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Pablo_Stafforini comments on Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1) - Less Wrong
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By the way, when you say "I really, really want to answer 'shortly'", is this just because you sometimes dislike giving precise estimates, or do you think there is sometimes a rational justification for this reluctance? Without having thought about the matter carefully, it seems to me that the only valid reason for abstaining from giving precise estimates is that one's audience might make assumptions about the reliability of the estimate from the fact that it is expressed in precise language (more precision suggests higher reliability). But provided one gives independent reliability measures (by e.g. being explicit about one's confidence intervals), can this reluctance still be justified?
It's because it's now 3am and I've stuck a knife in the back of my tomorrow-self, who will wake up sleep deprived, so that my present-self (with a 1500 word first draft completed) can enjoy the certainty of hitting an estimate which was only that, not a commitment. Hyperbolic discounting is a royal pain.
It's because I'm a sucker for this kind of thing, as are many of my colleagues working in software development. :-/