Thanks. Your prediction is now recorded on PredictionBook.

I hope you don't take it personally, but my estimate that you'll have the essay ready by tomorrow is lower than yours. Even those who, like Kahneman, know that the inside view yields overoptimistic estimates in cases of this sort tend to rely on it more than they should.

Of course, the fact that I'm making this prediction might also enter into the feedback loop you describe. I suspect the overall effect is that your prediction is now more likely to be true as a consequence of my having publicly given a lower estimate than you did.