wedrifid comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (July 2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: ciphergoth 18 July 2012 05:24PM

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Comment author: wedrifid 29 July 2012 02:03:03AM 2 points [-]

Hello everyone, Like many people, I come to this site via an interest in transhumanism, although it seems unlikely to me that FAI implementing CEV can actually be designed before the singularity

Many here would agree with you. (And, for instance, consider a ~10% chance of success better than near certain extinction.)

Comment author: skeptical_lurker 29 July 2012 07:24:38PM 0 points [-]

I agree that 10% chance of success is better than near zero, and furthermore I agree that expected utility maximization means that putting in a great deal of effort to achieve a positive outcome is wiser than saying "oh well, we're doomed anyway, might as well party hard and make the most of the time we have left". However, the question is whether, if FAI has a low probability of success, are other possibilities, e.g. tool AI a better option to pursue?

Comment author: [deleted] 29 July 2012 02:15:37AM 0 points [-]

Many here would agree with you. (And, for instance, consider a ~10% chance of success better than near certain extinction.)

Would you say that many people here (and yourself?) believe that the probable end of our species is within the next century or two?

Comment author: Nornagest 29 July 2012 03:01:21AM 1 point [-]

The last survey reported that Less Wrongers on average believe that humanity has about a 68% chance of surviving the century without a disaster killing >90% of the species. (Median 80%, though, which might be a better measure of the community feeling than the mean in this case.) That's a lower bar than actual extinction, but also a shorter timescale, so I expect the answer to your question would be in the same ballpark.

Comment author: wedrifid 29 July 2012 03:07:12AM *  0 points [-]

Would you say that many people here (and yourself?) believe that the probable end of our species is within the next century or two?

For myself: Yes! p(extinct within 200 years) > 0.5