Kindly comments on Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1) - Less Wrong
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Comments (108)
If the objective is to get better scores than others, then that helps, though it's not clear to me that it does so in any consistent way (in particular, the strategy to maximize your score and the strategy to get the best score with the highest probability may well be different, and one of them might involve mis-reporting your own degree of belief).