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TraderJoe comments on Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1) - Less Wrong
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Comments (108)
[comment deleted]
The transliteration does, but the actual Arabic means "V'z Sebz Nzrevpn".
So in fact TraderJoe's prediction of 0.5 was a simple average over the two statements given, and everyone else giving a prediction failed to take into account that the answer could be neither "true" nor "false".
Not according to google translate. Incidentally, that string is particularly easy to uncypher by inspection.
[comment deleted]
Yeah, that's an interesting discrepancy.