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Alicorn comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (July 2012) - Less Wrong
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They run strongly in families (although it's not clear exactly how, since neither of Katara's parents appears to have been a waterbender). It's not really random.
You are correct. I wouldn't consider it much different from personality. It's part heritable, part environmental and upbringing, and part randomness.
Now you've got me wondering if philosophers in the Avatar universe have debates on whether your element/bending is nature vs nurture.
Now I want an ATLA fanfic infused with Star Trek-style pensive philosophizing. :D
I would argue that it has even more potential than HP for a rationalist makeover. Aang stays in the iceberg and Sokka saves the planet?