Kindly comments on Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1) - Less Wrong

32 Post author: Morendil 09 October 2012 03:49PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (108)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Kindly 11 October 2012 02:44:27PM 0 points [-]

The transliteration does, but the actual Arabic means "V'z Sebz Nzrevpn".

So in fact TraderJoe's prediction of 0.5 was a simple average over the two statements given, and everyone else giving a prediction failed to take into account that the answer could be neither "true" nor "false".