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Kindly comments on Open Thread, October 16-31, 2012 - Less Wrong
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90% might not be the best number for demonstrating the idea of a confidence interval. It's too close to 100%. There's not much room to be underconfident. What about 50% confidence intervals?
Have you tried it? I have, and I can tell you most people I tried it on are over-confident when asked for 90% intervals.