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Pablo_Stafforini comments on Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1) - Less Wrong
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I really, really want to answer "shortly" and leave it at that.
But since you ask, 45% chance I'll do it tomorrow, 25% over the week-end, 10% monday, and 20% later than monday.
Predictions involving what I'm gonna do are trickier for me, because there's a feedback loop between the act of making a prediction, and my likelihood of taking the corresponding actions once the prediction has turned them into a public commitment; it's a complicated one which sometimes triggers procrastination, sometimes increased motivation.
Thanks. Your prediction is now recorded on PredictionBook.
I hope you don't take it personally, but my estimate that you'll have the essay ready by tomorrow is lower than yours. Even those who, like Kahneman, know that the inside view yields overoptimistic estimates in cases of this sort tend to rely on it more than they should.
Of course, the fact that I'm making this prediction might also enter into the feedback loop you describe. I suspect the overall effect is that your prediction is now more likely to be true as a consequence of my having publicly given a lower estimate than you did.
Congrats!