually discuss another student to Harry. I think Eliezer just being silly with the dramatic-ness of the thing has a higher prior than Dumbledore going around invisible and playing ventriloquist to make him think that McGonagall told him to find Hermione -- especially when Dumbledore could have accomplished just as much by e.g. telling McGonagall to tell Harry to find Hermione. (And there's no other player at this stage, neither Quirrel, nor Snape, nor Lucius, that would know or care about Hermione at this point. It's unlikely that even Dumbledore knew anything about her beyond that she was a new Muggleborn student.) But I don't think this is anything more complicated or mysterious than Minerva thinking that Harry & Hermione would be a good match for each other. Now I do find it slightly more plausible that Dumbledore was following Harry around invisible during his King's Cross station visit -- but that's mostly because in that occasion Harry Potter was known to be in a known location and thus might have been a potential target for enemies and therefore require protection.

4Percent_Carbon13y

You are making excuses for your assumptions by piling on more assumptions. Chapter 6 is written in a way that does not make the speaker clear. That looks deliberate. We are given Harry's opinion of who said it, but he never confirms that with McGonagall. We've been in McGonagall's head quite a few times, and she has never thought back to playing match-maker. You may believe that was McGonagall. You may be right. But when you say, "we already know," you are mistaken.

5ArisKatsaris13y

You're misusing the word assumption. I don't *assume" that was McGonaggal's reason, I simply judged it to be the most likely and most natural explanation, given the facts in evidence. But yes, I did assume that my initial reading of the text and that Harry also wasn't being mistaken about who told him about Hermione. As I said, I didn't even realize some people saw this bit as a mystery. That's what true assumptions look like, I guess, when one doesn't even realize some people consider it a question. Okay. As I said, when I wrote that sentence, i didn't even realize there existed people who considered this a question. Discussing more about this would probably just be about what the word "knowledge" means.

3Xachariah13y

You would think that Harry, on hearing a mysterious voice, would mention something. Harry turned around expecting McGonagall, not expecting some random person. Harry heard McGonagall. The author would also mention that the voice changed owners or sounded strange. It's clever writing to drop clues in plain sight to the reader. It's not clever writing for your story to omit sensory experiences that are immediately apparent to all the involved characters, but are not conveyed to the reader.

4Anubhav13y

I would be very surprised if there were a grand total of 0 voice-changing charms in existence. And besides, it's a whisper. That's probably significant in some way.

7Benquo13y

5Xachariah13y

You're multiplying hypothesises unnecessarily. Every member of Hogwarts could actually be Dumbledore with polyjuice and a time turner. Remember we only know about the 6 hour limit from him (or people that could be him, or forged by him). There's no reason it couldn't be so, just like there's no reason that the person Harry was having a conversation with couldn't have changed out by a an invisible man with a 'changemyvoiceio' spell. But it's way more reasonable to assume that people are who they think they are, and that the person that starts a conversation is the same one that finishes it.

6Alex_Altair13y

Suddenly, Dumbledore EVERYWHERE.

0Pavitra13y

Between this and the auncle comment by pedanterrific, it seems plausible that it was Quirrel who said that line.

5ArisKatsaris13y

It's an ugly hypothesis, because so far Hermione's influence in Harry has been that of greatest opposition to Quirrel's influence... If Quirrel set it up so that they met, then this would have all been to his purpose since the beginning, setting up some future betrayal from Hermione from the start. (e.g make a paragon of goodness friends with Harry, so that he'll do anything to keep her from Azkaban, even if that means declaring war on magical Britain?) Thankfully, I don't consider it very likely. I think this being McGonaggal who matched the two of them is still much more likely.

1Pavitra13y

Alternatively, perhaps Quirrel thought Hermione would make a good straw foil to himself. Set up the main anti-Quirrel voice in Harry's life as someone who's conspicuously naive, and Harry will be more inclined to see Quirrel as the voice of reason rather than the voice of evil.

2bogdanb13y

From this I understand that she said goodbye outside the LC (in the magic side), then he entered, presumably closed the front door, traversed the LC, reached the back door that leads to the muggle side, and then he heard a whisper behind him. Unless the distance between the front door and back door is very short, if it was McGonagall she had to have gone to the trouble of crossing that long distance and exit the front door in the time it took Harry to turn around, or disappearing outright, or casting her whisper across the distance. While not impossible, none of that is very much in character for her, and Harry was distracted enough at the time not to notice. I think it’s supposed to be a Clue, or at least a Mysterious Foreshadowing Event (TM). I’m not saying it was Quirrell, but the fact that he was noted to be there earlier seems like a hint. Although Hermione seems to have been an opposite influence to Quirrell, as Aris mentions below, remember that Quirrell is a very high level player. Much of that might have been intended as part of a complex Xanatos gambit, which can have more than three steps if you have access to prophecy and time-travel. “Make goverment crush hero’s girlfriend, hero crushes government” was suggested as a possible Quirrell plot, you need only prepend a “Make hero love girl” step to justify him being the whisperer. (But don’t anchor on that one, plots that involve time knotting have plenty of opportunity for weird facts being explained as someone’s intent.)

0clgroft13y

FWIW I agree with your interpretation. To take it further: McGonagall accompanies Harry to Diagon Alley, while (on Dumbledore's orders) learning as much as possible about him. She attempts to report to Dumbledore, but is speechless; Dumbledore may or may not be reading her mind, I don't know. Before this, he was happy to delegate the responsibility, but after this meeting, he naturally decides he'd better investigate personally. Platform 9.75 is the next convenient opportunity. Yes, that's a lot of detail, but I think the story bears it out.

[-]pedanterrific13y120

So, Dementors Part Deux.

First, because someone had to say it:

Harry took all the silver emotion that fueled his Patronus Charm and shoved it at the Dementor; and expected Death's shadow to flee from him -

-and as Harry did that, he flung his hands up and shouted "BOO!"

The void retreated sharply away from Harry until it came up against the dark stone behind.

In the hall there was a deathly silence.

...And to everyone but Harry, that deathly silence seemed to say "Please do not punish this one, my Dark Liege!"

Harry turned his back on the empty void, and had a moment to wonder why Dumbledore and Lucius were making such odd faces before the Aurors acted on reflex.

(I guess Dementors aren't that smart.)

Secondly, I noticed that Harry's first Transfiguration lesson includes a photograph of a Dementor. What would that look like? What does Harry see, compared to everyone else? Why was he asking all the other students what they saw in the Patronus lesson without ever once thinking of that photograph?

5Anubhav13y

Probably just a cloaked and hooded figure. Next you'll be wondering why the robes in the picture don't decay.

2pedanterrific13y

That seems like it must be it, but it still doesn't make much sense. Page 5 has a woman with horribly discolored skin screaming in agony, page 6 has... a guy in a cloak! Oh no!

[-]fubarobfusco13y160

Ministry-issued textbooks might not have the best dramatic pacing.

3Eliezer Yudkowsky13y

The kids know what's in the cloak.

4GeeJo13y

So add some sort of minor fear charm to that page of the textbook. Wizards aren't limited to paper and ink in their tools at conveying information to an audience.

0Alsadius13y

The Dementor's goal was to not die. You don't generally accomplish that by antagonizing the one guy who can kill you.

5wedrifid13y

Unless they already plan to kill you, in which case antagonizing them can potentially reduce their threat.

4tadrinth13y

Ah, but Harry doesn't intend to kill Dementors in particular, he aims to eradicate death itself (destroying them indirectly) and he is NOT confident that he will accomplish that in his lifetime. A Dementor that pisses off Harry dies immediately, while a Dementor that doesn't will only die if Harry lives long enough to succeed.

2Alsadius13y

I doubt Dementors have a proper understanding of just how much Harry hates them. Also, I suspect that delaying the inevitable is a pretty universal reaction of intelligent creatures - you never know, the horse might learn to sing.

4wedrifid13y

Or at least it could be a universal reaction of intelligent mammals.

0Alsadius13y

Are you familiar with the story I was referencing? Delaying the inevitable is actually a perfectly rational thing to do.

1wedrifid13y

I've heard it, it's cute and has a sometimes applicable moral. But my response is to the universal generalization across all intelligent creatures in all circumstances. Are you familiar with the "Mind Projection Fallacy" I linked to?

2Alsadius13y

I haven't heard the phrase, but it's a pretty obvious concept to anyone who's read sci-fi. My point is that delaying the inevitable is an actual strategy, and one that has good reason to exist, whatever the type of intelligence. Unless you're literally prescient, playing for higher variance in a bad situation makes good sense.

1wedrifid13y

The goalposts seem to have moved irrecoverably.

0kilobug13y

I would guess it's pretty universal in non-superintelligent but still intelligent creatures, because it does work to a point. A non-superintelligent creature is unable to reliably foresee the future, and what seems "inevitable" right now often is not (because of external events, or because of a solution found later on). So, delaying something that seems inevitable will sometimes end up in finding a way to counter it.

[-]loserthree13y120

Edit: While some points may remain useful for the sake of reference, this theory is disproved in Chapter 82, and Aberforth's death no longer lacks narrative purpose.

Who killed Narcissa?

Suspects:

Dumbledore
Bones
Lucius
Voldemort
Someone else

HJPEV tells us that this doesn't fit the headmaster's style. His style is curiously consistent.

There is one offhand remark, vengeance, and a practical cold-heartedness favoring Bones. "Why not Bones?" is only a little better than no argument at all.

Lucius is presented as a devoted family man. It would be inconsistent characterization for him to do this. That works for real life, but HP&tMoR is fiction, which must make sense.

Voldemort has reason not to do this, as it made a fool out of one of his tools and weakened his side by making them less willing to strike indiscriminately.

[-]Eponymuse13y100

There is one offhand remark, vengeance, and a practical cold-heartedness favoring Bones. "Why not Bones?" is only a little better than no argument at all.

Also there is the fact (mentioned by someone else, sorry I forget who) that Narcissa's sister, Bellatrix, murdered Bones' brother. Edit: I am an idiot, you already mentioned this.

Bringing in Aberforth is a really interesting idea. Now that I think about it, even given the wizarding wars, it is remarkable that so many siblings have died or nearly died:

Albus/Aberforth
Bellatrix/Narcissa
Bones/her brother (who, exactly?)
Petunia/Lily

The last one is interesting with the role of survivor exchanged as well, since there is a hint that Petunia may have threatened suicide in order to convince Lily to brew the beauty potion.

4buybuydandavis13y

Also, Bones is the one who speaks up to stop Dumbledore from "confessing" to killing Narcissa. I think it's Bones. Too many coincidences otherwise.

1loserthree13y

Eponymuse, I think I covered that with the word 'vengeance.' Those coincidences are otherwise satisfied by the fact that Bones' motives are served by Narcissa's Immolation, whoever did it. Given what we know about her, she'd act the same way if Dumbledore or Moody were Narcissa's Immolator. Still, it does make some narrative sense for her be the one. I am not at all confident that Aberforth was involved. I would like it very much, though, if someone could add something more to or take something away from the rickety scaffold propping this theory up. Aberforth may have died just to emphasize the harshness of the war in ways the source did not. If that's the case, I'm making a red herring out of a pointless bit of the set. However, there was nothing in the text that tells us that Aberforth was a tragic casualty of a meaningless war or anything of the sort. For now he looks, to me, like a gun on the mantle.

3Eponymuse13y

Sorry, apparently I'm illiterate. Also, I guess "siblings getting killed" isn't much of a pattern. Given that people were getting killed in the war, and that people have siblings, you can count the people getting killed as siblings.

2pedanterrific13y

It was meee. Also there's the Bellatrix idea. /shameless self-promotion

2orthonormal13y

It has to be Dumbledore, by Conservation of Narrative Detail: There's no way that the conditions of Harry's promise to Draco would have been spelled out in such detail if learning the truth would be all it took to expiate it. It's going to turn out that Dumbledore did intentionally burn an innocent Narcissa Malfoy to death, but for a justifiable reason (though it's going to be interesting to see what that could be), and thus Harry is going to have the impossible task of convincing Draco to let him out of the promise.

2loserthree13y

Other than my desire for Snape to kill Dumbledore, I don't see any reason why HJPEV should talk Draco into letting him out of the promise. It is more important to the themes of the work for HJPEV to follow through on a promise so dramatically given, than to shirk it. Likewise, it would be important for Dumbledore to face the consequences as administered by HJPEV. You have an interesting point about the promise. It is awfully detailed for something that would just be set aside. Still, it could have been so detailed just to allow a semi-light character like HJPEV to bond with a semi-dark character like Draco. Or maybe to allow the author to demonstrate the practice of thinking things through, through HJPEV. Or, as the Pedant One points out, something else entirely.

1pedanterrific13y

Always be aware that there may be a possibility you haven't thought of.

2hairyfigment13y

1clgroft13y

4pedanterrific13y

Yes: why would Dumbledore allow McGonagall to think that Voldemort only had one Horcrux?

0clgroft13y

This is a very good point.

3loserthree13y

Probably as much "not the headmaster's style" to kill someone who happened to be a Horcrux so directly instead of weaving a complex plot to something, something, something, and then something else.

0bogdanb13y

Canon seems to imply that living horcrux anchors can be killed normally to destroy the horcrux. (Magic apparently can’t actually fix death, and a horcrux is destroyed when the anchor is “damaged beyond magic repair”.) I’m not sure MoR retains that, but it would be a huge game-breaker if it didn’t, and one that Voldie would have seen and taken advantage of: You could protect your army from all but a few arcane dark spells by having your minions horcrux each-other. Note that the rare Fiendfyre is mentioned as necessary to destroy a horcrux, but the much more common Avada Kedavra is not—which suggests that, if it were to work like that, horcruxing would make you invulnerable even to AK. (In other words, AK is not mentioned as one of the few horcrux-destroying spells because it only works on living people, and living horcruxes can be just killed normally instead of requiring advanced methods.)

3ArisKatsaris13y

Canon gave us an example of two living horcruxes (Nagini and Harry Potter), and for the former the same sword of Gryffindor that had been used to destroy other horcruxes was used, while for the latter the weird stipulation that Voldemort had to kill Harry Potter himself was added. The latter especially didn't make much sense... But either way I suggest we not be too sure of what is required to kill a living Horcrux in HPMoR.

0clgroft13y

While I'm no longer convinced of the Narcissa-was-a-Horcrux hypothesis, I don't buy this argument. Even if Voldie thinks of it (which, okay, that part's reasonable), it assumes that he needs an invincible army more than he needs to keep the idea of Horcruxes secret. This is wildly implausible. His non-invincible army was doing just fine. Also, ArisKatsaris' comment.

1bogdanb13y

I’m not 100% convinced myself, it just seems likely. I won’t argue about the sword (nobody ever tried without it), canon is too fuzzy about the details and Eliezer explicitly said that he makes them up as he goes along. About Voldie, if Horcruxes worked that way at the very least he would have thought to make himself the Horcrux of someone else, like Bella, just to gain the benefits as a back-up (even though he had horcruxes, reviving is a chore, and at least in MoR he’d be prepared against accidental defeat). And if I was him, I’d have at least my top followers horcrux a small object that I can easily destroy and that I can keep on me at all times (he had easy access to basilisk venom and magic pouches), and Obliviate them about the process to keep the secret. Of course, we have no indication he didn’t do that, except that a lot of his followers were killed and Fiendfyre is still considered rare. But I still think such an effect would be too powerful for MoR, it’d basically remove anything but Fiendfyre and Basilisk-venom from the offensive options. (And it seems that Salazar’s basilisk might no longer available, though characteristically cannon seems to suggest that breeding a basilisk is ridiculously easy, just forbidden.) Also, if living Horcruxes are not killable by normal means, that would suggest that mean they don’t die of old age, either, which again would not quite fit.

1MatthewBaker13y

I like this possibility, it furthermore postulates that Albus was confused for Aberforth which is very likely IMO.

1pedanterrific13y

When do you think Narcissa died? There's, let's see, seventeen months between Draco's birth and Voldemort's "death", right? I had assumed it happened afterwards.

1loserthree13y

Sorry to quote the same passage at you twice, but the best we have for dating this other than the necessary birth of Draco is in chapter 56. I don't have a quote to back me, just now, but don't the common folk regard the death of Voldemort as the end of the war? (That's insensitive to Neville's parents, of course, but there it is.)

0pedanterrific13y

I hadn't thought that was evidence either way, since apparently no one but the Death Eaters believed that Dumbledore actually did it.

[-]loserthree13y120

Your idea of marriage vows seems rather lifestyle-specific.

3NihilCredo13y

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45lXXiLbTxM

6Blueberry13y

Goreans are the creationists of lifestyle BDSMers...

1Percent_Carbon13y

I think that statement is likely to be insulting to just about everyone involved in the comparison. So I would like to learn exactly how you mean that.

2pedanterrific13y

I don't see how it's insulting to non-Gorean lifestyle BDSMers. And the others, well.

4Percent_Carbon13y

"Goreans are to lifestyle BDMSers as creationists are to ___." I filled that in with 'theists" because that is the group creationists are part of like Goreans are part of the BDSM community. Now that community has their safe, sane, and consensual lifestyle choices compared to allowing the belief in an imaginary friend to control your life with little restriction. The believers have their faith compared to the depraved antics of perverts. The enlightened science of the creationists is compared to the escapist delusions of the Goreans. And finally the compared to the mockery of science and clumsy apologetics of creationism. Offense for everyone!

3Blueberry13y

I was alluding to a Larry Summers quote: The point was to insult the Goreans by comparing them to creationists, and that I hoped no one took them as a representation of lifestylers. I'm not sure why I got voted to -2, though.

2Percent_Carbon13y

That's a fantastic quote.

[-]Daniel_Starr13y120

Can we add the 'harry_potter' discussion tag to this post?

(Contrary to what the post text says, as of right now this post does not show up on the list of Harry Potter discussion posts.)

2bogdanb13y

Done, thanks for the heads-up.

[-]DanPeverley13y120

I am really interested in how this is all going to work back at Hogwarts. Harry has already been pushing the envelope in the past, but this was a public power display. Draco's out for a while, Hermione will be considered a murderess by significant portions of the school (and apparently she's now magically sworn to obey Harry?), Quirrel is doing... something... and all the schemers and plotters are scheming and plotting on overdrive. I think the money will really be the least of Harry's concerns before this tangle is unwoven. I sort of enjoy learning little bits about Eliezer in the author's notes. "Why yes, I do lead the same sort of life as fanfiction characters, thank you for noticing," made me laugh quietly to myself. This is doubtless because I am a gossip-monger and a hopless platonic voyeur of other peoples lives.

7buybuydandavis13y

That's attempted murderess and Minion#1 in Harry's Dark Army. Maybe Hermione needs to join Chaos Legion now. I don't see how she can be credible as a leader in opposition to Harry anymore, even in a game.

6Percent_Carbon13y

Unless EY adds it in, Harry forgot to snap his fingers.

[-]Alsadius13y150

But he threatened to, and that's almost as bad.

5bogdanb13y

Snapping fingers means “I can do anything”. Saying “Boo” means “I scare Dementors”.

4Armok_GoB13y

He doesn't need a miracle to scare dementors.

[-][anonymous]13y110

Just an odd thought about something Draco said in Chapter 48:

Before them was a small empty place of stone set against the night sky. Not a roof like the one he'd dropped Harry from, but a tiny and proper courtyard, far above the ground. With proper railings, elaborate traceries of stone that flushed seamlessly into the stone floor... How so much artistry had been infused into the creation of Hogwarts was something that still awed Draco every time he thought about it. There must have been some way to do it all at once, no one could have detailed so much piece by piece, the castle changed and every new piece was like that. It was so far beyond the wizardry of these fading days that no one would have believed it if they hadn't seen the proof in Hogwarts itself.

...is - is Hogwarts sentient? If it's animate, capable of creative expression, and self-constructing, it's not out of the question that Hogwarts might be in some sense intelligent or alive. It'd also explain some things about the Hogwarts security system, to say nothing about the Room of Requirement, in canon.

[-]Xachariah13y110

Transfiguration is non-permanent, and any gold sold to Gringotts would be immediately tested for transfiguration. Additionally, trying to counterfeit gets the goblin nation to declare war on you. (Ch 15)

3moridinamael13y

Trading his configured gold to muggles in exchange for other forms of currency would work, essentially laundering the transfigured gold in the muggle system and then giving real gold to the goblins. Actually, with Imperius and Obliviate and false-memory charms, any wizard could steal unlimited quantities of money from muggles. Just kidnap the bank managers of large banks and Imperius them into taking a few suitcases of money home, take the money and remove their memory of having done it. Really, this is only slightly more unethical than Harry's arbitrage scheme. Currency is a sort of social agreement about valuation of assets, and abusing the monetary system results in ... all the problems we're having in the real world, for instance. edit: and then I look further down the page and see someone saying this much better and pointing out why it probably wouldn't work.

[-]MarkusRamikin13y110

Funny how karma never adds up in those polls.

There should be a house rule about always linking to the karma sink in the poll choices.

Not that it matters that EY or anyone else gets a few points of extra karma, it's just my "defective mechanism detected" brain lobe giving me OCD.

[-]NancyLebovitz13y110

I wonder what Draco is going to say -- or to remember, for that matter -- about the duel.

[-]Nominull13y190

I worry that Draco may be more or less written out of this fic - I can't imagine Lucius sending his son back into Voldemort's maw. There are other schools, even if none are as good.

[-]thelittledoctor13y150

Draco's going to want to go back, of course.

1Percent_Carbon13y

His father may make him want what is best for him, what his father thinks is best for him, that is. So maybe he won't want to go back, after all.

1Alex_Altair13y

I think it is meant that Harry set up Draco to be irreversibly autonomous with the Bayesian Conspiracy thing. And Lucius wants Malfoy to be the sincerely powerful scion of the Malfoy house, not just a puppet for himself, so he won't mess him too badly.

3Percent_Carbon13y

I fear you mistake your hopes for reasonable conclusions.

7kilobug13y

He did send his son to Dumbledore's maw, the one he believes burned alive his wife for no reason. I don't think sending him back with Harrymort there would bother him that much. It's not like Harrymort has anything to gain by killing Draco. The danger comes more from Hermione than from Harrymort, and it seems that she's scared enough so she'll never attempt anything against Draco. And Draco will be on guard. So... I think Draco will go back to Hogwarts.

1drethelin13y

Harry's debt to Lucius will guarantee his and Draco's interaction at some point in the future even if Draco never goes back to school.

0Alsadius13y

Both Voldemort and the girl who tried to murder him, at that. I suspect there'll still be letters between the two, though.

[-]Alsadius13y100

I find it quite astonishing how often I have to remind people that they're eleven years old.

6Alex_Altair13y

I didn't forget that (but sometimes I do). We can have a 12 year old be a slave to an 11 year old, but we can't have them get married?

7Alsadius13y

Welcome to feudalism.

5MartinB13y

Legal system do not have to be consistant. In Germany you can inherit since the time of conception, but still legally aborted afterwards.

2Alsadius13y

That is seriously weird.

5MartinB13y

Not that much. Both rules have their reasons. Real consistency is hard.

2Blueberry13y

They're not, mentally. But yeah, they may not be able to get legally married. Surprising that they can get legally enslaved, though.

4Nominull13y

Feudal vassalage is a few steps up from slavery, I think.

1Blueberry13y

Yes, but there's no verb that means to put someone into it...

7Eliezer Yudkowsky13y

Vassalize.

1Percent_Carbon13y

They are, mentally. The mind is the body, and this is a rationalist fic. Precocious children have a history of demonstrating they are not socio-emotionally prepared for some adult situations they are capable of confronting on an intellectual level. However smart or clever we are, we are still wet machines and we still grow in particular rhythms at particular times.

[-]ArisKatsaris13y100

What are the benefits of servitude over marriage?

Fewer shrieks of horror from their parents? Also Hermione doesn't need to change her name into Hermione Potter-Evans-Verres-Granger.

Did he actually say anything? Or did McGonagall come up with the idea right before?

He didn't. It was right before. Harry knew of only marriage as a way to induct Hermione into his House. McGonagall knew of a somewhat simpler way, and one less emotionally charged than marriage.

And then didn't mention to Harry that she was making Hermione his servant instead of his wife?

I think he realized it the moment he heard the words McGonagall was having Hermione say. Keep in mind that it's not as if McGonaggal realized Harry was considering marriage at all.

[-]ArisKatsaris13y100

Nah, snapping fingers doesn't possess meaning for the Wizengamot, that's what Harry is known for in Hogwarts. "Boo!" is better in the circumstances.

9buybuydandavis13y

I think it's better to tie his miracles in Hogwarts to his miracles elsewhere. Consistent product branding.

[-]AspiringKnitter13y100

Sorry, the reason for the stereotype is the fact that fanfiction is findable only on unmoderated internet archives where anyone can post. If you had to look on the internet for all your original fiction, you'd have the same problem. Also, it's in some ways harder to use someone else's voice and be bound by characters that maybe have traits you're scared to write about than to be able to write in your own voice and avoid certain kinds of characters.

But when you compare cherry-picked original fiction weeded through by editors until you get to read only a fraction of the total submitted for consideration and utterly unmoderated, undifferentiated fanfiction by good and bad authors alike side-by-side in the same archive, of course the original fic is going to be better.

1Anubhav13y

Kindle Store Or so I heard, at least.

[-]CronoDAS13y100

I was amazed that the readership collectively got almost every element of Harry’s solution, except for the monetary payment, and Harry spooking the Dementor instead of destroying it. (Looking up Philip Tetlock’s original experiment on taboo tradeoffs, taking the definition literally instead of reaching, and then reading the relevant section of Ch. 26 while keeping in mind Conservation of Detail, might have solved the monetary part.)

Well, if you make enough guesses, sometimes one of them will be partly right...

[-]NancyLebovitz13y100

My prediction doesn't seem to have paid off in anything but karma, so I'm wondering how Eliezer's clue about Harry seeing the members of the Wizingamot as player characters has played out or if we're going to see something of the sort in future chapters.

[-]Lavode13y210

The problem is that he did not - he treated them as a passive audience without any consideration of how they view him. So now some of them have reached the same conclusion as Lucius, and think he is a case of bodysnatching. Possession is a real possibility in the universe he inhabits, and he is showing all the signs. That is quite likely to get him killed by people with the best of intentions. At best, I am expecting kidnapping attempts aimed at extracting voldemort from his host. Also, Harry really should listen to Malfoy. Scaring Lucius is not a good idea.

5Eliezer Yudkowsky13y

That hadn't been meant to be a clue - it's fulfilled immediately after, when Harry starts seeing them as subjects of moral judgment.

1thomblake13y

I, for one, definitely read it as a clue. It seemed to me that in the chapter, Harry was trying to convince Lucius, while Lucius was performing debate-as-theater. Like Harry threatened Lucius because he thought Lucius would care, which was a bad move because Lucius would lose face by appearing threatened by a child. Lucius responded by calling Harry out on his "child" status, which would not serve to make Harry see his way, but would help sway the audience against Harry. And so I had speculated that Harry's solution would have to involve switching to a debate mode of discourse. Which may have had something to do with my ignoring the intended meaning of the title of the sequence, which suggests that he instead would find a compromise that Lucius would agree with.

[-]PeerInfinity13y90

"You can't put a price on a human life."

"I agree, but unfortunately reality has already put a price on human life, and that price is much less than 5 million dollars. By refusing to accept this, you are only refusing to make an informed decision about which lives to purchase."

0plu12y

Actually the estimate I heard was about 6 million dollars. And I'd argue the other way: That human life is the only thing you can put a price on, the basis for all trade. Whenever you cross a road, you're trading a slight chance of being run over for the value of being on the other side. When you eat something unhealthy, you're trading a portion of your life expectancy for the taste. So people do it every day, except they only trade in fractions of human life.

0DaFranker12y

Or in abstract expected larger numbers of human lives. Direct human-life trading in larger amounts is more unusual, and usually carries strong stigma (hostages, slave trafficking, etc.)

[-]CountlessArgonauts13y90

"Yes," said Dumbledore, as he descended to the bottom of the dark stone stairs. "Let us all go home, indeed." His blue eyes were locked on Harry, as hard as sapphires.

It suddenly occurs to me that Dumbledore has seen two interactions between Harry and a Dementor. In the first one, it almost destroys him. In the second, he casts a Patronus that destroys it. Neither would seem to provide the kind of evidence that you would need to confidently assume that other Dementors would run away from you if you said "Boo" to them.

So, is this enough evidence for Dumbledore to decide that he's wrong about who broke Bellatrix Black out of Azkaban?

[-]gwern13y80

No, as I pointed out, one would expect, based on its past performance, the dark side to come up with disastrous yet simple and effective solutions, and this expectation is another desiderata. Which that solution filled as well.

(A token 'dispel the Patronuses and make the Dementors eat people' is at least a gesture in the right direction, for all that I find Harry's belief he can cripple Aurors like that to be risible - if you yell at a pilot 'actually it doesn't run on the Bernouilli effect but spiral vortices' or whatever, does he immediately panic and fl... (read more)

[-]NancyLebovitz13y80

Do you feel the same way about published by known publishing houses fiction that based on other fiction? I'm thinking about The Once and Future King, Wicked, The Ayre Affair.....

8Alsadius13y

Gatekeepers raise average quality levels.

[-]pedanterrific13y70

You are here for the class that has been taught at Hogwarts for eight hundred years! Welcome to your first year of Battle Magic!

and

I'm the General of Sunshine, but even before that, I'm Hermione Granger of Ravenclaw, and I'm proud to be part of a House that's eight hundred years old.

and

You told me that no one had matched the four founders of Hogwarts. So it's been going on for at least eight centuries, then?

ETA: Oh, haha, maybe I should have just gone with

Harry winced. Hermione had been the one to explain to him about the Sorting Hat, but she

... (read more)

[-]ArisKatsaris13y70

Only Quirrel and Dumbledore know of it, since even the three accompanying Aurors were False-Memory-Charmed.

We don't know what the cover story was that Dumbledore thought up to justify the lost Dementor.

[-]ArisKatsaris13y70

Honest dilemma: Should Hermione decide to get the memories of casting the Blood-chilling Charm obliviated?

On one hand, one would think that messing even more with Hermione's mind should be a no-no. On the other hand, we're pretty sure it's a false memory, and it seems grossly unfair for her to have to remember attempting to commit a murder that she didn't truly attempt.

Second question: Regardless of what Hermione should do, will she so decide it?

Third question: If she doesn't so decide, will some helpful other person override said choice for her sake and obliviate her anyway?

5Desrtopa13y

If she does get the memory erased, she's going to be awfully confused when someone else inevitably brings it up again. Edit: it occurs to me that you probably only meant the memory of performing the charm itself, not the memory of being put on trial for murder. But even if they did that, I suspect she'd imagine something just as bad to fill the space, knowing what was supposed to go in it.

3buybuydandavis13y

If she wanted to do that, I'd have the memory extracted and saved as evidence.

[-]ShardPhoenix13y70

There are probably laws against busting people out of Azkaban too.

[-]buybuydandavis13y70

There are so many ways for Harry to get money - I hope the debt doesn't become a major plot point. If there are downsides to the debt in terms of obligations to Lucius, Harry should just get the money and be done with it.

If the Supreme Mugwump doesn't want Harry to be indebted to Lucius, shouldn't he be able to call in a few favors and have it paid off tomorrow? There's the general blood debt to Harry. The general goodwill to Harry. The desire by others not to have the Boy Who Lived in debt to Malfoy.

There should be enough people in the Wizarding world w... (read more)

[-]David_Gerard13y170

Get him an internet connection in Hogwarts and play the market using his time turner.

Early '90s. That'd be a JANET connection, which was an academic network. I expect AOL or Compuserve might be possible. We're talking about the mists of prehistory here, i.e. before 1995. Heck, it was even before the National Lottery was operating in the UK (that started 1994). The stock market would be playable, if he had a suitable adult to front for him.

No, how he makes serious money in the muggle world in 1991 Britain may require actual research.

5SkyDK13y

Eh no... Harry has Mining++ also known as partial transfiguration. Now EY didn't believe that to be enough so he also equipped Harry with an invisibility cloak a bag AND a suitcase of holding. If Harry is really pressed for cash and some rules against arbitrage, stock market manipulation, insurance fraud (which he should be able to do to an amount that's not even funny to think about) exist, he still has one glaringly easy way of earning shit tons. He should be able to, as soon as he is allowed to use magic outside school (which IIRC is at 17 which is before his last year at Hogwarts' starts; the 31st of July to be exact) of doing the following: a) Robin Hood his way through pretty much anything (Invis+teleport is an old classic) b) mine diamonds/gold/other valuable resources by using partial transfiguration, invisibility and if need be Apparation.Some mines in Somalia are just waiting for a wizard to abuse them... c) and of course just straight up gambling. Sincerely: this stuff doesn't even require a lot of thinking. He could also just do some honest transport business of high quality wares... Teleportation is a whole lot faster than anything else I can think of.

4Shmi13y

There was virtually no online trading for individual investors until about 1994. You had to phone your full-service or discount broker and talk to him (or very rarely her) to make a trade.

3Alsadius13y

The Grangers are comfortable, but two million 1991!pounds is well beyond the capabilities of any dentist I'm familiar with.

7daenerys13y

They could happily provide a laundering service of sorts. If the goblins get suspicious of where Harry got the muggle money (which he will supposedly get via one of many ways outlined on this thread), he could just say that the Grangers gave it to him to rescue his daughter-- He earns money through them (stocks in their name, or whatever), and they turn around and give it back to him to trade into galleons for the Hermione-Rescue Debt. I doubt the goblins would look into how MUGGLES managed to earn so much money. Especially if they already seemed to be relatively well-off.

[-]pedanterrific13y70

Pretty closely, I think; we have

Emmeline wasn't a member of the Order of the Phoenix any more, they had disbanded after the end of the last war. And during the war, she'd known, they'd all known, that Director Crouch had quietly approved of their off-the-books battle.

Director Bones wasn't Crouch.

and

[...] while Amelia tried to weigh her own thoughts. She must not leave this prison alive... Albus Dumbledore wouldn't turn into Bartemius Crouch without a strong reason.

[-]Percent_Carbon13y70

I'll see your credential challenge and raise you the inevitable creation of immortal boredom.

[-]Osuniev12y60

re-reading chapter 76 made me realise the prophecy could not be about Voldemort at all :

Let's look at this prophecy in detail :

"The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches,"

Vanquish, as Snape said, is a strange word to describe a baby accidentally toasting Voldemort, especially since we have evidence that this might not be what really happened. "Dark Lord" is used by EY quite loosely, and not as something specifically relating to Voldemort. Indeed, Dumbledore seems to worry that he could be this Dark Lord. Now, if we ste... (read more)

2Osuniev10y

Well, so much for that !

0player_0311y

Harry left "a portion of his life" (not an exact quote) in Azkaban, and apparently it will remain there forever. That could be the remnant that Death would fail to destroy. Anyway, Snape drew attention to the final line in the prophecy. It talked about two different spirits that couldn't exist in the same world, or perhaps two ingredients that cannot exist in the same cauldron. That's not Harry and Voldemort; that's Harry and Death. I mean, Harry has already sworn to put an end to death. It's how he casts his patronus. He's a lot less sure about killing Voldemort, and would prefer not to, if given the choice.

0Osuniev11y

In light of chapters 96 I would update this chance to 45 %.

2Osuniev11y

Putting my wager where my mouth is : http://predictionbook.com/predictions/20831

0gwern12y

I only count one defiance there. Or did you mean the brothers plural accounted for three defiances? But the other two brothers just die horribly after making ill-chosen requests.

0Osuniev12y

Well, each of them successively defied Death by asking a gift from it. Still far-fetched, I admit.

[-]nshepperd13y60

It looks like the pair of you are having trouble communicating. Would you like to:

Taboo "pointless", "futile" and "lose",
Hug the query?

[-]75th13y60

Almost all the possible consequences of Quirrell's plot with Hermione might have helped Quirrellmort somehow:

Hermione goes to Azkaban and Harry goes permanently Dark.
Hermione goes to Azkaban and Harry goes permanently Light, killing himself to destroy it.
Harry saves Hermione, further antagonizing Draco's father and thereby Draco himself.
The wedge is driven further between Harry and Dumbledore.
Harry looks very Dark in front of all of wizarding Britain, losing him Light allies.
Harry looks very powerful in front of all of wizarding Britain, gaining him

... (read more)

2Jonathan_Elmer13y

Every possible result is a negative for Harry when his closest ally is accused of murdering his next closest ally. Even if he "wins" it is going to hurt, and it did. I can't square that with the motives of someone who wants to make Harry dark and strong. It is a big risk, especially when you are stuck in an interrogation cell for the grand finale.

[-]ArisKatsaris13y60

Thoughts on the whole "guess the solution" situation from last chapter.

When I first reached the end of the chapter and the "You have 5 days to find the solution" bit, for some frantic moments I was worried that Eliezer would let get Hermione go to Azkaban if we weren't sufficiently clever to find the solution. It seemed rather unlikely, because we didn't seem to be so very near the end of the whole of HPMOR (and surely Hermione's effective killing would have major repercussions).. but I had already known about the similar situation in T... (read more)

[-]Alsadius13y60

"Squib" is a nonmagical child of magical parents, at least in canon. MoR seems to be using it as a genetic marker, which I'm honestly not sure is compatible with canon.

(Now that I think about it, if Harry's genetic theory is correct, doesn't a squib child of a wizarding couple imply that Mom was getting some on the side?)

9Lavode13y

.. Not nessesarily. I just had an amusing thought. The number one use of polyjuice is quite obviously as a sex toy, right? Depending on how deep the transformation goes, it is entirely possible that the genetic lines of wizardry if anyone ever tested them would be enormously confusing, and a lot of squibs are technically the decendants of Jane Russell and Rudolph Valentino.

8Percent_Carbon13y

Go, Mom.

2Normal_Anomaly13y

Probably! That or a mutation, anyway. But a few weeks ago I read about an interesting situation * in which a parent with AB blood and one with A blood can have an O child without adultery, because of another gene that sometimes suppresses the A and B antigens. That wouldn't allow for varying power levels with blood purity, and would sort of be still "one thing that makes you a wizard." * I can't remember the name, and would appreciate if someone could remind me.

2loserthree13y

Not necessarily. Genetic code changes in ways that do not make an nonviable specimen now and then. Adultery is more likely, though.

0Anubhav13y

Accurate deduction! Here, have a cookie.

[-]Alicorn13y60

In canonical!HP, halfbloods are wizards/witches with one witch/wizard parent and one Muggle parent. "Dad's a Muggle, Mum's a witch. Bit of a nasty shock for him when he found out." Muggleborns have two Muggle parents.

Sometimes people with a Muggleborn and a pureblood for parents are called halfbloods (Harry is one of these). Finer gradations aren't referred to (I'm not sure what Harry and Ginny's kids would be called).

[-]see13y60

But you probably can't do it over the Internet in 1991.

1ajuc13y

Oh, right. It's funny how we(I) take some things for granted.

[-]mjr13y60

Good bit, though a bit of a hodgepodge. I presume the real culprit will be found, but that doesn't necessarily counter the debt - the Wizengamot would have to agree, and the truth could be found out in a way that leaves little actual proof, even aside issues of Wizengamot's fairness. I'll be disappointed if paying the debt turns out to be too arduous though, but of course depending on the methods chosen there may be side effects. (One way would be for Draco to accept a counterdebt, having been convinced of the truth of the matter and seeing that being on g... (read more)

[-]pedanterrific13y60

Why, indeed, would wizards with enough status and wealth to turn their hands to almost any endeavor, choose to spend their lives fighting over lucrative monopolies on ink importation

Oh god, why did you have to go there. Whyyyy

Edit: at least you didn't mention the squid

2Alsadius13y

Am I missing something?

9thelittledoctor13y

This. But gaze not overlong into that particular abyss. Edit: In retrospect, TvTropes itself is probably the bigger abyss of the two. So don't gaze overlong into that one either.

4FAWS13y

Could you summarize to spare us from gazing into that abyss?

2Eliezer Yudkowsky13y

Wow, I'd totally forgotten where I got that from. But in this particular case, it's deserved, considering that a certain idea I first encountered in PKH is an element of HPMOR. (You probably don't want to read through PKH trying to figure it out. No, seriously, it's figureable from the main text and PKH isn't going to help much.)

2pedanterrific13y

Is it 'xrrc gur fbhepr bs lbhe vzzbegnyvgl va bhgre fcnpr'?

2Eliezer Yudkowsky13y

Was that in PKH?

2pedanterrific13y

It's mentioned on the Tropes page under How Unscientific. So not that, huh?

1thelittledoctor13y

Other than "cheroybbq snzvyvrf znvagnva gurve jrnygu guebhtu neovgenel zbabcbyvrf tenagrq ol gur Jvmratnzbg"?

0LucasSloan13y

Jryy vg'f rvgure gung Uneel'f qnexfvqr vf gur sentzrag bs Ibyqrzbeg'f fbhy be gung Qhzoyrqber'f rivy.

2Alsadius13y

Ye gods.

0Daniel_Molloy13y

Oh dear, I cannot stop gazing. It's actually quite a fun read so far, although it seems more like a sloppy first draft than a polished novel. I guess that's to be expected given the lack of editors in fanfic - I've clearly been spoiled by HPMOR and Luminosity.

1thelittledoctor13y

I confess I rather enjoyed the part where Snape's head exploded. There's a certain window of "So bad it's good" in there, before you get to the "So bad it's horrible". As I said in another comment, it's not bad at the start.

2pedanterrific13y

Yes, and be glad of it.

1thelittledoctor13y

Yeah, was that a Partially Kissed Hero reference? For that matter, from what source was "the Ree" drawn? Totoro's from a Miyazaki movie...

5pedanterrific13y

DO NOT SPEAK THE NAME The Ree are from Nobody Dies, a Neon Genesis Evangelion fanfiction.

[-]Eliezer Yudkowsky13y120

And Hogwarts has ventilation ducts large enough to fit a basilisk!

[-][anonymous]13y170

In fairness, circulating air in a castle whose geometry is best represented by an arbitrarily connected graph (not necessarily acyclic), is a non-trivial engineering challenge. After a few student asphyxiated, they may just have gone a little overboard.

[-]Eliezer Yudkowsky13y170

I now declare this to be MoR!canon. (That large magical dwellings in general have large highly-connected, possibly magical air-ducts, by tradition, to prevent the occasional cases where somebody asphyxiated; and that Salazar used this as his excuse for why Hogwarts's ventilation ducts had to be so large.)

[-]pedanterrific13y110

Aguamenti creates water out of nothing, which you can drink. The Bubble-Head Charm could, in theory, work some way other than creating thin air out of thin air, but personally I doubt it does.

2thelittledoctor13y

I never, in Canon, got quite such an impression of Eerie Alien Geometries from the castle as I do in MoR. Thankfully Event Horizon hadn't come out in 1991, or I'd wager a lot of Muggleborns would be very uncomfortable in the upper floors.

8Alicorn13y

Snakes can get through spaces much smaller than it looks like they should be able to. It doesn't seem ruled out that a magic snake can do that to a greater extent. So this implies big ductwork but not enormous ductwork.

0brilee13y

The ventilation ducts in large buildings are roughly 1m^2 in cross-sectional area, branching out to ducts that are roughly.1m^2 in cross-sectional area. A python is 6 meters long and has a cross-sectional area of .015m^2. Assuming the aspect ratio of the snake body stays roughly constant, a basilisk is 15 meters long, and would have a cross-sectional area of .094m^2. Barely enough to through ventilation ducts.

0MixedNuts13y

I think basiliks are a little thicker than pythons (from the second movie) and much longer than 15 m (from awesomeness).

[-]thelittledoctor13y60

I think he has six and a quarter years to turn zero galleons into sixty thousand - I interpreted it as him having to pay what he could immediately.

Personally, I'd be inclined to just Imperius Lucius into cancelling the rest of the debt, then obliviate him and memory charm him into remembering doing it of his own free will, but perhaps I'm a little more Dark Harry than Light Harry.

[-]Xachariah13y290

He's got a time machine and the stock market exists.

Give him a few days a month outside of Hogwarts (or just a telephone/television) and he could own every gold mine, hell, own everything in the muggle world. I could pull that off with just a time machine.

[-]thelittledoctor13y130

Why on earth did this not immediately occur to me? This is usually my first thought in time-travel stories. Clearly my dislike of Lucius is clouding my judgement.

9[anonymous]13y

What happens if multiple wizards try to Time Turner the stock market? Information can't travel back more than six hours in time. So if Wizard #1 sees a stock price falling, and goes back in time to sell, and Wizard #2 sees effects of that, and goes back in time to sell, weird things happen. I'm not sure what the six-hour limitation on information actually does, though. We see Bones asking Dumbledore, "I have information which I learned four hours into the future, Albus. Do you still want it?" Dumbledore weighs the value of the information against the value of going back in time more than 2 hours. However, if he rejects that information, and goes back in time 3 hours, he still brings back the knowledge that Bones will have information to share. How exactly does that work?

7TimS13y

The impression I got was that the Time Turner would fail to work. Thus, if Bones tells D, then D uses his Time Turner, he only goes back 2 hours. That's an interesting thought, actually. Can you prevent a person from going back in time by essentially giving them information from the future, even if they don't know it is information from the future?

8Asymmetric13y

Unrelated: They did that in a movie called Primer, which I recommend to people who like MOR and deciphering probably-correct engineering-speak.

0Blueberry13y

They do stock market stuff in Primer?

0pjeby13y

Yes. And it leads to... complications. Actually, everything they try to do with time in that movie leads to complications, but almost never in the straightforward way you'd expect. For example, it's not the stock market manipulation itself that causes problems.

7wedrifid13y

And naturally he'd start off with seed money from a single lottery win. More than one would start getting suspicious but if he picks the largest paying lottery out there when it has rolled over to jackpot a few times that gives him enough to start the ball rolling.

[-]Joshua Hobbes13y110

Most muggleborns may not be able to do calculus, but they know about lotteries. The ministry would keep tabs on this stuff.

[-]Alsadius13y110

Which is why he wouldn't win top prize - 5/6 numbers is usually a couple hundred grand, that's tons of seed money.

4thelittledoctor13y

If he picked the right lottery he'd only need to do that once, period. There are many lotteries paying out well over two million pounds... But I suspect Locke is right on this count.

2wedrifid13y

By a couple of orders of magnitude (highest in the UK was 150m or so pounds, US has gone up to $390M).

3David_Gerard13y

The National Lottery didn't start until 1994. I'm reasonably sure there were such things you could win big on, but I don't think there were any you could win that big on.

1MarkusRamikin13y

I don't think that's how time-travel works in this story. Aka DO NOT MESS WITH TIME. It's already been stated to be impossible to change your test scores in Hogwards, I think that rules out making fortunes with time travel too, which many people would be highly motivated to do if it were possible; that's not what the world looks like in the story. I sure hope Harry gets out of this mess somehow, though. The last few chapters have been painful. EDIT: how do you use strike-out formatting around here? Is it even possible?

6wedrifid13y

It is. Winning on the stockmarket with this time-travel system is barely any different (in terms of mere physics) than using it as a sleep aid. In a fantasy world this ad hoc most of the wizarding population has to be holding the idiot ball most of the time for things to be as they look in the story.

5ArisKatsaris13y

In the "DO NOT MESS WITH TIME" case, he tried to manipulate time-loop paradoxes in his favour. In what Xachariah suggests, he'd just be manipulating the stock markets, not deliberately attempting to construct time paradoxe. Therefore I don't think it qualifies as "messing with time".

[-]faul_sname13y100

He has a hundred in his back yard. Worst comes to worst, he arbitrages that up to 60k.

Edit: or time machine+stock market. In retrospect, that's a much better solution.

5thelittledoctor13y

Yes, I rather doubt that he will have trouble for lack of clever plans.

3Alsadius13y

It's easy to do an arbitrage chain a couple times, but people will start to get suspicious fast. I doubt he can go x600 as trivially as that.

[-]see13y110

April 1991 price of silver was $3.9707/oz troy, gold was $358.38/oz troy. That's a 90:1 silver-gold ratio, ounce to ounce.

Now, the Sickle-Galleon ratio is 17:1. But a Galleon is larger than a Sickle, by a significant amount, as can be seen here; , and gold is denser than silver, by a significant amount. Assuming the coins are similar thickness, the Galleon is about 1.7 times larger than the Sickle, and about 3.1 times heavier. So the ratio by weight is around 5.4:1 silver-to-gold.

That means each cycle of arbitrage is a multiplication by, well, we'll round down to 16 for various transaction costs in our Fermi estimate. 100 Galleons becomes 1,600 after one cycle, and 1,600 becomes 25,600 after cycle 2.

Okay, that "couple times" didn't quite get us all the way there from 100. Harry needs to manage to get his hands on (considering the uncertainties on transaction costs) more than 234 but almost certainly less than 300 Galleons and run through the arbitrage cycle twice to get the 60,000 galleons.

[-]wedrifid13y110

It's easy to do an arbitrage chain a couple times, but people will start to get suspicious fast.

Suspicious? Sure, but will they care? He is dealing with Gringotts, or more specifically with specific goblins at Gringotts. They will be following their job specifications, probably their legal obligation, giving their company a profit and adhering to tradition. Gringotts wins, Harry wins, law is followed.

The people who lose are anyone who has invested in wizard cash (which is being inflated). But they aren't involved in the transaction and don't lose enough or rapidly enough that they would object before he has finished farming. In fact they only start experiencing negative effects once Harry starts spending.

5faul_sname13y

In the early 1990s, gold was around $400/oz and silver was around $5/oz. Which is an 80:1 price difference. Considering that in the wizarding world, it is only 17:1, he can make about 4.5:1 each time. 5 times of doing that with 100 galleons will yield 180000 galleons, which he needs 60k of. Shouldn't be too much trouble. It might be even better, considering the possibility that there might be more bounties he can collect.

2kilobug13y

What I'm more worried about are the implications on the Muggle side, and the fact it could endanger (even if lightly) the Statute of Secrecy. That is likely to draw political troubles from the wizarding world, and may be very well ruled illegal.

[-]Percent_Carbon13y50

Perhaps you're expected to gracefully retract at some point.

I think the striken out posts can't be further down voted and you are expected to use that tool to defend yourself against excessive down votes. That is entirely a guess and I am new here.

4ArisKatsaris13y

It's a fact that stricken out posts can't be further downvoted, but I don't know about being expected to use that tool as a form of defense. This was implemented because previously some people just deleted comments that got them lots of downvotes, and this caused disruptions in the flow of the conversation (one could no longer see what people were responding to).

[-]Percent_Carbon13y50

Harry has a father who is quite respectable. He could act through his father.

1Alsadius13y

I was in an equity mindset, where the rules are much tighter, because the underlying assets are so much more volatile. Doing that sort of leverage there would require you to post some pretty hefty collateral(likely beyond the means of Prof. Verres) and be in a low-regulation jurisdiction for it to even be legal(which the UK is not).

[-]Eugine_Nier13y50

(in the relevant sense, this refers to why don't various charities just rain megatons of food, water, schools and hospitals from the sky, given how much private 1st world citizens have to spare)

This is much harder to do then you seem to think.

0Multiheaded13y

The linked article does point out the difficulties of raising overall quality of life and human development. Is that what you're saying is harder to do than just throwing money at the problem? If so, I agree completely (and join the anti-PC crowd in suggesting that the very best of currently conceivable general solutions for Africa is reinstating colonialism). However, I was talking specifically about satisfying the most elementary physical needs of individual destitute Africans (sustenance, health, peace), not grand questions of policy or structural change. Why I took such a narrow view is because I feel that pushing the self-sufficiency, ground-up angle when talking about ways to fix the whole mess is quite limited and even hypocritical; maybe sharing a little of our wealth to guarantee those needs for everyone (and enforcing birth control, and dealing with a whole separate can of worms, but that's a problem with every approach) could indeed ameliorate the ongoing nightmare while our social engineering looks for a way to kickstart the aforementioned self-sufficiency. Yes, increasing dependency and taking away responsibility is a clear instrumental evil, and according to many just evil, period. But if we could first stop people from 1) being born into suffering to do little but increase that very suffering and 2) dying quickly and miserably, maybe that's worth the tradeoff. Yes, I'm exploring a view I know to be naive.

3see13y

When there is hunger, there is power in controlling the distribution of food. When people have power from something, they do not simply allow outsiders to come in and take it away without a fight. You can ship all the food you like for free to African ports; the people of the country itself will still go hungry, because the people with guns will control the distribution to maximize their power. If a man is intentionally starving and beating his children, you can't solve their hunger and bruises by giving him material goods. You need to remove his power over the kids and put the kids in care of someone who won't abuse them. If you want to grant the "the most elementary physical needs of individual destitute Africans (sustenance, health, peace)", what you will have to do is overthrow their governments and install colonial governors. There currently seem to be few volunteers for the job.

1Multiheaded13y

Yes, this problem is quite obvious, and yes, I'm in favor of full-scale colonialism, but couldn't a heavier presence by UN/coalition-of-the-willing peacekeepers, with powers to override local authorities when it's needed to prevent open violence and abuse, also keep the scum that floats to the top there in check? What's the tactical record for peacekeeping operations that had a reasonably broad mandate for use of force? (Hmm, here's one account. My cached thought that a "firm hand" brought decent results in Somalia appears to be confirmed.) ...Of course I realize how unlikely any international body would be to approve such powers against the protests of an "independent" local regime (Somalia being an unusual case in that regard), so such policing of aid-receiving countries would have to be carried out unilaterally and without foreign oversight by whatever nation could be willing to implement it. Which creates a power dynamic that's basically colonialism. Which, again, would IMO be quite OK with purely selfish intentions and better yet with benevolent ones, but should be done openly anyway for clear generic reasons.

[-]drethelin13y50

Am I the only one that doesn't think Harry is going to pay off Lucius as fast as possible? Unless the demands on Harry are seriously onerous this is a superb opportunity to learn about the most powerful family and one of the most powerful wizards in Magical Britain. From a story perspective, it gives Eliezer an easy way to add difficulty to Harry's life at any point and a good chance to keep writing about villains like Lucius instead of boring villains like the Jugson kid. I think Harry will end up working with Lucius to uncover who framed Hermione.

2see13y

I don't expect that he'll pay off Lucius as fast as possible; I expect he'll pay off Lucius fast enough to keep things from being seriously onerous, whatever rate that turns out to need to be.

[-]Nominull13y50

I would say that the "most wise" one among Dumbledore, Quirrell, and Harry is definitely not the one whose model does not account for observed reality.

6ChrisHallquist13y

Harry is the wisest because he can notice his confusion.

2loserthree13y

... I'd like to change my answer to this.

6wedrifid13y

I would have said Quirrell buy far. Your thoughts?

4loserthree13y

When we look at another person's action and assume a simple reason, "not their role," "lacking serious ambition," or "crazy, just crazy," we make an excuse not to spend more time modeling their motivations. That may be useful and efficient. I think the author believes it is most wise to avoid the easy answers and continue to examine the problem.

[-]Incorrect13y50

they also believe that Merlin fought the dread Totoro and imprisoned the Ree.

Oh god where are they being held?

3Multiheaded13y

Goddamnit, I could never understand what Eliezer sees in those silly Eva crossovers. I've looked at both S&WH40k and this one, and both felt like pointless abuse of a brilliant story to me. /vent

1Incorrect13y

It's funny to read a bit of something ridiculous now and then.

0loserthree13y

Indeed. But they do go on about it for such a long time. Multiheaded, you might give this one a few mintues. It's less than 20,000 words. If you like it, imagine wishing it were longer. That's what it's like for me, anyway. (Or was it specifically the crossoverness that you didn't care for? Because there's no crossover in the one I linked, just a briefly defiant Shinji.)

3Randaly13y

I believe that passage was implying that the wizards in question were very credulous- unable "to distinguish the truth among a hundred plausible lies."

[-]Incorrect13y180

So the Ree are still loose then!?!?

[-]Eliezer Yudkowsky13y110

Heee~eeey!

[-]loserthree13y100

Um. Hi, Rei.

We'd, uh, we'd like you to give Mr. Yudkowsky back, if you don't mind.

4linkhyrule513y

Whatcha doin'?

5CronoDAS13y

More likely they never existed in the first place.

3Percent_Carbon13y

A world should be so fortunate.

3Anubhav13y

What on earth are the Ree? Google turns up nothing.

8pedanterrific13y

They're from this.

[-]Eliezer Yudkowsky13y50

Poll to see whether the speculation made the chapter reading experience better or worse.

[-]Eliezer Yudkowsky13y640

Vote up if you think all the speculation got in the way of the chapter itself.

[-]Joshua Hobbes13y310

Five days was too long, IMO. If we only had 24 hours I would have enjoyed it much more.

[-]Asymmetric13y140

Considering that at least part of the correct solution was found within 24 hours, I think you're right, Locke. It might affect accessibility, though -- I know I would be sad if I logged on only to find that the discussion had closed already.

Having read through the speculation, I even found most of the chapter quite anticlimactic. Recognizing the correct predictions removed all the tension, since MOR's tension relies so much on plotting.

That said, though, reading through the discussion gave me a harmless and very insightful lesson into how predictions work. I learned what makes a prediction probable versus plausible, in a way that not only allows me to understand it, but to think about how I would apply it to my life (I hadn't really internalized that the percents of all possible outcomes have to add to a hundred, even though in hindsight that's fairly obvious. I also learned about the betting-real-money threshold).

All in all, despite getting in the way of the chapter, it was a nice, closed-environment rationalist lesson. Thank you for prompting the discussion, Eliezer!

2Logos0113y

Dude who came up with the blood debt answer did so in about fifteen minutes, actually. I was one of the ones (in #lesswrong anyhow) who suggested that Harry would destroy the Dementor for the shock-value. Turns out EY had Harry both go over and under that prediction.

7LucasSloan13y

Agreed. I initially felt a lot of tension as to the answer, and it didn't fade upon a day or two's speculation, but I did not feel that tension when I read the chapter. I definitely think that a wait over major cliffhangers is indicated, but a long one (even 5 days) cannot sustain the tension.

1Rejoyce13y

Five days was perfect in my perspective. To be honest I thought the speculation had the potential to be very fun and mentally stimulating but the way we did it was completely wrong. What ended up happening was everyone proposed own theories left and right and in the end only a few people got some of the answer right, whereas if we collaborated better we could have ended up with an entire community who guessed most of the answer right. Makes for more overall happy.

6MarkusRamikin13y

After considering, I feel it got in the way because people got so much right. It made Harry's dark side much less awesome. Instead of being, as usual, impressed, I felt more like "why did he even need a mysterious Dark Side for this? And how did he not come up with it in all the time while trying-to-do-the-impossible before the trial?" Which is unfair, but it's not clear fair unbiased thinking that decides for us whether or not we enjoy something...

[-]Eliezer Yudkowsky13y370

Vote up if you think that the experience of reading the chapter was better for all the speculation.

3[anonymous]13y

I would say it was, but only because you managed to include elements of the speculation while still thinking of plots and turns that I did not see speculated. With the amount of speculation I participated in, it felt like an excellent emotional roller coaster, which I will try to describe with a few anecdotal sentences. "Yes, that idea has been referenced!" "Yes, that idea has been referenced as well! Multiple points, I knew it, I was expecting multiple points to come up, I should have posted that instead of remaining silent." "Oh, I should have seen that! In hindsight it feels like could have guessed that." "Wait, THAT wasn't the true answer?" "Wait, WHAT? I never would have guessed this!" "He's surprised, but it made perfect sense!" "Heehee, he even referenced that as well!" But it seems like it was only that good because you managed to narrowly outwit the amount of effort I had to put into it and the amount of collective thought I had taken the time to read. I feel like if I had been speculating to an overly large extent that I wouldn't have been able to consider it as a story, but that if I hadn't been speculating at all I wouldn't have gotten the twists and turns it was taking. So while I personally would vote for this option, I think I can see several reasons why it wouldn't necessarily work for other people in the same way it did for me, assuming I'm right about my mental pictures of other readers.

[-]JoshuaZ13y310

It did make it better. But please don't make people solve a puzzle to get a happy ending. The downside of getting only a sad ending if people fail at that is too high. Not just in terms of how many people will get negative utility from that, but also it will substantially reduce how many people will be willing to recommend the story to others (once it is finished). The potential downside to that is simply too large.

4Percent_Carbon13y

Nah. We can do this.

3JoshuaZ13y

And if we don't would you then want him to go through with it?

0thomblake13y

It's not a real challenge, otherwise.

0JoshuaZ13y

It is a challenge whether or not we get rewarded/punished for success/failure.

1thomblake13y

Emphasis on "real". That was meant to evoke Ishtar's way of thinking in Just another day in utopia.

[-]wedrifid13y190

Where is the vote that "all the speculation was a better than the chapter itself"?

That's no slight on the chapter, mind. The discussion was both entertaining and useful.

9gwern13y

I have to say, I enjoyed the process of coming up with and justifying my 'throw Dumbledore under the bus' theory a lot more than I actually enjoyed the chapter, which wound up looking like a mish-mosh (a debt and messing with Dementors and Hermione joining the House of Potter and foreshadowing)...

[-]Eugine_Nier13y100

I enjoyed the process of coming up with and justifying my 'throw Dumbledore under the bus' theory

That's a very bad mental habit to get into. As Bryan Caplan explains here.

The key difference between a normal utilitarian and a Leninist: When a normal utilitarian concludes that mass murder would maximize social utility, he checks his work! He goes over his calculations with a fine-tooth comb, hoping to discover a way to implement beneficial policy changes without horrific atrocities. The Leninist, in contrast, reasons backwards from the atrocities that emotionally inspire him to the utilitarian argument that morally justifies his atrocities.

2gwern13y

I don't think I wanted to get rid of Dumbledore beforehand; but the solution dealt with all the desiderata in one single stroke, as opposed to the actual chapter which was an unsatisfying potpourri of solutions. Cute quote anyway.

8SkyDK13y

It was great! It also allowed me to test a couple of thesis of generating solutions. The closest I got was doing something completely different than working directly on the generating of solutions; I can't remember the name of the theory stating that this should be the case, and while having it strengthened is somewhat disheartening it is nevertheless a useful piece of information. Now if I weren't so bad at shaving, I might even remember to use Occam's razor next time and reduce "Harry marries Hermione" to "Harry makes Hermione part of house Potter". Still much in the ways of the force have I to learn ;) Only defence of my marriage theory was that I wasn't quite sure that people could just be adopted into houses. Even thought it makes perfect sense, having seen it in action. I suspect/expect you'll write what power Lucius can legally claim over Harry sometimes soon? Also I learned to actually look up the experiments you referred to... All in all thank you for a highly entertaining and inspiring chapter!

5[anonymous]13y

I enjoyed every bit of the speculation but then finding out that some of the speculation was correct disappointed me. I would approve of a repeat if you made the puzzle sufficiently hard that nobody figures it out.

[-]JoshuaZ13y170

Strongly disagree. Puzzles that can't be solved aren't puzzles, they are authors being obnoxious. There's no talent in making an unsolvable puzzle any more than there is in making a Zendo rule that no one can solve. And there's no fun in it for most people either. We shouldn't be in a situation where at the last minute we're informed that no one but a dark wizard would put mustard on top of the sauerkraut (Standard TVTropes warning).

[-]RobertLumley13y100

It was disappointing to me because it wasn't the first time I'd heard the solution. It was like I had a spoiler for the chapter, because I was reasonably confident as to what it was. And while I've seen research linked to on LW that says spoilers don't decrease enjoyment, I definitely find they do, at least for me.

It was redeeming, however, that more complications were added on top of the imperius!debt. If it had simply been Harry winning with it, I think would have found the chapter dull.

3[anonymous]13y

So it should be a completely fair puzzle that nobody solves. If Harry Potter can do the impossible, then why not.

5JoshuaZ13y

How do you determine that a puzzle is completely fair and isn't solved? Is that a meaningful category?

4[anonymous]13y

In retrospect you're not supposed to think "well, how was I supposed to know about the sauerkraut" but "oh, that makes sense, I wish I'd thought of that."

3JoshuaZ13y

So the key is to make the puzzle only seem obvious in retrospect? This sounds like you want puzzles that actively trigger hindsight bias. Not exactly a promotion of rationality.

6roystgnr13y

Not hindsight bias, just an asymmetrically easy verification. Imagine a large subset sum problem: answers can all be found logically, it's very hard to find an answer, and it's very easy to verify an answer. Any such problem can trigger hindsight bias of the form "that clearly would have been easy to solve; I just wasn't trying", but that's a flaw of the biased person not the problem.

2[anonymous]13y

Well, not obvious in retrospect, that would be silly. I really don't understand how you're arguing with me about the fact that puzzles can be easy or hard without adding sauerkraut.

8JoshuaZ13y

The issue isn't that puzzles can be easy are hard. The issue is that a good hard puzzle is still solvable. It takes no talent to make a puzzle that no one solves. The difficulty in making a puzzle that's worthwhile is making it in the narrow band of puzzles that are tough enough to be interesting but are still solvable.

4[anonymous]13y

Right, and what I'm saying is make the puzzle hard enough that nobody figures the whole things out, spoiling the chapter when I actually read it. It's okay if people think of partial solutions, but when the whole chapter is basically posts A, B, and C glued together then it's a disappointment.

1JoshuaZ13y

If part can't be figured out then it falls into that category, doesn't it? I'm confused by what you are saying and wonder if there's some set of terminological differences here. Perhaps we should carefully define our terms?

2[anonymous]13y

I don't think this argument is worth it, it looks fairly silly in retrospect. Really, how to classify the puzzle isn't the important part; what's important is the outcome I consider favorable. That outcome involves plenty of discussion and theories (I have no complaints in that regard) and then a solution that is better than any of them. And really, come to think of it, this chapter did deliver on this in some ways. If only because the events of the chapter consisted of several moves, while the theories only tried to predict Harry's first move. So I feel more content now having thought things over than I was initially. And you are probably right that most ways to "fix" the problem would end up making things worse: most puzzles that people write are bad because they are too hard, not because they are easy. Anyway, it strikes me that there are more interesting things to discuss, like wondering whether Mr. Hat-&-Cloak is actually Imperiused Flitwick polyjuiced into Lucius Malfoy. So hopefully there is not too much confusion left over on your end.

3Alex_Altair13y

Next to the thumbs up and thumbs down karma buttons, should be placed a snapping finger icon.

4Eponymuse13y

I hope you write the ending you want, rather than playing games to see which ending we will earn.

1thomblake13y

Not to worry, I'd expect that both endings will be written, and the game will just determine which one gets labelled "True Ending" in big, friendly letters.

0MarkusRamikin13y

That somehow doesn't stop me from worrying.

4thomblake13y

In actuality, I think it made reading the next chapter slightly worse, but made the intervening time much better. And more importantly, I'm pretty sure I learned something about how to solve these sorts of puzzles properly, which is much more relevant.

4Alsadius13y

I read the speculation, glommed onto the right answer when someone else brought it up, and then got amused by progressively more wacky theories for three days. I don't think the speculation got in the way, per se, but it's sort of anticlimactic for the answer you regard as obvious to be the correct one. The money bit was a nice twist, though.

3FAWS13y

Different, but neither noticeably better nor worse. In any case those who would rather not read the speculation can just stay out of the thread, or discussion and speculation could be separated from each other.

1Percent_Carbon13y

When more people are speculating, I am less likely to be the first one with a theory. That takes away from my enthusiasm. 80 was also really sad and caused me bad Fremdschämen. I was really glad the next chapter was so soon and tried not to think about the story much in the meantime. So maybe that was a bigger part of it.

[-]gjm13y40

Hmm, haven't we seen something like that before? "I know you arranged my father's death." [pause] "No. -- I am your father."

[-]jmmcd13y40

I don't think Harry is actually taking the piss, and nor does he see it as a literal proof. It helps to remember who he's talking to. He's trying to get Dumbledore to consider not just death, sometime in the far abstract future, but a thing that you might actually welcome even just one day after a day when you didn't welcome it. Not a proof but a rhetorical device.

1Cranefly13y

Well, and here's where it gets interesting: are there any other places where we see Harry use logic that he knows (or should know) to be unsound in an instrumental fashion? That is, where he makes a tactical choice to argue nonsense, believing it to have a better chance of convincing someone who disagrees with him? Harry should consider the possibility that he "might actually welcome [death] even just one day after a day when [he] didn't welcome it" -- if he can't anticipate the possibility of his utility function changing based on an infinity of new evidence, he should stop pretending to be solely rationalist. Which, interestingly, Chapter 82 seems to be hinting at.

[-]Desrtopa13y40

Pointless and futile? They didn't lose.

[-]AspiringKnitter13y40

Since we're doing this by chapter now, I'm not sure if this is the right place to post this, but I'm not sure where to put it otherwise.

I was rereading chapter 26, Noticing Confusion, and-- maybe I'm not the first person to notice this-- I was thinking of a certain other indestructible diary.

Surely Quirrelmort wouldn't give Harry that diary, right? But if the book is indestructible, and made of paper, there is magic involved. He does say Bacon was a wizard, but also that his experiments never got very far without a wand. Making books indestructible does not seem like not getting very far.

7see13y

I thought it was fairly obviously that diary, and thus an effort by Quirrelmort to take over/destroy Harry the way Ginny was (almost) in canon. Harry has apparently avoided the trap entirely because he is under the logically reasonable impression that he needs to learn Latin to read Roger Bacon's diary. I'm pretty sure other people have reached the same conclusion in previous threads. We then see a second effort to approximately the same end with the Dementor brought on school grounds (at Quirrelmort's instigation) with Harry's wand "accidentally" being left near the cage.

4Anubhav13y

Jbeq bs Tbq fnlf bgurejvfr. (Pgey-S 'rnegu-funggrevat')

0see13y

Vagrerfgvat.

[-]mjr13y40

I notice that I am confused.

I've been doubting Quirrel being Mr. Hat on a story-obviousness-basis, being partial to twists. But rationally, it makes no sense to very much doubt the obvious solution with no comparably well-supported alternatives (despite having reached for ones). I wouldn't wonder if that was even the moral there.

3SkyDK13y

Why do you not consider Snape to be an alternative? Yes, Quirrelmort has gained a lot by Hat's actions, but: a) Quirrel could be manipulating Snape. b) Quirrelmort probably has an extremely accurate mental model of Snape. What is your mental model of Snape?

1Lavode13y

"Uncertain, ask again later". Oh, all right. : I am fairly confident that whatever models the various masterminds in play have of him are inaccurate and have been getting rapidly more so ever since he had his little chat with Harry about Lily. I suspect that he is done with being anyones pawn. Moving into blind guessing territory, I wouldnt be surprised if his actual plot is to walk off with the philosophers stone in order to duplicate it, or something else completely unrelated to the political maneuverings.

0loserthree13y

I don't think it was an intended moral. The author has said he did not try to lead us astray (except for those two times, for which we forgive him insert-emoticon-that-indicates-I-joke-at-taking-on-airs). But it does sound like it was a good opportunity to learn something.

[-]wedrifid13y40

Next of kin would be the mother (surely?). She now has an incentive to legally kill a wealthy heir to take their estate. That's... something of a moral hazard or at least an unpleasant tradeoff to thrust upon someone.

0Percent_Carbon13y

If I recall correctly, in Louisiana, if a man dies and leaves children and a widow but no will, his estate goes to his children and his widow gets nothing. If Louisiana inheritance law works that way because it is based on Code Napoleon and if the German laws of inheritance also come from Code Napoleon, then maybe the mother would not be incentivized if there were other surviving siblings. That's a lot of ifs.

[-]Slackson13y40

You missed it. "The story will next update on Tuesday, April 3rd, at 7PM Pacific Time."

[-]Alsadius13y40

The foreign exchange(i.e., currency) market is both very liquid and very volatile. With advance knowledge of major changes from a Time Turner, it's easy to make very fast exponential growth of your seed money - even a 1% change per day, in any direction, multiplies your money by a factor of 12 every year(or x3 million before he graduates Hogwarts). Of course, anyone with that sort of record would get investigated hard and fast, but a more cautious approach can still result in absurd growth.

[-]buybuydandavis13y40

One thing I noticed about Harry's language - increasing talk in computer terms. PC, SYSTEM ERROR, Internal Consistency Checker.

His Dark Side is tremendously efficient at information recall and causal inference. Interesting that Quirrell remarked on the value of memory recall to a wizard. I've wondered if the Dark Side was just an interface to a computing system, but it's clear that's not all that it is.

It seems like the Dark Side is two things, an efficient computation engine, and the dark emotions related to Death: the terror and hatred. Why are those linked? Why does a computation and recall engine have to be linked to emotions at all, and if it's going to be emotions, why not positive Mr. Glowy Person feelings?

[-]pedanterrific13y160

PC means Player Character in this instance.

1Alex_Altair13y

That would explain a lot, but is "wallpaper" also a similar term? Or is EY just referring to literal wallpaper? Either way the combination is pretty misleading.

3Nornagest13y

Probably meant to indicate an unremarkable element of the background. I can't think of a suitable term that would extend the roleplaying game metaphor; "extras" is about as close as I can get, but I don't think I've ever actually seen it used in a gaming context.

4pedanterrific13y

Wallpaper would be one step below NPC, presumably. But yeah, it's mixing metaphors a bit.

[-]wedrifid13y40

If using time travel in this way is possible (I maintain it already has been explained it isn't)

You are wrong. We've already seen more complicated information exploitation scenarios than this.

that opens up a million plot holes and so I predict EY won't go there.

Narrative necessity dictates that he probably won't.

[-]Nornagest13y40

I think that's probably true -- but not for the reasons you seem to be implying, and not with any particular implications for authors' romantic success. Fanfic seems to be a highly generational phenomenon; there have been shared universes and exchanges of what we now call fanfic going back arguably to the Twenties (the weird fiction genre was highly incestuous), but the form only really took off with the arrival of the Internet. So its authorship's going to be heavily skewed towards younger writers, who are almost by definition less competent and experie... (read more)

[-]TimS13y40

What was dark about any of what Harry did?

Risky as all get out, but Hermione is easily worth an otherwise useless debt and substantially all of Harry's material wealth - especially if the actual villain gets caught, which helps lead to the rule of law in Magical Britain.

[-]Spurlock13y220

I don't think Harry's dark side is supposed to be limited to dark solutions, it just happens to be an ultra proficient problem solver. It may have dark tendencies by virtue of being an embedded copy of the mind of Voldemort, but there's no obvious reason it can't be used for good.

[-]roystgnr13y540

So Harry has an advanced intelligence of questionable tendencies locked away, but it's tantalizingly offering to be ultra useful to him if he'll only give it freer reign outside of its box?

This is sounding awfully familiar...

4[anonymous]13y

I think Harry's 'dark side' corresponds approximately to an unfriendly AI. It's not evil, just very creative. Or, put another way, it can be horrifyingly indifferent to the goals of regular Harry when constructing its plans, and can sacrifice important things without thought on its way to completing the goal.

[-]ArisKatsaris13y130

What was dark about any of what Harry did?

Who said the solution had to be dark?

Now, ofcourse, his Plan B would have been to let the Dementor feast on the souls of the Malfoy faction of the wizengamot. That's dark. Slightly so. :-)

9MartinB13y

Might have been a net win in the long run.

3loserthree13y

I think we're meant to understand from previous 'dark' plans that HJPEV's dark side makes plans that specifically don't do well for the long run.

4TimS13y

It's clear that Dumbledore thinks that, but I'm not sure he's right. Dumbledore thinks the universe runs on narrative.

7loserthree13y

Dumbledore's universe does.

2TimS13y

But he has no way of knowing that. Objects in our world don't come labelled "Chekov's gun," even when it turns out that they should have.

1ajuc13y

We don't have a way to be sure our universe runs on casuality. It's just generalization from our experiences. The same could be true for Dumbledore and his universe.

0Brickman13y

My interpretation has been more that the 'dark' plans rely primarily on application of force (most often political rather than physical)--threatening, blackmailing, bribing--and trickery. They tend to work in the short run, but in the long run can poison his reputation (people notice how dark he acts over time) and have nasty side effects. For the most part Harry's dark plans are pretty clever, because his dark side is pretty ruthless and very clever. If you take that definition for the plans his dark side comes up with, he actually started out with a light side plan (talk reason with Lucius, however undiplomatically) but resorted to a much darker plan B (force the issue via political loopholes) when that failed. Releasing the Dementor actually doesn't strike me as the kind of plan Harry's dark side tended to come up with, since for all its risk it doesn't really solve the problem or use his resources efficiently. It sounds like what normal Harry would come up with when very angry; the same normal Harry who was having happy thoughts about Guillotines right before the sorting.

7Percent_Carbon13y

* Harry spoke out of turn. * Harry threatened his betters. * Harry brought up awkward subjects without regard to how uncomfortable they would make people. * Harry showed off how powerful he was when he really didn't need to. * Harry totally cheated his enemies out of a well earned victory. That all sounds Gryffindor. The most Slytherin thing was done by McGonagal when she invoked a technicality.

[-]ArisKatsaris13y200

Also:

Harry terrified that poor Dementor

5loserthree13y

McGonagall defied oppressors in defense of the powerless. That's Gryffindor.

[-]Eliezer Yudkowsky13y30

God/Future of Humanity Institute?

1Eugine_Nier13y

God/Friendly Human (super)Intelligence

0[anonymous]13y

I read it as Friendly Human Intelligence.

[-]Desrtopa13y30

Question entirely unrelated to the current events of the story:

What would happen if a person bought a pack of Comed-Tea and committed to drinking one every morning with breakfast?

7Pavitra13y

Harry sometimes successfully resists the urge to drink Comed-Tea, and then something spit-take-inducing happens anyway. It's just a prediction with a clever user interface, not an artifact of eldritch power (except to the extent that predicting the future constitutes eldritch power, which is a nontrivial extent).

0Desrtopa13y

Getting you not to drink it at the wrong times seems at least as difficult as getting you to drink it at the right times though.

2AspiringKnitter13y

Well, that depends on whether people's decisions to drink Comed-Tea are controlled by the Tea's knowledge (??) of when they're going to see something ridiculous and whether it can affect anything else. It also depends on how powerful the mind-control is. If it just sends a "drink Comed-Tea" impulse whenever something funny's going to happen, the precommitment would probably beat it. If it controls your mind, either you'd only be able to decide that if you were fated for twelve consecutive days of surprises with breakfast, or you'd just forget about it when you weren't fated for a surprise. If it can control the rest of the universe to any extent at all, it'd probably try to make you decide to begin at a time when you were likely to face a lot of surprises, and then conspire to delay breakfasts or make you forget to drink it until something surprising was going to happen. And we can't rule out that, as a desperate measure, it could alter your sense of humor a little, or prompt you to, e.g., turn on the television at the right moment.

1bogdanb13y

You might simply forget to do it, or the idea might simply not occur to you unless there are enough surprising events going to follow every morning. Or, if the idea occurs to you, it might be because there are a couple surprising events followed by a scary event that causes you to abandon the idea. (À la “do not mess with time”, but less obvious.) The space of possible stable time loops is huge. Also, like somebody mentioned, it might not be perfect. It probably doesn’t work within Azkhaban, for example. The producer might simply make it “good enough” and expect that most people won’t bother to ask for their money back.

1Desrtopa13y

I thought about it a bit more, and I'm going to hazard a guess. It's charmed to taste bad if drunk at the wrong times. If the customer insists on drinking it anyway, it won't work and they can get their money back.

3TimS13y

It's already charmed to mess with your desires by making you want it at certain times. Why can't it be charmed to make you not want it when it won't work. You wouldn't even notice that your preferences were being edited.

6Desrtopa13y

How far can that charm extend though? If I had never seen a can of Comed-Tea (hey, I already haven't,) I'd want to try it out according to a consistent schedule. If a can of soda has the power to control people's minds without their ever coming in contact with it, we're already getting into realms of omnipotence-via-soda.

0Gastogh13y

It's likely that Harry's assessment of how Comed-Tea works isn't airtight. At the very least, it's certainly not the only possible explanation. The other comments posted so far have already produced more than one solid alternative. Most importantly, there's no particular reason to suspect that the Tea relies on one thing alone. If it could be prescience + mind control, why not prescience + mind control + occasional bad taste? Harry's current top theory of prescience + mind control, for one, is already more complicated than it needs to be; we could easily cut out the prescience part and presume that the Tea works by merely lowering the drinker's threshold for choking on it/spitting it out.

0MinibearRex13y

It probably doesn't matter when they actually open the can. The only thing that matters is that they sip the can at the exact right time. So every morning at breakfast, one of the many sips they take would be precisely timed with whatever the most shocking thing to occur during that period of time.

[-]kilobug13y30

« And so remained only Harry, Professor Quirrell, Headmaster Dumbledore, and an Auror trio.

It would have been better to get rid of the trio first, but Harry couldn't think of a good way to do that.» from chapter 45

Harry ensured that very few people saw him destroying it.

[-][anonymous]13y100

I believe that the Auror trio was memory charmed.

There was a distinct body-hitting-the-ground-with-a-thuddish sort of sound.

"Thank you for taking care of that, Quirinus," said Dumbledore to Professor Quirrell, who was now standing above and behind the unconscious forms of the three Aurors. "I confess I am still feeling a bit peaky. Though I shall handle the Memory Charms myself."

-Chapter 46

However, both McGonagall and Snape know that Harry has developed a charm which can affect the behavior of Dementors:

Albus nodded grimly. "Unfortunately there is now another wizard who laughs at impossibilities. A wizard who, not long ago, developed a new and powerful Charm which could have blinded the Dementors to Bellatrix Black's escape.

-Chapter 61

[-]James_Blair13y30

Is there anyone keeping a history of the story? I suspect there are some clues to be gleamed from the edits.

(Note: I originally specifically asked for what was chapter 76 but now 77, but I realized that the thing I was looking for was there all along. Regardless I am still interested in a history.)

[-]ChrisHallquist13y30

Um... I haven't been participating in these threads until now (will do so vigorously now), but what are current theories on the reasons behind what Quirrellmort has done so far?

It's clear to me that Hat and Cloak = Quirrellmort. So what did Quirrellmort stand to gain from this ploy? Was he trying to deprive Harry of allies, to eventually force him to rely more on Quirrellmort? Or specifically remove Hermione as a Morality Chain? Is this about maneuvering Harry into a position where he will eventually feel he must make war on Magical Britain, with Quirrellm... (read more)

[-]Benquo13y180

"Lessson I learned is not to try plotss that would make girl-child friend think I am evil or boy-child friend think I am sstupid," Harry snapped back. He'd been planning a more temporizing response than that, but somehow the words had just slipped out.

Harry named two people in particular - Hermione and Draco - who made him less susceptible to Quirrelmort's influence. This plot nearly removed both of them from Harry.

[-]see13y160

Let's assume that Hermione had actually been sentenced to Azkaban. How many advantages would Quirrelmort have gained?

Discredited Dumbledore somewhat with a student almost being killed
Directly eliminated a Light-side witch showing skill at military command and Battle Magic
Made Harry more vulnerable by knocking out an ally/friend/moral compass
Driven a wedge between Harry and House Malfoy, eliminating Draco as an ally/friend and ensuring no Malfoy-Potter alliance could form against a resurgent Voldemort
Broken the Dumbledore-Harry alliance forever if Dumbledore actually let Hermione go to Azkaban; otherwise force Dumbledore to go into open rebellion against the law.
Made Harry take the majority of the Wizengamot as enemies who needed to be punished, both encouraging him to become darker and the members to have reason to be hostile to Harry in turn.
Provoked Harry into a (possibly) suicidal effort to destroy Azkaban, which (possibly) could enable a mass breakout of Voldemort supporters from same.
Isolated Magical Britain from the rest of the wizarding world for sentencing a child to Azkaban.
Delegitimized the Wizengamot in the eyes of everyone in Magical Britain horrified at the sentence.

There may be more that aren't coming to mind, but, well, the potential payoffs for Quirrelmort were pretty high.

[-]Spurlock13y120

Mostly good points, but one issue:

Directly eliminated a Light-side witch showing skill at military command and Battle Magic

If Quirrel were worried about this, he could have just not put all the effort into teaching her military command and battle magic (at a level so far beyond what is expected of his position). If light-side heroes like Hermione are something he's worried about, best to just not go around creating them.

2Brickman13y

I don't think Harry actually would have taken Dumbledore as an enemy if Dumbledore failed to save Hermione, as he clearly was trying and even using up political capitol. Only having Dumbledore stand in the way of Harry saving her would do that, and when Dumbledore realized just how determined Harry was he had the sense to step aside. Also I'm not really sure how well "Delegitimized the Wizengamot in the eyes of Magical Britain" would have worked--rest of the world yes, but the papers were certainly doing a hatchet job on her. The question is how representative of the populace is the press? Obviously the biggest papers is Lucius's and Fudge's soapbox here and in canon, but there's more than one paper in those newsstands and dissent isn't illegal until the death eaters take over in the last few books. I'm going to go with "not at all representative of public opinion", but propaganda exists because it works and they sounded prepared to present a unified front. The rest, though, sound like things he could have planned on and represent MASSIVE gains for Voldemort. I especially like the "Isolated Magical Britain from the rest of the wizarding world" one--I didn't even think of it, but it fits. He didn't just get rid of Hermione, he goaded his enemies into committing an atrocity against her.

0see13y

Certainly the level of wedge between Harry and Dumbledore if Dumbledore let something really bad happen to Hermione, versus the amount of political capital Dumbledore would have had to spend/lose helping Hermione, covered a broad range of probabilities. I put it in maximal terms, mostly to put it in sharp relief; the precise costs would have been uncertain, but almost certainly real to some extent. Some advantage gained in any case, if not devastating. And I will freely grant that the percentage of "Magical Britain horrified at the sentence" is hard to determine, but I think 5% is a solid lower bound; some advantage if not big advantage. Similarly, , per Spurlock's comment, wiping out Hermione as "a Light-side witch showing skill at military command and Battle Magic", well, it was obviously not enough of a consideration to keep him from making Hermione a general in the first place . . . but even then it's still at least some advantage. And so on. There are, I think, reasonable arguments for minimizing many of these items, but even then you still wind up with a long list of small advantages, and a lot of small advantages in itself adds up to a big advantage. What's also interesting is how many of these got at least partly achieved even though Hermione basically is going unpunished. QuirrelCloakMort's plan may not have achieved everything it could have, but it didn't fail.

2bogdanb13y

It gets better if you think of it as make use of the powerful witch to level-up Harry, then get rid of her before she’s a problem and make do it in a way that brings all the advantages you quoted.

0Eugine_Nier13y

Do we have any evidence that the rest of the magical world would care?

3see13y

Yes. Weak evidence, but:

3bogdanb13y

There’s also that “and in Asia, they tell other stories entirely” line (wording from memory, I think in the previous chapter). And at some point two characters say something to the effect that even Voldemort didn’t use the worst kinds of magic, or every country would have risen against him. All suggests other countries at least look at what’s going on, but are reluctant to act unless things get Really Bad.

[-]Alsadius13y30

He also has a father who teaches at Oxford. I suspect he could run stuff through Dad if that was the biggest stumbling block.

[-]Xachariah13y30

I wonder if the exchange rate of 1 Galleon = 17 sickles = 493 knuts is fixed by law or a floating exchange rate that just happens to be currently at that value. Perhaps that would explain the unusual ratios that are in use.

Does anyone know what countries did back when coins were actually made of precious metals?

[-]anotherblackhat13y100

Mostly - fail.

For a detailed explanation, I recommend "The Big Problem of Small Change" - Thomas J. Sargent, François R. Velde published in 2002 isbn 0-691-02932-6

A common strategy was to ignore the problem and hope it goes away. It didn't - see Gresham's law

bad money drives out good. Another strategy was to debase the more valuable coins (make them of less pure metals), which has approximately the same effect.

All of which leads to "economic hardships" on the poor, which sounds a lot nicer than "the poor died in droves."

It seems strange, but the idea of a representational currency, coins that you can officially exchange for a fixed amount of gold, is actually a relatively recent invention. Not to be confused with fiat money - coins that you can't officially exchange for anything.

Edit: Did you mean "how did countries set the exchange rate in the old days?" If so, then typically the government reserved the right to mint coins, and the exchange rate was set by law.

3Xachariah13y

No, you and Alsadius answered my question perfectly. It was more of a "oh god is this as collapse prone as it seems at first glance" question. I guess the wizard world really is just jonesing for a total economic collapse.

5Alsadius13y

Monometallic systems run by honest authorities are actually relatively stable. I don't think they're as good as a fiat system run by honest authorities, because the price can fluctuate for reasons unrelated to actually being money(supply shocks of the sort that wrecked the Spanish economy in the 16th-17th centuries, new industrial uses, etc.), but they're not crazy. Multimetallic(or, really, any multi-commodity) systems are just completely insane - the pegs are set without regard to economic reality, and they work exactly as well as any other time government attempts to impose its will on economics. The only times that monetary pegs have ever worked for any length of time are either when economic change is very slow(pre-Renaissance), or during the Bretton Woods period from 1945-1971, when there were strong capital controls to minimize arbitrage opportunities, and when all the central banks of the world operated together to defend the pegs. And even Bretton Woods collapsed after 25 years, mostly because the speculative attacks were getting too intense to fend off. Otherwise, you can only defend a peg by making them literally the same, like the Euro.

0anotherblackhat13y

I don't see fiat as something the wizarding economy can jump straight to. First they have to be sold on the idea that money is a medium of exchange, and that the ability to exchange it is it's primary value. Representational money doesn't have to be mono-metallic, it could represent a basket of metals, or a basket of any commodities for that matter.

5Alsadius13y

Oh, of course not. Harry's arbitrage attack, assuming it happens at sufficient scale, will either shift or destroy the Galleon/Sickle/Knut pegs(edit: or, if Gringott's has a bigger bankroll than the muggle economy, it'll shift the muggle prices to the Gringott's ratio), but it won't cause the wizarding economy to go fiat. If nothing else, do you really trust Lucius Malfoy in charge of the Federal Wizerve? I just have this debate as it relates to RL politics on a regular basis, so I threw in the side note. Edit: I should also add, a basket of commodities can work very well. That's the method we use to calculate inflation, and it's quite stable.

9Alsadius13y

It varied. Some countries used a bimetallic standard with fixed exchange rates, some used one as the standard and let the other float. There's even been trimetallic(gold/silver/copper) at times. It's actually been a political issue which of those to use more recently than you'd expect(and no, I don't mean Ron Paul) - the 1896 US Presidential election was fought in significant part on a Democrat plan to move to a bimetallic standard away from straight gold, which was in the day an inflationary move designed to help indebted farmers. If you've ever heard of the "Cross of Gold" speech by William Jennings Bryan, that was it. A couple decades earlier, though, the US was bimetallic, and routinely had one metal or the other sucked completely out of circulation by prices changing faster than the official exchange ratio, as is to be expected of a system with fixed exchange rates and no capital controls. The history of how to abuse commodity money systems(both from the public's perspective and from the minter's) is long and actually rather fascinating. If you ever hear someone talking about how gold is stable and can't be abused, you can feel free to laugh at them.

[-]Vaniver13y30

I would be surprised if this did not quickly lead to the revocation of his time turner, but presuming he asks McGonagall and it's deemed responsible that is also an option.

[-]Cranefly13y30

I have a confusion!

Way back in Chapter 39, Harry says:

"I want to live one more day. Tomorrow I will still want to live one more day. Therefore I want to live forever, proof by induction on the positive integers."

This immediately caught my attention, given that Harry talks in earlier chapters about his worldview relying on Bayesian inference. Yet, for induction over an infinite sequence of unknown, informative experiences to hold, he has to have assigned an integral prior. Hijinks!

My first thought was that this was a clue dropped by the author... (read more)

[-]Zack_M_Davis13y220

Eliezer has used that line in nonfiction too; I'm very confident that Harry's pro-immortality stance is endorsed by the author, but that the "induction proof" is meant rhetorically and should not be construed to imply infinite certainty.

6Alsadius13y

Honestly, that comes across as a flaw in Eliezer's worldview more so than Harry's. I've seen him make the same argument in his own name, and it's pretty transparently false(cf. anyone committing suicide, ever). Being forced to die is evil and ought to be opposed, but I have a feeling that literal immortality would appeal to many fewer people than might be expected.

3Vladimir_Nesov13y

Please distinguish behavior from preference. See for example this post: Urges vs. Goals: The analogy to anticipation and belief.

0Alsadius13y

Are you actually trying to suggest that literally nobody who has ever committed suicide has genuinely wanted to not be alive? I mean sure, there's the "cry for help" gone wrong, and similar, but there's also the ones who actually want to die.

2bogdanb13y

True, suicide by mistake is probably rare, but I don’t think that’s what Vladimir meant. If I’m tortured and I can’t find a way of making it stop, I might “want to die”. But that’s not because I don’t want to live, it’s because I don’t want to live in torture. I don’t really have much knowledge of the subject, but my impression was that most suicides are of the “I can’t live like this anymore” kind, not “dying would be kinda cool”, albeit with the “like this”=“torture” being a YMMV issue in many cases. I’m not saying there aren’t other possibilities, just that simply pointing to suicides without more careful analysis is not clear proof of Harry’s induction being wrong.

0Vladimir_Nesov13y

I'm drawing attention to the reasoning steps, not the conclusion. My point is that it's generally incorrect that people's behavior contrary to some goal implies that goal not being held, that it's only weak evidence.

3Alsadius13y

Killing yourself is weak evidence of wanting to be dead? Pray tell, what would strong evidence be? Killing yourself twice?

2Vladimir_Nesov13y

Strangely, yes. The trouble is, for a human it's not that simple, there are many senses of having a goal that may well disagree with each other. The post I linked distinguished "urges" (more immediate tendencies that control one's behavior) and abstract goals, but urges could be further subdivided into wants and likes, what one tends to seek vs. what one enjoys having been done, and the structure of abstract goals is potentially much more complicated. Any single reading, however dramatic, doesn't reveal the details of this picture.

3Alsadius13y

"Death is bad" is a true conclusion that Harry has arrived at through legitimate means. "I will always want to live forever" is utter nonsense, but it's not necessary for the True Patronus.

0Cranefly13y

And my problem, here, is that "death is bad" cannot be an unqualified truth. "Human death is bad" can be aspirationally true, and I am willing to believe that the unprecedented depth of Harry's aspiration might be the key that unlocks the power of his Patronus -- but it does look like EY means it literally, and that means that Harry should at some point need to distinguish between his ideology and that of, as Edward Abbey puts it, "the ideology of the cancer cell."

[-]ajuc13y30

So if Hermione is vassal of Harry, and Harry is temporary vassal of Lucius, then is Hermione vassal of Lucius?

Or do the muggle medieval rule "the vassal of my vassal is not my vassal" works in magical Brittain also?

[-]Anubhav13y140

Being in debt is probably not the same thing as being a vassal, even temporarily.

(Well, maybe... Dumbledore still hasn't told us what rights Lucius now has over Harry.)

1GeeJo13y

Also, I'm pretty sure Harry has succeeded in terrifying Lucius enough that the latter isn't going to try pushing his luck too far.

[-]Blueberry13y30

True. Maybe they were just so stunned by everything.

On the other hand, Lucius gets 100,000 gold and Potter in his debt, which apparently gives him some kind of control. And maybe he realized Hermione wasn't the actual killer, but couldn't back down at that point because he'd lose face. So it's not like he ends up with a bad deal.

Alternatively, if he thinks Harry is his real enemy and Hermione just a minion, maybe having Harry in his debt is just as good as putting Hermione in the clank, according to his utility function.

[-]linkhyrule513y30

Insanity plea is a legitimate one, you know. Even if she did do it, she was severely manipulated, to the point that I'd argue it's similar to just manually reaching in and changing the weighting functions in her brain.

[-]MugaSofer12y20

IIRC, canon!Harry met a vampire in book VI. Does anyone know if they exist in the MORverse?

My instinct would be that rational!Harry would have already encountered them while researching immortality - especially since he frequently compares the wizarding world with D&D, where the primary form of magical immortality is to become an undead wizard, or "lich", although I doubt he would actually accept immortality via vampirism - they may be bound by magical law (or at least the Statute of Secrecy) but I expect it still screw with your utility func... (read more)

[-]ArisKatsaris13y20

Time for a new thread, surely.

1cultureulterior13y

http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/bfo/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/

[-]ArisKatsaris13y20

Maybe "magic" is what gives you a free will, ie the explanation of how a will can exist with a certain measure of independence from the neurons.

That would send a message quite contrary to lots of what LessWrong is about; so it'd be highly unlikely for Eliezer to have something like that in HPMoR.

Besides you are confusing at least three different concepts -- (a) "free will" in the sense of being active agents who make our decisions based on our own inner drives, (b) "consciousness" in the sense of being qualia-possessing se... (read more)

1pedanterrific13y

I suppose a generous reading would be that magic is what allows one to go on thinking in possessing-ghost form once your neurons are left burning on the floor of your enemy's home. Which seems trivially true.

0LauralH12y

It all makes sense now: wizards are Zombies!

[-][anonymous]13y20

I'm running with the theory (from Donny) that the prophecy was planted by Dumbledore as a plot to lure Voldemort into a trap, where Lily completed a dark ritual to protect Harry and destroy Voldemort should he attack Harry.

Objection. I don't believe Lily completed a ritual. She's not the one who spoke the words in the correct order. I don't think Voldemort would accidentally confer a protection upon an intended victim, either.

My version of this theory has Dumbledore creating the same setup as in canon because he thought it would lead to the same result... (read more)

[-]Desrtopa13y20

This is a legitimate usage of the term, "to lose", and I really don't see why you're so vehemently opposed to it.

Because there is already a contextual definition of "lose" with association to war that is so well established that it's assumed by default.

If Voldemort hadn't started the war, they would almost certainly be better off. We would also be better off if we never got dustspecks in our eyes. Some utility hits are for practical purposes unavoidable. But Dumbledore's faction resisted, and resisted successfully; they were not ove... (read more)

[-]bogdanb13y20

I started writing a counter-argument and remembered the date. This is meant as an April 1st joke, right?

[-]wedrifid13y20

Which part of this is goalpost-moving?

Exception to general claims countered by more proof for specific claims (which are trivial and not denied.)

For instance I still maintain this:

You don't generally accomplish that by antagonizing the one guy who can kill you.

Unless they already plan to kill you, in which case antagonizing them can potentially reduce their threat.

Yet clearly would not apply it in the specific case where a dementor is guarunteed to fail in the short term. ie. When their threat reamains at 100% and has not been reduced.

[-]Vladimir_Nesov13y20

You perceive this as an argument, but I have no interest in arguing about anything in particular, except to point out that technical inaccuracy about the meaning of "wanting" in your original comment (which you should judge on object level, based on what you conclude from reading the linked posts, if you choose to do so, not from how you perceive the context of me linking to those posts). That is all I meant to do, but arguing about what I meant to do is similarly beside the point, so I'm bowing out.

1Alsadius13y

The point is, I can conceive of no stronger evidence that a person wants to die than to observe that they committed suicide. Mocking the strongest evidence available for being weak is nonsensical.

3Vladimir_Nesov13y

(I don't think that a single action, however dramatic or final, is the strongest available evidence about goals. This comment is then a second out-of-context technical remark that shouldn't be taken as a relevant argument in the preceding context.) Please see Katja's post Estimation is the best we have. The strongest available evidence may well be weak, which doesn't mean that you don't go with the strongest available evidence, but going with it also doesn't make it strong.

[-]loserthree13y20

We are told that Occlumens can beat Veritaserum.

We are not told that promise-makers can beat Veritaserum.

0Logos0113y

Correct, but to put one under Veritaserum requires that you have sufficient information as to ask the question. And I don't believe that Veritaserum is described as forcing the volunteering of information which has not been requested of the subject.

0pedanterrific13y

"What do you know about Potter that he wishes to keep secret?"

2Logos0113y

Honestly, that doesn't map very well to my model of MoR!Lucius. It would be an admission of defeat in terms of manipulation; and it would also disrupt his plans/designs to create a worthy successor in Draco.

[-]drethelin13y20

Quirrel stopped the polyjuice spell to be intimidating, same as how he was manipulating the lights. Misdirecting the Aurors to polyjuice makes them more worried, and about the wrong thing.

But I think really it doesn't matter, because the reason in my mind why Voldemort isn't on Quirrel's head is because that would be fucking stupid. Plenty of changes from canon are simply people getting smarter, and this is one really obvious one. If his face HAS to be sticking out of whoever's body he is riding, the back of the head is basically the worst place to put i... (read more)

[-]mjr13y20

There is no reason to think he doesn't need his wand for actual Dementor crushing. The Dementor scaring wasn't him casting anything. It was due to Dementor's own ability to commune with Harry turned against it (plus, hypothetically, some expectation manipulation - the "BOO" there was probably more than just for show, but also to prime Harry's mind into expecting the thing to be spooked).

1Percent_Carbon13y

Normal wizards need their wands and the ability to cast patronus in order to deal with a dementor on their own. Harry can deal with dementors without his wand. That is, they cannot eat away at him. He can stand in their presence without becoming demented. And that is unusual.

[-]Alsadius13y20

Not really. It's a pretty silly theory.

[-]AspiringKnitter13y20

No.

[-]Alsadius13y20

"SF/Fantasy is as good as realistic fiction". It's a point I agree with, I just think it was overdone.

3Alicorn13y

It is preachy (there's a warning for that in the stories index) but the preached idea was a little more complex than that. I gave earthfic the status and market wherewithal of real-world fanfiction (and promoted fanfiction to a respectable position), and was also making a point about fanfiction.

2Alsadius13y

True, it was more generally a "Don't be snooty about genre perceptions" piece. Good literature is good, bad literature is bad, and genre be damned. I'm not arguing with you, I just wasn't a fan of the style.

1thomblake13y

There were also non-genre-related criticisms of fanfiction being addressed. Basically, a lot of criticisms of fanfiction can be plausibly applied to earthfic. For example, "If you're too lazy to create your own characters / world, then you're not a real writer" is bandied about by anti-fanfic folks, and yet they do not consistently apply it to biographies, or historical fiction, or older 'fanfic' writers like James Joyce and T.H.White, or sequels/series.

[-]kilobug13y20

I'm wondering why Lucius tried to get out of the deal.

If Harry is Voldemort in hiding, he should guess that Harrymort needs Hermione for something (a dark ritual perhaps ?) and shouldn't get out of the deal.

If Harry isn't Voldemort in hiding, then Lucius would get two benefits in one : a payment of the blood debt he has towards House Potter (which could cost him a lot in the game of politics), and a debt from the Boy-Who-Lived, which could grant him a lot in the same game. And lots of money in addition, which is always a good thing to have.

I know that Dra... (read more)

[-]alex_zag_al13y220

I've seen a few variations on "why does Lucius prefer vengeance to maintaining/expanding his political power?" First of all, for someone like Lucius, what's the point of power if you can't get stuff you want, like vengeance for your family members? Like how it's pointless to save if you're never going to spend.

And second, something that's on my mind because I just finished The Origins of Virtue by Matt Ridley. Emotions like vengeance evolved for a reason. Harry sees it as a weakness of Lucius's that he would give up anything politically to avenge his son. And it's true, that can be manipulated by people who want to see him lose his political power. However, it is also a powerful deterrent to his enemies. If Lucius is publically known as someone who would stop at nothing to avenge his family, then those that would provoke him will be few and far between, and he will probably not have to make the sacrifices that his vengefulness commits him to.

When he accused Dumbledore in public of the murder of his wife, even at political cost, I'm sure everyone got the message: "if I hurt Malfoy's family, even if I make sure it would be very politically costly for him to pursue me f... (read more)

[-]Eponymuse13y150

I don't get how a cunning Slytherin like him can discard such an advantage for pure vengeance over an "attempt" which didn't do any real harm.

On the contrary:

And Draco was getting angry again. "Dumbledore killed Mother, it's not enough to just say it's sad! I don't understand what you think you have to do, but the Malfoys have to take revenge!" Not avenging the deaths of family went beyond weakness, beyond dishonor, you might as well not exist.

Lucius never meant for Harry to accept the monetary bargain. This is clear from his reaction. He wanted his revenge, and Harry was interfering.

[-]ArisKatsaris13y100

I'm wondering why Lucius tried to get out of the deal.

I see it as a status game. Previously Lucius had suggested that Dumbledore take Hermione's place in Azkaban, not because Lucius thought there was much of a chance that Dumbledore accept this offer, but rather to strike at the idea of Dumbledore's supposed heroic altruism.

Now when Lucius named 100,000 galleons as the price to erase the debt, he was trying a similar tactic -- Lucius didn't expect that Harry accept this, Lucius wanted to strike at the idea of his enemies being heroic and altruistic.

But Harry accepts - which in terms of impressiveness is a blow in Harry's favor and against Lucius, despite the fact that Harry's now endebted to Lucius, and because the sum named is so outrageously large.

But then Lucius thought he saw a opportunity to strike back at Dumbledore and Harry, because he thought they were pretending a play to raise Harry's status even further (not just heroically altruistic, but super-heroically tough, able to destroy Azkaban, all by himself).

So he attempted to call Harry and Dumbledore's bluff. And it failed again.

9Nominull13y

If Harry is Voldemort in hiding, and Harrymort needs Hermione for something, Lucius should absolutely get out of the deal. Lucius is not a supporter of Voldemort per se, he allied himself with Voldemort because he thought he could get an advantage out of it. Possibly he regretted it deeply when it cost him his wife. And this new Voldemort seems likely to cost him his son? Lucius should do what he can to destroy him while he's weak and ensure he never becomes strong.

5Alsadius13y

Someone tried to murder his son, and all he got for it was a bit of cash. As if he gives a damn about cash. I can't imagine anyone, rich or poor, who'd say "A fat stack of bills and clearing an old favour, in exchange for attempting to murder my child? Sure, sounds fair!". I'd be throwing around terms like "sociopath" if anyone was actually okay with that(whether or not it's the proper psychological term).

0kilobug13y

Cash is a minor issue in that, just a cherry on the cake. I get the point of you (and other answers) of "getting vengeance over an attempt to murder his son" and "making it clear that attacking the Malfoy family will cost you terribly". But those points are achieved with the deal, as much as with sending Hermione to Azkaban. Accepting the deal would say "if you attack the Malfoy family, your life will become hell, unless you happen to have a friend who happens to own a blood debt from the Malfoy family and his ready to sacrifice about everything to save you" which is almost as efficient as "if you attack the Malfoy family, your life will become hell" as a deterrent. But in addition grants Malfoy a huge gain in political power, which he can then use to enforce even more efficiently his vengeance (even maybe going as far as being able to avenge Narcissa).

[-]buybuydandavis13y20

Saying Boo shows more dignity than snapping your fingers? Our dignity meters are uncorrelated.

0loserthree13y

If a child says 'boo' that's just childish. But snapping fingers is rude where I come from. It says that whomever's attention you are trying to get by snapping your fingers is below you. That would be everyone in the room. And so it might be below the dignity of the Wizengamot.

[-]TimS13y20

After Hermione failed to make a Patronus and Harry realized how to make a super-Patronus, he gave he a note telling her how to figure out super-Patronus so she wouldn't think she was evil. But he warned her that there were consequences for reading the note, so she decided not to.

Edit: Here it is, in the aftermath.

5Alejandro113y

From that note: Shouldn't Hermione have read that note the moment she realized she would be arrested and had a chance of being sent to Azkaban?

[-]TimS13y100

Given that Hermione's recent mental processes have essentially been put through a cheese shredder by various magic spells, I'm not sure such a moment actually occurred.

1Percent_Carbon13y

If she had, the Veratiserum would have forced her to volunteer that information. She was being asked about her actions before and after allegedly attempting to kill Draco. If it is the memebomb some of us think it to be, it would have come up since then. If that secret gets out, it has to happen in a relatively controlled fashion, for story reasons. Dumbledore can't find out about it, because he has to keep is patronus so it can recognize Harry's.

[-]mjr13y20

Incidentally, if one believes a certain piece of what seems like well-founded speculation about the Dread Totoro, the Merlin-Totoro legend mirrors Harry's escapades quite nicely.

3Anubhav13y

... Now I want a Death Note fanfic where Ryuk is a Totoro.

[-]buybuydandavis13y20

Earlier I noted that EY has a good bit of foreshadowing. Really spells things out.

A lot of that comes out in the dialogue. It occurred to me that dialogue is the closest thing we get to an unvarnished measurement in a story. The description of scenes and events are the voice of the author, but a character says what he says.

Except for cute things like "I'm not serious."

[-]Joshua Hobbes13y20

Never read that either. Is it like Time Braid?

[-]pedanterrific13y110

Time Braid is far, far better than Chunin Exam Day. For many reasons, including not being written by a sociopath.

2MatthewBaker13y

Time Braid is what Chunin Exam Day could have been without a Harem and with a more convincing polyamorous shipping. Its a much better and less drawn out story, for instance there are many other complete AU remakes that go as long and as deeply as HPMOR. However, HPMOR doesn't have the vast amount of fluff and filler that many of the 6/7 multipart fics seem to have(barring SA which I enjoyed greatly).

1thelittledoctor13y

SA?

1Anubhav13y

Self-Actualization.

[-]malthrin13y20

Regarding the ending comments about Godric's Hollow: there was some earlier discussion about the wizarding community's consensus here.

[-]JoshuaZ13y20

Hmm, judging the predictionbook bets is going to be tough. The chapter involved quite a few fan theories, but not any single one, but rather a combination of them.

[-]Alsadius13y100

Mark right the ones that got included, and wrong the ones that didn't. There's still more in the latter category.

[-]Wei Dai13y20

Why is there so much HPMoR talk all of a sudden? And how much fun am I missing out on if I wait until all the chapters are released before reading them (and thereby not participate in the discussions in real time)?

[-]DanArmak13y110

Well we'd need a better developed Theory of Fun to quantitatively answer that. How about, "a lot"?

ETA: and there's so much talk because Eliezer resumed posting new chapters (and a new arc) a couple of weeks ago after a long hiatus. And the new chapters have already set up a very dangerous situation and all end in cliffhangers and Eliezer added notes asking people to try to out-think Harry in solving the crisis before the next chapter is out. Which resulted in a lot of theories and suggestions being posted.

[-]wedrifid13y150

Eliezer added notes asking people to try to out-think Harry in solving the crisis before the next chapter is out. Which resulted in a lot of theories and suggestions being posted.

"Eliezer told us to" -> Good answer.

[-]thelittledoctor13y100

A comparatively small amount, relative to the fun involved in reading the chapters. I think waiting is probably a good idea - you're spared the agony of waiting. It's too late for all of us, though.

7JoshuaZ13y

There was a large gap where nothing was posted and chapters are now being posted regularly. And almost every new chapter has ended on a cliffhanger.

[-]Osuniev12y10

For all those wandering WHY wizards don't use their powers to get money from the Muggle economy...

Canon!Lucius does, according to Rowling (from her website Pottermore): The Malfoy name comes from old French and translates as 'bad faith'. Like many other progenitors of noble English families, the wizard Armand Malfoy arrived in Britain with William the Conqueror as part of the invading Norman army. Having rendered unknown, shady (and almost certainly magical) services to King William I, Malfoy was given a prime piece of land in Wiltshire, seized from local ... (read more)

[-]prasannak13y10

Can we get a sub-reddit? I'm tired of finding out which is the right thread for the present, and all the posts are scrambled over multiple threads, etc.

A sub-reddit might also get new people to hpmor, as opposed to being on lesswrong.com

I don't have a reddit account, but I'd create one if hpmor was there.

3Jonathan_Elmer13y

http://www.reddit.com/r/hpmor

[-]Desrtopa13y10

So instead of a war, let's look at a potential asteroid strike. It takes an enormously expensive project to deflect an asteroid which has absolutely no motive to hit the earth, and nothing to gain from it. It's just there, and unless we funnel countless billions of dollars into stopping it, civilization is screwed. Would the project to stop it be pointless and futile? If not, what distinguishes it from the Voldemort scenario?

In any case, Voldemort almost certainly had motives for going to war (MoR Quirrelmort at least is very much not a "for the hell... (read more)

[-]Desrtopa13y10

So yes. Please update your modal thinking. Yours is not the only legitimate usage of "to lose" here. After all; they did not lose the war but they sure as hell all lost something/someone. And for no good reason.

If they lost things "for no good reason," every war of defense ever engaged in is pointless and futile. You might be able to define your terms such that this is the case, but it's tremendously misleading. Sometimes we have to expend efforts to stop bad things from happening, not just to cause good things that wouldn't otherwise have happened.

[-]aladner13y10

I'd say trying to have a 12 year old girl tortured to death is a better example of villainous behavior. I also don't see much evidence of Lucius doing any of this to help Harrymort. It seems more like a desperate attempt to sabotage him out of fear and anger.

0cultureulterior13y

Agreed. However, very few people are villains in their own minds. And You Fool! has classically been a narrative tag for villains for over a century.

[-]Alsadius13y10

2/3 of those are false claims. Seriously, for a rationalist site, this is an astonishingly poor argument to see getting thrown around.

[-]TimS13y10

I think you are equivocating political power and political capital. Scaring dementors doesn't show legitimacy quite the way winning elections does. In other words, political capital is a kind of political power, but not the only kind.

The blood debt was political capital. Scaring the dementor will create political power of another kind.

1Logos0113y

I'm not equivocating; I'm equating. Political power is political capital; political capital is political power. If you have one, you have the other.

[-]pedanterrific13y10

"Slow"? Edit: or no, that's the same thing, isn't it. Um. Probably a dumb question, but what's wrong with "dumb"?

8AspiringKnitter13y

Dumb used to mean mute. Personally, I think that's going a little overboard with the political correctness, though. (And this from someone who doesn't use retarded as an insult, or even crazy.)

2Will_Newsome13y

(Basically unrelated, but: Do you or does anyone reading this know of anywhere online to read lots of case studies of schizophrenics, ideally without selection effects for "interesting" cases?)

0AspiringKnitter13y

No, but my local library has two autobiographies. Both seemed interesting to me, though. Maybe you could look for internet support groups or forums or something. Stuff people write about themselves is probably more useful than stuff doctors write about them if you're looking to learn about their thought processes.

0Will_Newsome13y

Good suggestions, thanks much.

0Dmytry13y

Something oddly relevant that i came across recently, tendency to interpret things too literally: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17372545 It is sort of a stereotype though, so I do not know how real it is.

[-]wedrifid13y10

But I'm still confused; why not? What are the benefits of servitude over marriage?

Non-violation of bigamy laws if you marry someone else.

[-]wedrifid13y10

"I told you, no kissing!" and then some.

Before McGonagall's stunt, I was worried the marriage would require consummation to be legally binding.

This doesn't strike me as much of an issue. Considering what was at stake it would be an utterly trivial cost and a requirement comparatively easy to fulfill. Just another taboo tradeoff.

"Let's see... is drastically underage sex with my girlfriend better than her death by torture?". Death by torture really makes decision making easy at times!

1TheOtherDave13y

Well, yes. I mean, a canonical purpose of torture is to simplify decision-making.

0[anonymous]13y

Canonical?

[-]pedanterrific13y10

He'll say that publicly, but how's anyone else supposed to believe he didn't give contradictory orders in private?

6Logos0113y

... He's The Boy-Who-Lived. EVERYONE knows everything he does is insane. Also, he already has history giving multiple individuals exactly that order. And one of them made good with it (which is why Dragons also wear green goggles.)

0buybuydandavis13y

I'm with you on that. Few will believe, and the doubt in Sunshine Army will be a liability.

4wedrifid13y

At this point... who cares? Surely both Harry and Hermione have reached the stage where they realize that they have things more important than children's team sports to worry about! There's a world to win, their own security to protect and a government that... they may decide is a liability at some point in the future.

2pedanterrific13y

Not only is Sunshine's morale likely irreparably damaged, Dragon Army's general is rather unlikely to return to Hogwarts. The games are going to undergo some serious changes one way or another.

3Percent_Carbon13y

Perhaps they'll lose all three generals and each be led by a former Chaotic Lieutenant.

0loserthree13y

This sounds easier to write than another over-the-top battlefield miracle from HJPEV.

[-]NancyLebovitz13y10

434 comments. Is it getting to be time to start a new thread?

Opinions about whether Harry could actually destroy Azkaban?

8Alsadius13y

IMO, new thread for Ch 82, not before - the "show all" button is still here, and the thread proliferation is getting silly, this is the third in a week. Alternately, can we get better forum software?

4Anubhav13y

Seconded. 2 threads in 3 days = BAD IDEA. (Not that these comments will make a difference; someone or the other's gonna notice the comment-count and instinctively think "Over 500!! Ah, there's my chance to be of service! ...... HEY GUYS NEW THREAD HERE!")

2Jonathan_Elmer13y

We could try to use a subreddit.

6Desrtopa13y

I don't think it would be that difficult for him to "destroy" it in the sense of making it no longer a practical method of imprisonment. All he would have to do is start disseminating knowledge of the true patronus charm, and using dementors as the primary guards of a prison would cease to be viable. People could still be tormented by the dementors when their wands are taken away, and left unable to escape, but using dementors as a torture device which itself needs to be guarded from anyone who might decide to obliterate them all is probably a lot less politically viable. In terms of retaining political advantage, this may not be the best method available to him, but it may be the easiest. Attempting to coerce the dementors directly and break their pact with the Ministry retains more power, as does taking away everyone else's ability to use patronuses, leaving himself in control of the dementors, but both are vulnerable to interventions such as, say, kidnapping him and crucioing him until he surrenders.

5Percent_Carbon13y

Yes, he can. Fawks is completely good and Harry has a connection with him. Fawks would take him there and Harry would destroy the Dementors. Azkaban is Dementors in a convenient package. Once the Dementors are gone, the packaging is no longer really Azkaban. Harry believes he can do it and EY doesn't make it look like he can't.

4bogdanb13y

In the sense of getting rid of the Dementors, probably. In TSPE he seems to think he might be able to do it, though with high probability of dying. In the last chapter, he was planning to take Fawkes with him, which is quite likely to have kept him alive. Note how Dumbledore says that he would have died after his duel with Grindelwald if not for Fawkes, that phoenixes seem to heal (give life, opposite of Dementors), and that a Patronus-nuke seems to be Cast from Vitality.

2smk13y

In Ch 45, Harry thinks: If this is true, it's possible that as long as death exists (for wizards, anyway), it will continue to cast its shadows, and so the dementors can never be all destroyed. Maybe they'll just respawn or something. In fact, maybe when Harry destroyed that one in Ch 45, a dementor respawned back at Azkaban without anyone noticing. Do the guards keep a count of dementors?

[-]QuicklyStarfish13y240

That's an interesting possibility, but I favour the interpretation that this is the source of dementors:

Even so, the most terrible ritual known to me demands only a rope which has hanged a man and a sword which has slain a woman; and that for a ritual which promised to summon Death itself - though what is truly meant by that I do not know and do not care to discover, since it was also said that the counterspell to dismiss Death had been lost.

Quirrell, Chapter 74

It fits very nicely. Dementors (Death) were unkillable (undismissable) because the "true" patronus charm (counterspell) had been lost.

2MinibearRex13y

Canon makes reference to fog being produced by dementors breeding, which doesn't sound like a light ritual or a respawning option. I don't know if Yudkowsky has kept this part.

3bogdanb13y

Given how Dumbledore worries about how to explain losing one to the ministry, and that they’re considered “weapons of war”, I’d say someone keeps count.

2TuviaDulin13y

Dementors don't act like death incarnate, though. Death isn't reactive to human expectations and sensibilities. Death doesn't go out of its way to try to destroy people. Death is just a force of nature (or, rather, the point at which a force of nature terminates). Dementors act like a superstitious anthropomorphization of death. We also know that there is a dark ritual that summons Death, which Quirrel knows but is afraid to perform. We know, too, that spells modify reality based on the caster's understanding of the natural world, rather than using the most simple and nature-compliant approach. I have a very strong suspicion that the first dementors were created by the ritual that Quirrel spoke of. They are a fearful, human-imagined depiction of death, created by the spells of primitive wizards who didn't understand death's impersonal and causal nature. What I wonder, though, is whether casting that ritual is the ONLY way to create new dementors, or if they are also capable of reproducing on their own once summoned. According to the books, dementors can reproduce via a mysterious process that bathes the countryside in fog, but Yudkowsky's dementors are already quite different from Rowling's. It may be that their numbers remain constant unless someone uses that dark ritual to create more of them or a spell like Harry's ubertronus to destroy some.

0tadrinth13y

The dementors serve at least three purposes in Azkaban: they drain the magic from prisoners to render them helpless, they notify the guards when prisoners escape, and they chase down and incapacitate escaped prisoners and intruders. If Harry destroys 90% of the dementors, there probably won't be enough left for the first or third purposes. That would make Azkaban much less secure, and the perception of Azkaban's security would go down if there are hardly any dementors since the dementors are what make it infallible. Even just demonstrating that Dementors CAN be destroyed would probably force them to completely remake Azkaban to not depend on the dementors.

3loserthree13y

They also stay in Azkaban, instead of being everywhere else.

[-]Alsadius13y10

Oh, of course. He just reminds me a lot of the obnoxious little shit that I was at that age(albeit much more well-read, which is a feat), and has some of the same gaping flaws in his mental model of the world.

[-]jimrandomh13y10

This may be pushing the limits of Harry's control over his Patronus, but humans can speak in funny voices even without magic, and doing so to prevent characters from recognizing who they are is a standard trope. This deserves mention, though, so I'll edit to include one.

[-]Lavode13y10

Re: the debt. I think Lucius may have been playing very high speed chess when he picked the amount. The point isnt to have Harry in debt to him, the point is to afford ex-deatheaters loyal to Lucius the oppertunity to trade in a blood debt to Harry for a monetary one to him. If this is so, the debts are likely to be paid off long before Harry can set any money making schemes in motion. - This would count as a downside to being in debt to Lucius - He cannot refuse cash in lieu as long as he is a debtor.

The ending note of that trial couldnt have been more p... (read more)

[-]Eponymuse13y120

I think Lucius may have been playing very high speed chess when he picked the amount. The point isnt to have Harry in debt to him, the point is to afford ex-deatheaters loyal to Lucius the oppertunity to trade in a blood debt to Harry for a monetary one to him.

I don't think so. It's clear from his reaction that he did not want Harry to accept the trade:

It was clear that Lucius Malfoy had not been expecting that reply.

And later:

"I withdraw my offer!" shouted the Lord of Malfoy. "I will not accept the debt to House Potter in payment, not even for a hundred thousand Galleons! The girl's blood debt to House Malfoy stands!"

Indeed, it is a taboo tradeoff from Lucius perspective. He has traded justice for his son for money and the resolution of a political (though not moral) debt to Harry. He picked the amount because he thought there was no possibility that Harry would accept such a large amount.

7mjr13y

I rate it likely that she'll read it. Unlikely she'll babble. But she's no Occlumens. (She should strive to be real quick, though.)

1anotherblackhat13y

Read it? Probably. Understand it despite the Interdict of Merlin? Not so sure.

9bogdanb13y

(1) She already knows how a Patronus is cast, she just can’t do it yet. (2) The text Harry gave Hermione is not actually teaching a spell. It is a cryptically-written secret about what Dementors are and what the charm does, not how to cast it. Knowing the secret will allow her to discover the new Patronus, not teach it to her.

[-]anotherblackhat13y10

Anyone know if Galleons are solid?
Harry estimated their weight at 5 grams, about 1/10th of what a solid gold coin about 38.6 mm in diameter would weigh.

7bogdanb13y

They might be enchanted to be lighter as a convenience. That would throw off Harry’s arbitrage calculations, though. [Edit:] I didn’t think of this before, but I’d expect Harry to notice if they were significantly lighter (a factor of ten) than gold; even if he never handled gold, a factor of ten would make them lighter than aluminium. He’d have asked about it. Is their actual size mentioned anywhere in MoR? Perhaps Eliezer just departed from canon because it didn’t make much sense.

1anotherblackhat13y

My thinking was more mundane; gold foam with a solid shell. But yeah, seems like there's a lot of possible sources of error in the size/weight of a Galleon magic or no. Still, given the volatility of the Muggle marketplace and the isolation of the wizarding world in general, it seems likely that some arbitrage opportunities exist. Not that I should care about the destruction of a fictional economy, but I much prefer the idea that arbitrage is only, say, 10%, and Harry decides to strike a long term business relationship with the goblins rather than taking an adversarial position and crashing the market in a big way. He could even introduce the idea of representational currency, which ought to be worth quite a bit to the goblins.

7bogdanb13y

Given what I’ve seen about goblins up to now, I’d rather expect their reaction to be somewhere between “ROTFLMAO” and “Blasphemy!!!1!!”

2Xachariah13y

From the movie, they appear to be at least the size of a quarter. A solid gold coin 5 grams in weight should be less than the size of a penny. It seems unlikely that they're 90% hollow, since gold is such a weak metal and they'd crush so easily. It's possible that in HPMoR they just made galleons a lot smaller to be portable. Otherwise you'd go shopping for a broom and need a giant sack of money with you instead of just a small pouch for your pocket.

[-]ShardPhoenix13y10

Harry: Use magic to cheat on gambling, or do the arbitrage-y thing.

Lucius: Suddenly you don't understand anything.

4Alsadius13y

Huh?

2Percent_Carbon13y

I don't know what you are trying to say. Would you kindly use more words?

1linkhyrule513y

Harry: Get all of the Galleons. All of them. ... I wonder how soon Lucius will start picking up those tricks.

[-]thelittledoctor13y10

I actually found it fairly enjoyable as well for the first few chapters. I didn't realize how much I hated it until I came to Qhzoyrqber'f guvegrragu Ubepehk.

Of course, the mere existence of that spoiler may make you want to read more just to find out how on earth such a thing could happen.

2Joshua Hobbes13y

Good prediction.

0pedanterrific13y

Out of curiosity, what's your current opinion on the story?

1Joshua Hobbes13y

Tried to stick with it, got bored shortly after they met a Fairy Queen or something.

[-]Lambda13y10

The fanfiction.net mirror has chapter 81 posted. Meanwhile, hpmor.com has today's Author's Note up, but not #81 itself. This is a shame, since I think that hpmor.com provides a substantially better reading experience...

Edit: And now it has #81 up too. Sorry about that.

[-]Chrysophylax12y00

I'm not sure if this is the place for it, but I haven't found somewhere better and I don't see how it could be plot-critical. Nevertheless, warning for very minor spoilers about chapter 86.

I gave my mother a description of the vrooping device, and she had no idea. I said that it was one of a collection of odd devices with bizarre uses, and the conversation progressed as follows:

"Well in that case, it was an egg coddler." "An egg coddler?" "Coddling is like poaching but slower and gentler." "What about the pulsing lig... (read more)

[-]Osuniev12y00

For all those wandering WHY wizards don't use their powers to get money from the Muggle economy...

Canon!Lucius does, according to Rowling (from her website Pottermore):

" The Malfoy name comes from old French and translates as 'bad faith'. Like many other progenitors of noble English families, the wizard Armand Malfoy arrived in Britain with William the Conqueror as part of the invading Norman army. Having rendered unknown, shady (and almost certainly magical) services to King William I, Malfoy was given a prime piece of land in Wiltshire, seized from ... (read more)

[-]Blackened12y00

I'd love to see a list of spoilers about things that were hinted at and reasonably sounding hypotheses, if anyone ever made one. Please do reply to this post with your discoveries and speculations. I'm also going to post mine, once I finish rereading HPMOR.

[-]OnTheOtherHandle12y00

I just wanted to drop in to say that this song on the very popular nerdy YouTube channel vlogbrothers by Hank and John Green closely echoes the spirit and values of HP:MoR. Nerdfighters (the community centered around John and Hank's videos) would be a great potential audience for this fic. I think fans of Hank Green in particular would really appreciate this, because he is known as the "science and math" brother. Hank has often been excited about advancements in medicine in the past, and has supported things that the general public may consider i... (read more)

[This comment is no longer endorsed by its author]Reply

0OnTheOtherHandle12y

I didn't post this in the most recent thread, so I'll repost it there. Don't vote up/down twice, please. :)

[-]TheOtherDave13y00

Am I the only one who interprets the most recent XKCD as a Sorting Hat shoutout?

The wording isn't quite identical, and the sentiment isn't especially singular, so I'm probably wrong to do so, but I'm wondering if I'm alone in that likely wrongness.

[-]AspiringKnitter13y00

Is there a new thread yet? If so, why can't I find it?

4nohatmaker13y

http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/bfo/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/

0AspiringKnitter13y

Thanks. :)

[-]glumph13y00

Did anyone archive the April Fool's chapter from ff.net?

4ArisKatsaris13y

The April Fool's chapter was never in fanfiction.net, it was in a site made to look like like fanfiction.net, where it still is.

[-]LKtheGreat13y00

How well supported at this point is the theory that HJPEV is... unmodified, if you will? I.e., that the person we know as our protagonist is the product of James and Lily's son progressing linearly through eleven years in exactly the way that we've heard from various in-story sources, and not the product of any other, unknown influence whatsoever.

I am almost convinced that there's some other influence at work, but I don't know what to attribute it to. His oddities, especially his "dark side," could be from the Horcrux (assuming he is one in this ... (read more)

1pedanterrific13y

When I think of in-story sources about HJPEV's upbringing, I think So, um. I'd say 'not very well supported at all'.

6LKtheGreat13y

Thank you, this comes of posting in a hurry. Let me restructure that in a better way: How well supported is the theory that HJPEV's behavior is completely explained by rational extensions of something in-canon? Has he done anything that could not be explained by the interference of Horcrux!Riddle (who did in fact have pretty much the upbringing that McGonagall describes), and has anything at all happened in the story that would suggest something else at play there?

[-]moritz13y00

Ok, this is quite old stuff, and maybe it has been discussed already, but I couldn't find it,. Chapter 25:

And by similar logic: The words a wizard spoke, the wand movements, those weren't complicated enough of themselves to build up the spell effects from scratch - not the way that the three billion base pairs of human DNA actually were complicated enough to build a human body from scratch, not the way that computer programs took up thousands of bytes of data.
So the words and wand movements were just triggers, levers pulled on some hidden and more comple

... (read more)

8alex_zag_al13y

Hatred may not be the only way to cast Avada Kedavra, just as the happy memories are not the only way to cast the Patronus Charm, and Oogely Boogely doesn't need to be pronounced correctly if you don't care whether your bats glow. Maybe he'll discover a True Killing Curse.

2ArisKatsaris13y

I think that's Harry's point about Wingardium Leviosa. That it doesn't make sense for people many thousands of years earlier (as far back as Atlantis) to have created a spell that looks like a Latin-English mangling. That's why the immediately following sentence to the passage you quoted is: So basically he had made a hypothesis (preprogrammed program-instruction by the people of Atlantis), but his theory seemed to collapse on this bit, that the language didn't fit.

1pedanterrific13y

Here's a question: how does excessive magic use cause unconsciousness? What's going on there, physically?

3bogdanb13y

If you’re going for “what’s going on”, you might as well ask where does the “excessive” come from. I mean, you could switch to a “lever” instead of a “button” analogy to “justify” that the magician provides energy for the “magical mechanism” of a spell, but the ridiculous amounts of energy implied by even some low-level spells means that won’t actually explain much. (For example, first years can fly broom-sticks with non-Newtonian mechanics. This either means that a large amount of energy is used to simulate them over normal physics—compensating for inertia with very high accelerations—or that the “normal” physics is actually simulated on a completely different real physics substrate, in which case all bets are off.) Also, the reasoning for the single-magic-gene, if true in-universe, raises the question of where do all differences in magic ability come from. Sure, Harry considers training and conscientiousness and talent, but only that seems to me not enough to explain differences that we see. Alohomora is explicitly said to balance the casters’ magic powers, and the interaction of many spells (e.g., shields and shield-breakers) are seen to depend on the relative ability of the casters. There are huge differences of ability between a talented painter and the average person, but that would only explain stuff like creating spells. Pushing a button on a printer works the same for both. And in the “lever” analogy, just as relative strength is not governed by a single gene, differences between magical power are hard to explain with a single gene. (Even if there are more than two alleles, some of which are magic but with varying strength, and some of which are not, that should result in quantified levels of power rather than what appears to be a continuum.) I would just go with a combination of “it just ignores the rules” and “intuitive user interface”. If whatever causes magic allows spells like Somnium, it can make you progressively tired and then unconscious as yo

1moritz13y

There could be multiple factors that govern the strength of wizardry. For example the base could be a trained component like muscle strength, but the total observable strength also depends on your ability to control it. If you have very fine control over the magic (ie very precise wand movements, nearly perfect self control for spells that require it), you can make your magic flow much more efficiently. A bit like pulling a lever into the exactly correct direction, or a bit in the wrong direction -- it'll still work, but requires more strength.

7bogdanb13y

If it worked like that, there’s still the question of “what component?” Muscles becoming stronger as a result of exercising them is a complex behavior, governed by many genes. Harry’s reasoning towards one “magic marker gene” suggests that is not the case. I can think of all sorts of possible explanations, I just can’t see one that looks really reasonable; since we have no actual explanation about how stuff works, you need a lot of assumptions for anything and stuff tends to be arbitrary. If you think about it, all substances being combinations of four elements, or Lamarckian inheritance, are plausible explanations if your only observations are on the level of “some stuff burns” and “water quenches fire” or “children kinda look like parents”. (“Inventing” new charms is mentioned several times, but there are basically no details about how that works. Harry just changes how to apply a couple of existing charms, and he seems to have figured out how he might pick ingredients for potions, but even there he’s not told where the gestures and ritual come from.)

2moritz13y

Maybe using magic doesn't strengthens your magic the way that physical exercise strengthens your muscles, but rather similar to a river carving its way through the landscape -- the more water flows, the deeper the river bed becomes. Such a mechanism wouldn't require any more genetic information, because it's not a property of the individual magic user.

0Desrtopa12y

I tend to think of spells as being less like a button or a lever, and more like a high striker. If the spell is the ringing of the bell, then you've got to put sufficient energy in to attain that. More energy will allow you to hit the bell harder, and thus ring it louder, but you have to be able to put enough in to reach the basic threshold in order to ring it at all. Of course, spells routinely output more energy than they could be getting out of the metabolisms of their casters, so for the analogy to hold up under extension, it's more like an electronic high striker, which sounds a siren at different volumes depending on how hard you hit the target.

0Luke_A_Somers13y

But can they build them?

0bogdanb13y

I don’t think so—I read something about it being somewhat hard, but I don’t remember the details or the source. Hmm, you got a point. The energy required to fly them should be spent while flying; if you’d do it on creation, there would be the risk of it being exhausted at some point. But Hogwarts has been running for centuries and it’s constantly doing stuff that needs lots more energy than a broom. I guess my example is just silly. Without more information guessing about the relative magnitude of energy expended for various magics is useless. I’d say that the energy involved for pretty much all spells is too huge to give any plausibility to the idea that it’s somehow generated by the human body through the genome, with or without a magic gene.

2[anonymous]13y

When someone becomes a witch or wizard, their consciousness/soul/whatever is removed from the brain, leaving the body a mindless puppet. The magic proceeds to control the body, but when the magic is exhausted it is no longer able to do so, and the body falls down unconscious. This also explains why wizards are more resistant to damage (it's just the mindless puppet that's being hurt, so unless you hurt it enough that it can't be fixed, everything is alright, even if it's a Bludger to the head), and how Animagi can think when their human brains are transfigured into animal brains (the human brain wasn't doing any work, anyway).

7pedanterrific13y

But they don't wear any fancy jewelry, though. And their animal familiars are not nearly as cute. Edit: Hmm, Soul Gems as Horcruxes... Horcrux'd wizards as liches... we're on to something here.

2kilobug13y

Nice theory, but it has a flaw : effects on the body of the wizards do affect their mind, eating chocolate helps to counter the Dementor effect, alcohol seems to have the normal effect, and (at least in canon) the wizard teens are affected by hormones like normal teens. So it would require the magic to scan that, and affect the mind in a similar way than a normal chemical effect on the brain would work, but yet still preserve the "resistant to damage" property ? Well, starts to be quite un-occamian.

0Desrtopa12y

If this is true, it should follow that brain surgery would have no effect on wizards. It should be pretty easy to test.

0LauralH12y

So wizards are Zombies...

0summerstay13y

When we exert willpower or mental effort, it uses up glucose from the blood in the brain. One way you could explain the exhaustion that comes from using magic is that it requires mental effort to the point of creating dangerously low levels of blood sugar in the brain.

[-]Eneasz13y00

With Eliezer's comments about how plots are better when they aren't needlessly complicated and the point isn't to trick the reader into wildly off-base or over-the-top-speculation, I've increased my probability of Harry being placed into Slytherin by the actual Sorting Hat up to 50%. If we assume that it was Dumbledore that veto'd the Hat's choice, why didn't he place Harry into Gryffindor? He would have been much closer to MacGonagal, Dumbledore's most loyal agent. Was he trying to keep him close to Hermione? Can anyone recall support for that in the text?

[-]75th13y140

This is another case of an issue that's supposed to be mysterious to the characters, but not to the readers. We know what actually happened: the Sorting Hat said "SLYTHERIN!" to try to scare the crap out of Harry, to make his life flash before his eyes, to make him think that his hopes and dreams were ruined, so he would get serious and vow right then and there not to become the next Dark Lord. But the Hat actually, truly meant him to go to Ravenclaw.

Harry acknowledges that this is what happened: "It had been an awfully cruel prank the Hat had played on him, but you couldn't argue with the results on consequentialist grounds."

No other characters know what happened, so it adds to Harry's mystique for them, but we, who saw the whole thing from Harry's point of view, ought to know better.

6Joshua Hobbes13y

But Harry is a Slytherin. At his very core is his ambition to become immortal and reorganize the universe to his satisfaction. He wants knowledge, and he wants it for its own sake, but it's not his deepest wish. If he looked into the Mirror of Erised he'd see himself as the benevolent and omnipotent lord of the universe, not himself surrounded by books.

4Eneasz13y

Harry is wrong sometimes. From his point of view Quirrell is awesome, and engaging his Dark Side is a perfectly valid option whenever he runs into a problem hard enough (despite his vow to not become the next Dark Lord). He acts more Slytherin than Ravenclaw most of the time. If Harry had an image of himself as belonging to Ravenclaw and not Slytherin, and the Hat told him "You deserve this too" and then yelled out "SLYTHERIN!"... and then after a few seconds of silence yelled out "Just Kidding, RAVENCLAW!" - given that Harry knows nothing about any of the major players, and has no idea how powerful Dumbledore is and his usual crazy-style of plotting - than to him the most probable explanation is likely "The hat must've played a cruel prank on me to teach me a lesson." But if he had knowledge of the politics and players in Hogwarts, didn't have such a strong self-identity as Ravenclaw, and hadn't had his "prank" mental network readily available due to the Hat scolding him about it just a few minutes beforehand, a neutral interpretation of the facts would've placed at least an equally high probability on someone meddling with his sorting, as on the Hat played its first prank in over 600 years.

[-]75th13y100

Your "neutral interpretation of the facts" apparently ignores the facts that the Sorting Hat has never been self-aware before, that Harry is aware that the Hat is self-aware now, and that the Hat is borrowing a lot of knowledge and a little bit of personality from Harry's own brain at the time of the prank.

I just fail to see how you can take an explanation that fits 100% of the known facts, and then somehow, by applying

Eliezer's comments about how plots are better when they aren't needlessly complicated and the point isn't to trick the reader into wildly off-base or over-the-top-speculation

, you come up with a needlessly complicated and speculative idea that assumes the existence of secrets we have no clues about.

1Eneasz13y

I don't see how self-awareness makes any sort of difference? Either explanation fits 100% of the known facts. Harry assumes the Hat pranked him because that's what he wants to believe. But that Harry was actually sorted into Slytherin is considered more likely by several intelligent characters in the story. Regarding Quirrell's belief of this, Harry even admits: What evidence does Harry have that Quirrell lacks? The only relevant special knowledge he has is that the Sorting Hat had some extra ability to appreciate humor at the time of his sorting, and wanted to steer him to Hufflepuff. I don't consider that strong evidence. However it is the reason that I even allow a 50% chance that the prank really did occur, as opposed to being 80%+ certain that Harry is actually Slytherin. And what sort of evidence did Quirrell have that Harry lacked? A knowledge of how Dumbledore works, how the various factions in the school mesh, and the history of the Sorting Hat's lack of screwing around when it comes to the business of sorting. Harry knows all those now, but he's already fixated on his previous answer and doesn't want to abandon it. We've been given more than just clues - we've been told directly by two characters that Harry is actually Slytherin, indirectly by at least one, and have Harry's actions to judge him by. When the most intelligent and rational character in the fic considers this the simplest/most probable answer, I don't think it's that complicated or speculative. It may very well be a large flashing neon sign by the author saying "Hey! Consider this hypothesis! This one right here that I've repeated several times and pointed out how likely it seems!"

675th13y

You said: But you did not consider that since the Sorting Hat was sentient for the first time in its existence, it would be very likely to do other things for the first time in its existence. Seriously? Harry knows the entirety of his conversation with the Hat, which no one else knows. In that conversation the Hat used all of Harry's knowledge and vocabulary to try to convince him to go to Hufflepuff, Harry obstinately refused, the Hat got pissed at Harry's obstinacy, and then, with Harry demanding to go to Ravenclaw, and the Hat admitting that only Harry's choices can determine where he belongs, the Hat says "You deserve the scary thing I'm about to do to you" and calls out "Slytherin!" and lets Harry stew on that for eight full seconds before calling out "Ravenclaw!" That is hardly a mere "extra ability to appreciate humor". Yes, he does, but he does not have all the information necessary to come to an informed conclusion. Harry does, and so do we. Harry and we are the only ones privy to his conversation with the sentient Sorting Hat. And when thinking about the above passage on a more "meta" level, if Eliezer had intended us to have any lingering doubts about the Sorting, he would not have have flatly had our protagonist say "Professor Quirrell was wrong," and he certainly would not have gone on to point out, in the very passage you quoted, that Quirrell did not have all the evidence available to him, so as to corroborate his statement. I know you want this to be a mystery, but there are plenty of other mysteries in this story to wonder about that are far more deserving of your attention than this matter, which was settled many chapters ago.

0Joshua Hobbes13y

I wonder, what was its last prank?

1pedanterrific13y

The actual quote is 800 years, which is how long the Hat's existed.

1Osuniev12y

HPMOR!Harry's wand signalled itself to him by BLUE and BRONZE sparks, while Canon!Harry's one made red and gold. (IMO as a reference to the Phoenix, not Griffindor). I'd take it as a strong hint from EY that Ravenclaw IS Harry true House.

[-]Desrtopa13y00

If you suffer far lesser consequences than if your opponent were victorious, you didn't lose. Obviously, yes, you lose things in the process, unless you have a ludicrous mismatch like the Anglo-Zanzibar War, but if you're going by a definition by which nearly anyone who has fought in a war on any side has lost, you're being misleading and abusing your words.

[-]bogdanb13y00

A couple of questions on HP lore:

1) If Lucius should happen to have an “accident”, does Draco have any living adult relatives close enough to manage his inheritance until majority? Lucius seems to have no siblings, his mother is dead, he never mentions grand-parents—in fact, I can’t actually recall any living Malfoy being mentioned, and other than Sirius and Belatrix I don’t know any Blacks alive. This tree has a Nymphadora Tonks as a cousin (or maybe aunt?), but I don’t think she qualifies. (Sirius is even less closely-related to Harry and did get tempora... (read more)

2loserthree13y

1) Andromeda Tonks née Black. There are reasons that might not work, with the disowning and so forth. It's likely Lucius has a godparent lined up like any responsible parent. 2) As far as I can find, it is not laid out why it is Dumbledore as opposed to anyone else in general. (In specific it is not this person or that person for whatever reasons, but never mind that.) I would wildly speculate that it is because Dumbledore wanted to be the guardian of the Boy-Who-Lived and no one could tell him no.

0bogdanb13y

You’re right, didn’t notice she would still be alive. Well, Andromeda and Nymphadora were both in the Order of the Phoenix, so them getting Draco would be similar to Dumbledore getting him. And given that pure-blood families seem to be rather “sparse”, at least since the war, and Lucius is about the hardest of that faction to get rid of, then even if Draco has another living relative or a designated guardian that shouldn’t be a huge obstacle, unless there is a very complex guardianship chain set-up. So it seems like there should be other ways of dealing with the debt than simply paying it. I’m pretty sure Harry wouldn’t do that unless Lucius does something really stupid, but he probably could do it (using a Dementor is the only idea I have; he probably could think of more). But at least Dumbledore and Quirell should be powerful enough to do it, and might conceivable want to. For example, if Quirell wanted to separate Harry from Draco and Hermione, and this plot doesn’t achieve that (I’m not sure how Draco will feel about Harry and Hermione now), he could try doing it the other way around by framing Harry for an attack on Lucius: Draco would hate Harry and Hermione could at least stop being his friend, if they’re both convinced. He might even convince Harry that Dumbledore is to blame at the same time. Hmm, I wonder if you could fake Dementation by creative abuse of Obliviation.

[-]bogdanb13y00

Interesting fact: just making her angry was not enough for setting up the murder attempt. She had to accuse Draco of plotting and overcome his magic, in public, to have him forced into a duel. Also, if the death-blow itself was faked, a public duel would not have been enough, Draco had to think of the first private duel.

Thus, if it is a plot to frame Hermione, whoever did it was really good (or ridiculously lucky) at predicting the consequences, not just Hermione’s reaction. So either its an extremely good Xanathos gambit, and everything was anticipated, o... (read more)

0clgroft13y

Or he could just be tracking everything that happened to Draco. Q has admitted to casting alarm charms on him. In fact, it just occurred to me that Q could very well have been using Legilimency on Draco as well. Would the Aurors have checked for that? Would Lucius?

2pedanterrific13y

Quirrell seems to think it's a real possibility:

0clgroft13y

That's what made me think of it!

[-]hairyfigment13y00

No, for a qualitative change in various probabilities we can ask if Dumbledore has unpleasant associations with burning -- like a memory of something he wishes he didn't (have to) do, or of a sad time for his family. These would reduce the chance that he sees "setting fire to a chicken" as clever.

Seems like a sadistic DD who killed Narcissa would enjoy alluding to this event, in a way that would disturb Harry without making him suspect the purpose behind it. But that seems to me like a more complicated hypothesis than a Dumbledore who shares Donny's suspicions, given that DD looks like a 'bad guy' of a radically different kind.

0[anonymous]13y

Ok, I'm a bit lost here, I haven't dealt with probabilties for several years and would like to find out where I was wrong. Please correct my reasoning: P(Dumbledore did it \bigcap Dumbledore is a Sadist) =P (Dumbledore did it) x P(Dumbledore is a Sadist) P(Dumbledore did it)=1-P(Dumbledore didn't do it) P(Dumbledore didn't do it)=P(Dumbledore didn't do it | He burned a real chicken) + P(Dumbledore didn't do it | He burned something transfigured to be a chicken). Now, we don't know the probabilities P(He burned a real chicken) and P(He burned something transfigured to be a chicken), but it is something that has to be taken into account, isn't it? @your answer In your answer, you assume he did it. If he didn't do it, he wouldn't neccessarily have negative associations with burning, only with the fact of being thought to have burned her.

0[anonymous]13y

If I understand you correctly, your reasoning regarding unpleasant associations with burning already assumes that he did it. If he didn't do it (and we don't know yet wether it was him or, for example, Amelia Bones), he wouldn't have unpleasant associations with the method of Narcissa's death, only with the fact that it was ascribed to him. So there is the possibility that he didn't do it, and doesn't have negative associations with burning that would be brought up when burning transfigured stones or tablecloth or whatever.

[-]pedanterrific13y00

I initially wrote 'create breathable air out of thin air' and then couldn't resist.

[-]thomblake13y00

Weird - I didn't see that the first time.

Out of curiosity, is there a relevant distinction between "extra powers" and "certain rights" as used here?

0loserthree13y

Only that one is what Dumbledore said and I quoted, and the other is what you thought I'd left out.

[-]pedanterrific13y00

I don't get it. Why did you quote my first link?

[-]kilobug13y00

To me the "boo" issue is somehow a way for Harry to remind everyone he's still a child, to both unsettle them a bit more and make them more prone to forgive his impertinence.

Or maybe it's not that calculated. After all, Harry is still a child, as smart and rationalist as he is, and it just pleased him to say "boo" and he didn't think much about that part, not sure.

[-]gwern13y00

It sounds like a modern thing, such retirements usually have loopholes or exceptions, and Patronus casting would start either in Hogwarts or Auror training; all of which could push Aurors well over the century mark.

[-]MartinB13y00

You don't inherit from the fetus, the fetus is the one getting the inheritance. Which makes sense, since she is related to the person who died. This might cause problems once someone makes a kid with frozen sperm of a dead person.

0Alsadius13y

Think of this situation. 1) Dad dies. 2) Fetus inherits. 3) Mom gets an abortion. 4) Does Mom inherit? And if so, did we just give her a huge financial incentive to kill her kid?

1TheOtherDave13y

Well, she certainly has a financial incentive to terminate her pregnancy in that scenario. She also has a financial incentive to murder her co-parent. (Still more so if Mom can inherit directly from Dad.) Also, given the costs of bearing and raising a child, I'd expect that most pregnant women have a financial incentive to terminate their pregnancies.

0Alsadius13y

But killing Dad is murder, and you go to jail for that. Killing Baby is an outpatient procedure. with no legal sanction(and, in many places, outright subsidization). I'd say that the situations differ.

1TheOtherDave13y

The situations differ in several ways, including their legal status. You were discussing financial incentives, and I responded accordingly. If your actual intention is to discuss more generally the similarities and differences between killing fetuses and adults (or babies and adults, if you prefer that language), then I'll drop out here.

0Alsadius13y

No, a generic debate about abortion is the last thing I want to partake in. It makes everybody stupid, and I suspect that I'm on the same side as most people here anyways. I just find this particular situation interesting, and that seemed like convenient shorthand.

0MartinB13y

Good for us that few people are mother economicae.

0TheOtherDave13y

I do not know what that phrase means.

2Alsadius13y

I think it's a riff on "homo economicus" - i.e., the theory that humans are rational economic actors.

0MartinB13y

Yes, that is what I was aiming at. If it is the rational choice to end a pregnancy, than it is good for us that not everyone in the past did so. I am aware that the OP wrote about the financial incentive, not about the most rational choice.

0Alsadius13y

I'm speaking of a peculiar situation, not of a generic pregnancy. Still, I suppose that as "financial reasons to have an abortion" go, the fact that not having one obliges you to raise a kid does seem like it ought to weigh highly...

[-]MatthewBaker13y00

Robin in Quirrell is apparent at times but Quirrell still seems quite Eliezer based to me :)

0Normal_Anomaly13y

True. I said "on the subject of most people's psychology" because that's where the similarities to Hanson are strongest and also because that's the subject where he's competing for "most wise".

[-]taelor13y00

Mudblood means non-pure ancestry, and is thus broader than muggleborn; the children of two muggleborns would still be considered to be mudblooded, despite both parents being wizards.

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1pedanterrific13y

Where did you get this idea?

[-]Percent_Carbon13y00

A) Dumbledore argues that Dumbledore is a better moral ideal than Fawks, but he doesn't do it very well
B) Even if we are in a universe that runs on causality, we often misunderstand how the causality mechanics interact with us. Likewise, Dumbledor thinks he is the eccentric mentor when sometimes he is the obstructive zealout.

[-]Alsadius13y00

I can't speak to silver, but I know that gold had two important dates - there was 1933, when FDR banned private gold ownership, and then there was IIRC 1971, when Bretton Woods collapsed and Nixon formally ended gold convertibility. For the decades in between, gold notes were formally convertible, but not to ordinary citizens, only to banks(generally, foreign central banks).

0Logos0113y

The ban on gold wasn't indefinite, IIRC. It doesn't much matter though.

0Alsadius13y

It wasn't repealed until the Ford administration.

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