Mass_Driver comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (July 2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: ciphergoth 18 July 2012 05:24PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (843)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Mass_Driver 29 July 2012 05:20:16AM 2 points [-]

The way to bridge that gap is to only volunteer predictions when you're quite confident, and otherwise stay quiet, change the subject, or murmur a polite assent. You're absolutely right that explicitly declaring a 65% confidence estimate will make you look indecisive -- but people aren't likely to notice that you make predictions less often than other people -- they'll be too focused on how when you do make predictions, you have an uncanny tendency to be correct...and also that you're pleasantly modest and demure, too.