RobertLumley comments on Causal Diagrams and Causal Models - Less Wrong

61 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 October 2012 09:49PM

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Comment author: RobertLumley 15 October 2012 06:23:56PM 3 points [-]

Well, that suggests that the probability of using Reddit, given that your weight is normal, is the same as the probability that you use Reddit, given that you're overweight. 47,222 out of 334,366 normal-weight people use Reddit, and 12,240 out of 88,376 overweight people use Reddit. That's about 14% either way

Nitpick, but I had busted out Excel at this point, and this is actually 16% either way.

Comment author: somervta 16 October 2012 05:31:09AM 2 points [-]

I suspect you're using Excel wrong. Try it with a standard calculator and you get: 47,222/334,366 = 0.141241146630934 or 14.1% 12,240/88,376 = 0.138499140038019 or 13.8%

Comment author: RobertLumley 16 October 2012 05:42:54AM 0 points [-]

Oh whoops! I forgot that I didn't actually calculate the true percentage - I was just taking the ratio for comparisons sake. Then when he said 14% it stuck out to me as wrong. Thanks for correcting me.

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