You can always contrive scenarios to reward or punish any particular decision theory. The Transparent Newcomb's Problem rewards agents which one-box in the Transparent Newcomb's Problem over agents which two-box, but unless this sort of problem is more likely to arise than ones which reward agents which two-box in Transparent Newcomb's Problem over ones that one-box, that isn't an an argument favoring decision theories which say you should one-box in Transparent Newcomb's.
No, Transparent Newcomb's, Newcomb's and Prisoner's Dilemma with full mutual knowledge don't care what the decision algorithm is. They reward agents that take one box and mutually cooperate for no other reason than they decide to make the decision that benefits them.
You have presented a fully general argument for making bad choices. It can be used to reject "look both ways before crossing a road" just as well as it can be used to reject "get a million dollars by taking one box". It should be applied to neither.
It's not a fully general counterargument, it demands that you weigh the probabilities of potential outcomes.
If you look both ways at a crosswalk, you could be hit by a falling object that you would have avoided if you hadn't paused in that location. Does that justify not looking both ways at a crosswalk? No, because the probability of something bad happening to you if you don't look both ways at the crosswalk is higher than if you do.
You can always come up with absurd hypotheticals which would punish the behavior that would normally be rational in a parti...
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