faul_sname comments on [Link] Social interventions gone wrong - Less Wrong

24 [deleted] 20 August 2012 09:24AM

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Comment author: faul_sname 20 August 2012 10:10:12PM 1 point [-]

Here are my results. P(yes) is the probability I gave that a given intervention worked before I saw the answers.

Question | P(yes) | Answer
1 | 0.2 | NO
2 | 0.7 | YES
3 | 0.2 | NO
4 | 0.4 | NO
5 | 0.5 | NO
6 | 0.4 | NO
7 | 0.3 | YES
8 | 0.4 | NO

My average probability rating was 0.39. My average probability rating for correct answers was 0.5, and my average probability rating for incorrect answers was 0.35.

If I do better than chance at this, it's not by much.

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