AspiringRationalist comments on Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1) - Less Wrong

32 Post author: Morendil 09 October 2012 03:49PM

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Comment author: AspiringRationalist 10 October 2012 05:41:38PM 1 point [-]

Just because you use "75%" as a shorthand for "I'm pretty sure" doesn't mean you are thinking probabilistically; you must train the skill of seeing that for some events, its complement "25%" also counts as "I'm pretty sure".

Would expressing these things in terms of odds rather than probability make it easier to avoid this error?

Comment author: Morendil 10 October 2012 06:33:18PM 0 points [-]

Dunno. I have trouble with odds, for some reason, and rarely if ever think in terms of odds.

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