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sixes_and_sevens comments on Open Thread, October 16-31, 2012 - Less Wrong
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Comments (271)
The Wason selection task is a good go-to example of confirmation bias.
Well the thing is that people actually get this right in real life (e.g. with the rule 'to drink you must be over 18'). I need something that occurs in real life and people fail at it.
They get it correct when it's in an appropriate social context, not simply because it's happening in real life. If it didn't happen in real life, confirmation bias wouldn't be a real thing.
Right, but I want to use a closer to real life situation or example that reduces to the wason selection task (and people fail at it) and use that as the demonstration, so that people can see themselves fail in a real life situation, rather than in a logical puzzle. People already realize they might not be very good at generalized logic/math, I'm trying to demonstrate that the general logic applies to real life as well.
No, people are more likely to get it right in real life. Some fraction of your audience will get it wrong, even with ages and drinks.
To a first approximation, people get it right in real life.