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TheOtherDave comments on Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1) - Less Wrong
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Comments (108)
I assume you mean without looking it up.
My answer is roughly the same as TimS's... it mostly depends on "Would TraderJoe pick a true statement in this context or a false one?" Which in turn mostly depends on "Would a randomly selected LWer pick a true statement in this context or a false one?" since I don't know much about you as a distinct individual.
I seem to have a prior probability somewhat above 50% for "true", though thinking about it I'm not sure why exactly that is.
Looking it up, it amuses me to discover that I'm still not sure if it's true.