Consider various brands of Wiggin.

• For whatever reason, Wiggins are usually born to disadvantaged families, and must live off. ketchup and steal simply to survive. They often have trouble breaking these habits when they are fortunate enough to escape their poverty
• The genes responsible for black hair and green eyes are heavily correlated with the ones causing kleptomania and a craving for ketchup.
• Wiggins are constantly expected to steal and eat ketchup, and people generally behave as society expects.

Now, in all these situations Wiggins do, in fact, steal and eat ketchup. However, in the first case, once we know that this particular wiggin grew up in a well-to-do environment, we should no longer expext them to steal our ketchup. In addition, we should expect anyone who grew up in a disadvantaged home to act "wiggin-like", not just those with black hair and green eyes.

In the second case, there is no need to consider the upbringing of a particular Wiggin, since they all have similar odds of stealing our ketchup.

Not entirely, since the environment where a particular Wiggin grew up, is affected by his parents' genes.

In this case, however, we can perform genetic tests to identify whatever genes may be causing this problem; and of course there is a case to be made for sterilizing Wiggins to prevent their criminal genes from spreading - especially to non-wiggins, who would interfere with our ability to judge the likelihood of ketchup-theft by a particular individual.

In the third case, we have something of a dilemma. On the one hand, we need to protect our ketchup from thieving Wiggins. On the other hand, assuming any Wiggin will try and steal it will only encourage them. In this case, while we realize that a wiggin-like appearance is a risk factor for ketchup-theft, we must strive to treat them equally; only hiding our ketchup if we know they already steal (and we should do likewise to non-wiggins.)

This makes a lot of assumptions about psychology that are not at all obvious. For example, it might be that if Wiggins have less opportunity to steal ketchup, fewer of them will do it and eventually the strength of the expectation itself will decrease.