Stuart_Armstrong comments on Reflection in Probabilistic Logic - Less Wrong

63 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 24 March 2013 04:37PM

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Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 26 March 2013 01:18:56PM 0 points [-]

Ok, for [a < P('G') < b] I see why you'd use a schema (because it's an object level axiom, not a meta-language axiom).

But this still seems possibly problematic. We know that adding axioms like [-1 < P('G') < 1] --> [P('-1 < P('G') < 1') = 1], would break the system. But I don't see a reason to suppose that the other reflection axioms don't break the system. It might or it might not, but I'm not sure; was there a proof along the lines of "this system is inconsistent if and only if the initial system is" or something?

Comment author: Benja 26 March 2013 02:14:51PM 1 point [-]

I'm not sure whether I'm misunderstanding your point, but the paper proves that there is a coherent probability distribution P(.) that assigns probability 1 to both T and to the collection of reflection axioms [a < P('G') < b] for P(.); this implies that there is a probability distribution over complete theories assigning probability 1 to (T + the reflection axioms for P). But if (T + the reflection axioms for P) were inconsistent, then there would be no complete theory extending it, so this would be the empty event and would have to be assigned probability 0 by any coherent probability distribution. It follows that (T + the reflection axioms for P) is consistent. (NB: by "the reflection axioms for P(.)", I only mean the appropriate instances of [a < P('G') < b], not anything that quantifies over a, b or G inside the object language.)