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Jonathan_Elmer comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 - Less Wrong
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I doubt she remembers any of that conversation.
I hadn't thought of that.
On the other hand, those statements seemed like manipulation to a purpose, and it's hard to see what's the point if you're going to wipe the memory of it away.
She doesn't remember * that iteration * of the conversation. She remembers the last one (unless it was obliviated after the duel), which is the one where she was successfully manipulated.
He obliviated Blaise, he'll have obliviated Hermione.
Yes, technically it looks like he obliviated her much later -- after the final conversation led her to either curse Draco or think thoughts that made that story halfway plausible.
In theory, the groundhog day attack could be only indirectly related to current events. The obsessive paranoia could merely be a side-effect of H&C trying to gain information, and the botched duel an unforeseen consequence.
I don't actually think that's the case, but it's a plausible enough scenario.
Interesting fact: just making her angry was not enough for setting up the murder attempt. She had to accuse Draco of plotting and overcome his magic, in public, to have him forced into a duel. Also, if the death-blow itself was faked, a public duel would not have been enough, Draco had to think of the first private duel.
Thus, if it is a plot to frame Hermione, whoever did it was really good (or ridiculously lucky) at predicting the consequences, not just Hermione’s reaction. So either its an extremely good Xanathos gambit, and everything was anticipated, or a completely unplanned series of consequences that just happened to have a lot of results all of which are in favor of a certain bad guy. On narrative grounds I lean towards the first version.
Hmm. On second thought, it could be just that someone set-up a very volatile situation and took advantage of each resulting opportunity instantly with extreme precision, but that seems about as hard as predicting all the consequences outright.
Or he could just be tracking everything that happened to Draco. Q has admitted to casting alarm charms on him.
In fact, it just occurred to me that Q could very well have been using Legilimency on Draco as well. Would the Aurors have checked for that? Would Lucius?
Quirrell seems to think it's a real possibility:
That's what made me think of it!
She had three drops of Veritaserum, she would have mentioned that last iteration if she remembered it, but it’s apparent that her anger is not justified. So she was certainly obliviated before the interrogation.
I don't think the point of the groundhogs day attack was to find a convincing lie. I'm pretty sure the point was to identify a convincing memory. Once that was identified the entire conversation was oblivated and the false memory inserted.