Kaj_Sotala comments on Rationality Quotes September 2012 - Less Wrong

7 Post author: Jayson_Virissimo 03 September 2012 05:18AM

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Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 02 September 2012 07:12:41PM 2 points [-]
Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 03 September 2012 09:41:21AM *  3 points [-]

Arguably, assigning a particular floating point number between 0.0 and 1.0 to represent subjective degrees of belief is a specialized skill and it could take years of practice in order to become fluent in numerical-probability-speak.* Another possibility is that it merely adds a kind of pseudo-precision without any benefit over natural language.

In any case, it seems to be an empirical question and so should be answered with empirical data. I guess we won't really know until we have a good-sized number of people using things such as PredictionBook for extended periods of time. I'll keep you posted.

*There does exist rigorously defined verbal probabilities, but as far as I know they haven't been used much since the Late Middle Ages/Early Modern Period.

Comment author: gwern 01 October 2012 12:53:51AM 1 point [-]

I'd like to see more on those verbal probabilities, having stated to use my own since few satisfactory existing versions.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 October 2012 11:23:40AM *  2 points [-]

Potest legistis linguam Latinam? If not, then you might want to read The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability before Pascal by James Franklin for an overview of the tradition I was referring to.

Comment author: gwern 02 October 2012 02:23:46PM 0 points [-]

I'll give it a look.