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Kaj_Sotala comments on Self-assessment in expert AI predictions - Less Wrong
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Thanks for making the post, Stuart.
In case anyone's wondering, this post doesn't mention the surveys from AGI conferences because anyone participating in those will be extremely self-selected. XiXiDu's interview series is somewhat better, in that he also contacted names in mainstream AI, but he also spoke to a number of folks who were specifically chosen for working in the field of AGI so that's not a representative sample either.
Do you mean the people at AGI conferences are extremely self-selected in the sense of them choosing to be in AGI or to attend the conference, or do you mean that within the conference, there is strong selection regarding who chooses to do the surveys?
The former.